ISSN 1003-8035 CN 11-2852/P

    四川省南江县降雨型滑坡降雨阈值研究

    Study on the rainfall threshold for rainfall-induced landslides in Nanjiang County, Sichuan Province

    • 摘要: 南江县位于四川省东部山地丘陵红层区,每年雨季降雨型滑坡灾害多发。以2016-2021年82个滑坡构建样本库,基于距离滑坡最近雨量计的降雨数据,计算得到滑坡的当日累计降雨量E、降雨历时D、平均降雨量I以及前期累计降雨量A。针对当日降雨,绘制I-D、E-DE-I散点图;针对前期降雨与当日降雨,绘制E-A5、E-A10和E-A15散点图。根据面积聚类法,提出该地区4级预警模型,并通过历史降雨诱发群发性滑坡事件和近期滑坡监测数据进行了降雨阈值验证。研究结果表明:(1)该地区滑坡与当日峰值雨强R、当日累计雨量E和前期累计雨量A密切相关;(2)lgI-lgD、lgE-lgIR-E、E-A5、E-A10和E-A15阈值模型分类效果较好,可用于分级预警。研究成果可为四川红层山区降雨型滑坡预警提供经验指导。

       

      Abstract: Nanjiang County is located in the red bed regions of the mountainous and hilly region of eastern Sichuan Province, where rainfall-induced landslides frequently occur during the rainy season. This study constructed a database of 82 landslide events from 2016 to 2021. Using rainfall data from the gauges closest to each landslide, four key variables were calculated: cumulative rainfall amount (E), rainfall duration (D), average rainfall intensity (I), and antecedent cumulative rainfall amount (A). To analyze the influence of current rainfall, scatter plots of I-D (intensity-duration), E-D (cumulative rainfall-duration), and E-I (cumulative rainfall-intensity) were generated. For the combined effect of antecedent rainfall (preceding a given period) and current rainfall, scatter plots for E-A5, E-A10, and E-A15 were established. Based on the area clustering method, a four-level early warning model was proposed for the region, and its thresholds were validated using both historical rainfall-induced mass landslide events and recent monitoring data. The results indicate that: (1) landslides in the study area are strongly correlated with the peak rainfall intensity of the day (R), the same day cumulative rainfall (E), and the cumulative rainfall from previous periods (A); (2) threshold models such as lgI-lgD, lgE-lgI, E-A5, E-A10, and E-A15 exhibit good classification performance and are suitable for graded early warning applications. These findings provide empirical support for the development of rainfall-induced landslide early warning systems in red bed mountainous areas of Sichuan Province.

       

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