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基于失效概率的边坡降雨阈值曲面探讨

邓夕胜 张元 唐煜

邓夕胜, 张元, 唐煜. 2021: 基于失效概率的边坡降雨阈值曲面探讨. 中国地质灾害与防治学报, 32(3): 70-75. doi: 10.16031/j.cnki.issn.1003-8035.2021.03-09
引用本文: 邓夕胜, 张元, 唐煜. 2021: 基于失效概率的边坡降雨阈值曲面探讨. 中国地质灾害与防治学报, 32(3): 70-75. doi: 10.16031/j.cnki.issn.1003-8035.2021.03-09
Xisheng DENG, Yuan ZHANG, Yu TANG. 2021: Investigation on slope rainfall threshold surface based on failure probablolity. The Chinese Journal of Geological Hazard and Control, 32(3): 70-75. doi: 10.16031/j.cnki.issn.1003-8035.2021.03-09
Citation: Xisheng DENG, Yuan ZHANG, Yu TANG. 2021: Investigation on slope rainfall threshold surface based on failure probablolity. The Chinese Journal of Geological Hazard and Control, 32(3): 70-75. doi: 10.16031/j.cnki.issn.1003-8035.2021.03-09

基于失效概率的边坡降雨阈值曲面探讨

doi: 10.16031/j.cnki.issn.1003-8035.2021.03-09
基金项目: 国家自然科学基金青年基金项目(51808470)
详细信息
    作者简介:

    邓夕胜(1977-),男,四川南部人,硕士,副教授,主要从事结构工程与防灾减灾研究。E-mail:dxish@swpu.edu.cn

    通讯作者:

    张 元(1993-),男,四川成都人,土木工程专业,硕士,工程师,主要从事土木工程施工方面的工作。E-mail:djyaizhang@163.com

  • 中图分类号: P642;U213.1+3

Investigation on slope rainfall threshold surface based on failure probablolity

  • 摘要: 降雨是诱发边坡变形失稳的主要因素,而针对降雨型边坡的预警预报也一直是工程领域的核心问题。本文将蒙特卡罗方法引入降雨型滑坡的预警预报,首先基于正态分布的岩土体物理力学参数,建立了边坡的有限元数值计算模型,并分析了9种不同型式降雨下边坡稳定性系数的变化情况。结果显示递增型降雨对边坡的稳定性尤为不利,均匀型降雨次之,递减型降雨影响最小。其次,将降雨过程划分为前期降雨+当期降雨,并确定了前期降雨对于当期降雨的有效时间为6 d。最后,论文结合可靠度理论,选取失效概率Pf=10%作为预警指标,通过把前期降雨引入降雨强度-降雨历时关系曲线并作为第三坐标轴,最终将该曲线扩展成为前期降雨(A)-当期降雨(I)-降雨历时(D)曲面(A-I-D阈值曲面),研究结果对于降雨型边坡的预警预报具有一定的指导意义。
  • 图  1  边坡模型尺寸参数 (单位:m)

    Figure  1.  Dimension parameters of model slope (unit:m)

    图  2  网格剖分图

    Figure  2.  Model of finite element mesh

    图  3  黏聚力C、内摩擦角$\varphi $、重度$\gamma $分布曲线

    Figure  3.  Distribution curves of unit cohesion C, internal friction angel $\varphi $ and weight $\gamma $

    图  4  A-I-D阈值曲面(失效概率Pf=10%)

    Figure  4.  A-I-D threshold surface (failure probability Pf=10%)

    图  5  A-I-D等值线图(失效概率Pf=10%)

    Figure  5.  A-I-D contour map (failure probability Pf=10%)

    表  1  岩土体物理力学参数

    Table  1.   Physical and mechanical parameters of rock and soil mass

    覆土参数C/kPa$\varphi $/ (°)$\gamma $/ (kN·m−3)${k_{{\rm{sat}}} }$/ (m·d−1)
    均值2022180.65
    最小值151713
    最大值252723
    下载: 导出CSV

    表  2  不同降雨型式下边坡的稳定性系数变化

    Table  2.   Variation of slope stability coefficient under different rainfall types

    降雨类型初始稳定性系数非均匀降雨稳定性系数均匀降雨稳定性系数
    直线递增1.0911.0211.038
    正弦递增1.0911.0241.038
    余弦递增1.0911.0151.038
    圆弧递增1.0911.0201.038
    直线递减1.0911.0521.038
    正弦递减1.0911.0561.038
    余弦递减1.0911.0481.038
    圆弧递减1.0911.0591.038
    下载: 导出CSV
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出版历程
  • 收稿日期:  2020-08-09
  • 修回日期:  2020-09-20
  • 刊出日期:  2021-06-25

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