Probability analysis of landslide based on typhoon track

Ruoang LIN; Wenbin JIAN; Wen NIE

doi:10.16031/j.cnki.issn.1003-8035.202011036

Volume 33 Issue 4

Aug. 2022

Turn off MathJax

Article Contents

Abstract

References

The Chinese Journal of Geological Hazard and Control > 2022 > 33(4): 18-27. > DOI: 10.16031/j.cnki.issn.1003-8035.202011036

LIN Ruoang, JIAN Wenbin, NIE Wen. Probability analysis of landslide based on typhoon track[J]. The Chinese Journal of Geological Hazard and Control, 2022, 33(4): 18-27. DOI: 10.16031/j.cnki.issn.1003-8035.202011036

Citation:

PDF (4703 KB)

Probability analysis of landslide based on typhoon track

Ruoang LIN^{1, 2, 3,},
Wenbin JIAN^{1, 2, 3, ,},
Wen NIE^{1, 2, 3}

1.
Department of Geotechnical and Geological Engineering, Fuzhou University, Fuzhou, Fujian　350116, China
2.
Fujian Provincial Key Laboratory of Geological Hazards, Fuzhou, Fujian　350003, China
3.
Quanzhou Institute of Equipment Manufacturing Haixi Institute, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Quanzhou, Fujian　362200, China

Funds: This research is supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China（Grant No. 41861134011）.

More Information

Received Date: November 25, 2020
Revised Date: December 24, 2020
Available Online: August 28, 2022

Graphical Abstract

Abstract

Abstract

Typhoon rainstorm is the main inducing factor of landslides in southeast hills and mountains in our country. Revealing the correlation between typhoon path and landslides has important theoretical and practical significance for monitoring and early warning of typhoon-rainstorm soil landslides in southeast hills and mountains. In this paper, based on the typhoon data directly passing through Fujian Province or indirectly affecting Fujian Province from 2015 to 2019, as well as the rainfall data and typhoon-rainstorm landslide data during these typhoon events, the Kriging interpolation method in ArcGIS software is used to couple the typhoon path, rainfall data and typhoon-rainstorm landslide data. Through the logistic regression method in SPSS software, the landslide probability model based on typhoon track in Quanzhou City is obtained. Using Kriging interpolation method and logistic regression method, we take the landslide occurred during typhoon Dujuan as an example to verify the model. The correct probability of landslide caused by rainfall data measured by actual rainfall station is 77%, and the correct probability of actual landslide is 100% with a satisfactory prediction effect. Based on the actual rainfall calculation data, the false alarm rate is 21%, but the actual landslide false alarm rate is 0, which is in line with the safety. Therefore, the model can be used to predict the occurrence probability of typhoon-rainstorm landslides under the influence of typhoon passing through Quanzhou City.
- typhoon path,
- Kriging interpolation,
- logistic regression method,
- probability model

FullText(HTML)

References (19)

References

[1]	何永金. 福建省主要地质灾害的特点、成因及其对策[J]. 福建地质,1995,14(4):263 − 271. [HE Yongjin. Characteristics and mechanism of major geological hazards in Fujian Province and protection and controlling method against them[J]. Geology of Fujian,1995,14(4):263 − 271. (in Chinese with English abstract) HE Yongjin. Characteristics and mechanism of major geological hazards in Fujian Province and protection and controlling method against them[J]. Geology of Fujian, 1995, 14(4): 263-271. (in Chinese with English abstract)
[2]	池永翔. 福建省台风暴雨条件下滑坡规律性研究[J]. 地质学刊,2015,39(4):697 − 701. [CHI Yongxiang. Regularities of landslides under typhoon rainstorm conditions in Fujian Province[J]. Journal of Geology,2015,39(4):697 − 701. (in Chinese with English abstract) DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1674-3636.2015.04.697 CHI Yongxiang. Regularities of landslides under typhoon rainstorm conditions in Fujian Province[J]. Journal of Geology, 2015, 39(4): 697-701. (in Chinese with English abstract) DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1674-3636.2015.04.697
[3]	刘艳辉, 温铭生, 苏永超, 等. 台风暴雨型地质灾害时空特征及预警效果分析[J]. 水文地质工程地质,2016,43(5):119 − 126. [LIU Yanhui, WEN Mingsheng, SU Yongchao, et al. Characteristics of geo-hazards induced by typhoon rainstorm and evaluation of geo-hazards early warning[J]. Hydrogeology & Engineering Geology,2016,43(5):119 − 126. (in Chinese with English abstract) LIU Yanhui, WEN Mingsheng, SU Yongchao, et al. Characteristics of geo-hazards induced by typhoon rainstorm and evaluation of geo-hazards early warning[J]. Hydrogeology & Engineering Geology, 2016, 43(5): 119-126. (in Chinese with English abstract)
[4]	林兴旺, 简文彬, 董岩松, 等. 台风暴雨条件下福建某滑坡体的渗流稳定性分析[J]. 水利与建筑工程学报,2014,12(5):66 − 72. [LIN Xingwang, JIAN Wenbin, DONG Yansong, et al. Analysis of seepage stability of a landslide in Fujian under typhoon storm condition[J]. Journal of Water Resources and Architectural Engineering,2014,12(5):66 − 72. (in Chinese with English abstract) DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1672-1144.2014.05.013 LIN Xingwang, JIAN Wenbin, DONG Yansong, et al. Analysis of seepage stability of A landslide in Fujian under typhoon storm condition[J]. Journal of Water Resources and Architectural Engineering, 2014, 12(5): 66-72. (in Chinese with English abstract) DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1672-1144.2014.05.013
[5]	伍宇明, 兰恒星, 高星, 等. 台风暴雨型滑坡降雨阈值曲线研究:以福建地区为例[J]. 工程地质学报,2014,22(2):255 − 262. [WU Yuming, LAN Hengxing, GAO Xing, et al. Rainfall threshold of storm-induced landslides in typhoon areas:A case study of Fujian Province[J]. Journal of Engineering Geology,2014,22(2):255 − 262. (in Chinese with English abstract) DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1004-9665.2014.02.015 WU Yuming, LAN Hengxing, GAO Xing, et al. Rainfall threshold of storm-induced landslides in typhoon areas: a case study of Fujian Province[J]. Journal of Engineering Geology, 2014, 22(2): 255-262. (in Chinese with English abstract) DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1004-9665.2014.02.015
[6]	黄晓虎, 夏俊宝, 雷德鑫. 一种基于位移监测的“降雨阶跃型”滑坡预警系统[J]. 中国地质灾害与防治学报,2018,29(6):68 − 76. [HUANG Xiaohu, XIA Junbao, LEI Dexin. An early warning system for rainfall stepwise landslide based on deformation monitoring[J]. The Chinese Journal of Geological Hazard and Control,2018,29(6):68 − 76. (in Chinese with English abstract) HUANG Xiaohu, XIA Junbao, LEI Dexin. An early warning system for rainfall stepwise landslide based on deformation monitoring[J]. The Chinese Journal of Geological Hazard and Control, 2018, 29(6): 68-76. (in Chinese with English abstract)
[7]	薛源, 赵其华. 温州地区台风引发地质灾害影响因子分析[J]. 灾害学,2014,29(2):72 − 76. [XUE Yuan, ZHAO Qihua. Analysis on factors of geological hazard induced by typhoon in Wenzhou[J]. Journal of Catastrophology,2014,29(2):72 − 76. (in Chinese with English abstract) XUE Yuan, ZHAO Qihua. Analysis on factors of geological hazard induced by typhoon in Wenzhou[J]. Journal of Catastrophology, 2014, 29(2): 72-76. (in Chinese with English abstract)
[8]	CHEN C Y, WILLETT S D, WEST A J, et al. The impact of storm-triggered landslides on sediment dynamics and catchment-wide denudation rates in the southern Central Range of Taiwan following the extreme rainfall event of Typhoon Morakot[J]. Earth Surface Processes and Landforms,2020,45(3):548 − 564. DOI: 10.1002/esp.4753
[9]	张玉, 徐卫亚, 邹丽芳, 等. 降雨条件下大型滑坡体渗流稳定性分析[J]. 岩土力学,2013,34(3):833 − 841. [ZHANG Yu, XU Weiya, ZOU Lifang, et al. Analysis of seepage stability of large-scale landslide under rainfall condition[J]. Rock and Soil Mechanics,2013,34(3):833 − 841. (in Chinese with English abstract) ZHANG Yu, XU Weiya, ZOU Lifang, et al. Analysis of seepage stability of large-scale landslide under rainfall condition[J]. Rock and Soil Mechanics, 2013, 34(3): 833-841. (in Chinese with English abstract)
[10]	胡涛, 樊鑫, 李荻, 等. 贵州省思南县降雨型滑坡危险性预警研究[J]. 安全与环境工程,2020,27(3):74 − 81. [HU Tao, FAN Xin, LI Di, et al. Rainfall-induced landslide hazard warning study in Sinan County of Guizhou Province[J]. Safety and Environmental Engineering,2020,27(3):74 − 81. (in Chinese with English abstract) HU Tao, FAN Xin, LI Di, et al. Rainfall-induced landslide hazard warning study in sinan County of Guizhou Province[J]. Safety and Environmental Engineering, 2020, 27(3): 74-81. (in Chinese with English abstract)
[11]	MENDONÇA M B, GONZALEZ F C G, SILVA COELHO G V. Likelihood of landslide occurrences for definition of rainfall thresholds applied to the Quitandinha River basin, Petrópolis, Brazil[J]. Landslides,2021,18(2):583 − 593. DOI: 10.1007/s10346-020-01515-2
[12]	向小龙, 孙炜锋, 谭成轩, 等. 降雨型滑坡失稳概率计算方法[J]. 地质通报,2020,39(7):1115 − 1120. [XIANG Xiaolong, SUN Weifeng, TAN Chengxuan, et al. A discussion on the calculation method of instability probability of landslide due to rainfall[J]. Geological Bulletin of China,2020,39(7):1115 − 1120. (in Chinese with English abstract) XIANG Xiaolong, SUN Weifeng, TAN Chengxuan, et al. A discussion on the calculation method of instability probability of landslide due to rainfall[J]. Geological Bulletin of China, 2020, 39(7): 1115-1120. (in Chinese with English abstract)
[13]	卓万生. 雨强对安溪县尧山村滑坡地下水渗流系统及稳定性的影响研究[J]. 工程地质学报,2020,28(6):1311 − 1318. [ZHUO Wansheng. Influence on groundwater seepage system and stability of landslide under rainfall in Yaoshan Village, Anxi County[J]. Journal of Engineering Geology,2020,28(6):1311 − 1318. (in Chinese with English abstract) ZHUO Wansheng. Influence on groundwater seepage system and stability of landslide under rainfall in Yaoshan village, Anxi County[J]. Journal of Engineering Geology, 2020, 28(6): 1311-1318. (in Chinese with English abstract)
[14]	CHEN P, LU N, FORMETTA G, et al. Tropical storm-induced landslide potential using combined field monitoring and numerical modeling[J]. Journal of Geotechnical and Geoenvironmental Engineering,2018,144(11):05018002. DOI: 10.1061/(ASCE)GT.1943-5606.0001969
[15]	朱元甲, 贺拿, 钟卫, 等. 间歇型降雨作用下缓倾滑坡稳定性数值模拟[J]. 灾害学,2020,35(3):208 − 212. [ZHU Yuanjia, HE Na, ZHONG Wei, et al. Numerical simulation of the stability of gently landslides under intermittent rainfall[J]. Journal of Catastrophology,2020,35(3):208 − 212. (in Chinese with English abstract) DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1000-811X.2020.03.038 ZHU Yuanjia, HENA, ZHONG Wei, et al. Numerical simulation of the stability of gently landslides under intermittent rainfall[J]. Journal of Catastrophology, 2020, 35(3): 208-212. (in Chinese with English abstract) DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1000-811X.2020.03.038
[16]	盛逸凡, 李远耀, 徐勇, 等. 基于有效降雨强度和逻辑回归的降雨型滑坡预测模型[J]. 水文地质工程地质,2019,46(1):156 − 162. [SHENG Yifan, LI Yuanyao, XU Yong, et al. Prediction of rainfall-type landslides based on effective rainfall intensity and logistic regression[J]. Hydrogeology & Engineering Geology,2019,46(1):156 − 162. (in Chinese with English abstract) SHENG Yifan, LI Yuanyao, XU Yong, et al. Prediction of rainfall-type landslides based on effective rainfall intensity and logistic regression[J]. Hydrogeology & Engineering Geology, 2019, 46(1): 156-162. (in Chinese with English abstract)
[17]	陈佳松. 泉州市地质灾害现状分析与防治建议[J]. 福建地质,2010,29(增刊 1):111 − 114. [CHEN Jiasong. Analysis of geologic hazard and cure measures in the Quanzhou City[J]. Geology of Fujian,2010,29(Sup 1):111 − 114. (in Chinese with English abstract) CHEN Jiasong. Analysis of geologic hazard and cure measures in the Quanzhou City[J]. Geology of Fujian, 2010, 29(Sup 1): 111-114. (in Chinese with English abstract)
[18]	田晓璐. 太行山地形影响下的新乡市夏季降水分布特征[J]. 农业与技术,2017,37(14):217 − 218. [TIAN Xiaolu. Distribution characteristics of summer precipitation in Xinxiang City under the influence of topography of Taihang mountain[J]. Agriculture and Technology,2017,37(14):217 − 218. (in Chinese with English abstract) TIAN Xiaolu. Distribution characteristics of Summer precipitation in Xinxiang City under the influence of topography of Taihang Mountain [J]. Agriculture and Technology, 2017, 37(14): 217-218. (in Chinese with English abstract)
[19]	唐红梅, 魏来, 高阳华, 等. 基于逻辑回归的重庆地区降雨型滑坡预报模型[J]. 中国地质灾害与防治学报,2013,24(3):32 − 37. [TANG Hongmei, WEI Lai, GAO Yanghua, et al. A prediction model for rainfall-induced landslide based on logistic regression in Chongqing area[J]. The Chinese Journal of Geological Hazard and Control,2013,24(3):32 − 37. (in Chinese with English abstract) TANG Hongmei, WEI Lai, GAO Yanghua, et al. A prediction model for rainfall-induced landslide based on logistic regression in Chongqing area[J]. The Chinese Journal of Geological Hazard and Control, 2013, 24(3): 32-37. (in Chinese with English abstract)

[1]	Xirui CHEN, Siyao CHEN, Jianhong YANG, Hongqiang LIU, Zhaoping YUAN, Guobao ZHU, Xiaowen XIE, Guojun CAI. Basic characteristics and susceptibility evaluation of geological hazards in Shifang City, Sichuan Province[J]. The Chinese Journal of Geological Hazard and Control, 2024, 35(6): 153-163. DOI: 10.16031/j.cnki.issn.1003-8035.202306002
[2]	Changming HU, Simeng ZHANG, Jiazhi QIAN, Yong ZHANG. Reliability analysis of seismic subsidence of loess foundation based on Kriging surrogate model[J]. The Chinese Journal of Geological Hazard and Control, 2024, 35(6): 106-114. DOI: 10.16031/j.cnki.issn.1003-8035.202306006
[3]	Dongsheng LIU, Yue WU, Ke LI, Yanlei WANG. Quantitative risk assessment and its application for individual landslide disaster based on slope failure probability[J]. The Chinese Journal of Geological Hazard and Control, 2024, 35(4): 67-74. DOI: 10.16031/j.cnki.issn.1003-8035.202212012
[4]	Qun ZHANG, Zhilin XIAO, Zhigang MA, Shengjie JIN, Junfeng LI, Zhongyuan XU, Pu ZENG, Xiaoqiong ZHANG. Study on the rainfall threshold of red strata landslides in Bazhong, Sichuan using Kriging interpolation method[J]. The Chinese Journal of Geological Hazard and Control, 2024, 35(4): 36-44. DOI: 10.16031/j.cnki.issn.1003-8035.202403008
[5]	Dehu YANG, Jieyong ZHU, Shuai LIU, Bo MA, Xusheng DAI. Comparative analyses of susceptibility assessment for landslide disasters based on information value, weighted information value and logistic regression coupled model in Luoping County, Yunnan Province[J]. The Chinese Journal of Geological Hazard and Control, 2023, 34(5): 43-53. DOI: 10.16031/j.cnki.issn.1003-8035.202208030
[6]	Suhua ZHOU, Yuhang FU, Jingkang XING, Aiquan PENG, Mingyi JIANG. Assessment of landslide hazard risk in Kenya based on different statistical models[J]. The Chinese Journal of Geological Hazard and Control, 2023, 34(4): 114-124. DOI: 10.16031/j.cnki.issn.1003-8035.202206006
[7]	Bin ZENG, Quanru LYU, Lei KOU, Dong AI, Huiyuan XU, Jingjing YUAN. Susceptibility assessment of colluvium landslides along the Changyang section of Qingjiang River using Logistic regression and random forest methods[J]. The Chinese Journal of Geological Hazard and Control, 2023, 34(4): 105-113. DOI: 10.16031/j.cnki.issn.1003-8035.202205044
[8]	Fei GUO, Xiujuan WANG, Xi CHEN, Li WANG, Mingjuan XIE, Yu LI, Jianmin TAN. Comparative analyses on susceptibility of cutting slope landslides in southern Jiangxi using different models[J]. The Chinese Journal of Geological Hazard and Control, 2022, 33(6): 125-133. DOI: 10.16031/j.cnki.issn.1003-8035.202205027
[9]	Xiaohui XIONG, Changlin WANG, Yongjian BAI, Yongbo TIE, Yanchao GAO, Guanghui LI. Comparison of landslide susceptibility assessment based on multiple hybrid models at county level: A case study for Puge County, Sichuan Province[J]. The Chinese Journal of Geological Hazard and Control, 2022, 33(4): 114-124. DOI: 10.16031/j.cnki.issn.1003-8035.202202052
[10]	Shuiyun TU, Zhongyuan ZHANG, Hongliu FU, Shiguang XU, Mingguo DENG, Lichun HE, Jinyu LIU. Geological hazard susceptibility evaluation based on CF and CF-LR model[J]. The Chinese Journal of Geological Hazard and Control, 2022, 33(2): 96-104. DOI: 10.16031/j.cnki.issn.1003-8035.2022.02-12

Cited By

Cited by

Periodical cited type(3)

1.	FENG Qiangqiang, DING Mingtao, CAI Jiajun, HE Yufeng, MING Yicheng, REN Heming, LI Feng. Spatiotemporal landslide susceptibility assessment integrating typhoon tracks: a case study of typhoon Lekima. Journal of Mountain Science. 2025(08)
2.	孔雅茜，陈全明，陈建华. 湖南资兴“格美”台风群发性地质灾害发育特征及风险管控. 地质灾害与环境保护. 2025(02): 50-55 .
3.	庄旭彬. 福建某公路高陡边坡稳定性提升方法与分析. 福建建材. 2024(07): 72-77 .

Other cited types(1)

Get Citation

PDF

XML

Article views (309) PDF downloads (291) Cited by(4)

Probability analysis of landslide based on typhoon track

Abstract

References

Related Articles

Cited by

Periodical cited type(3)

Other cited types(1)

Catalog

Links：

Probability analysis of landslide based on typhoon track

Abstract

References

Related Articles

Cited by

Periodical cited type(3)

Other cited types(1)

Catalog

Links：

Export File

Citation

Format

Content