Citation: | ZHANG Weike,ZHOU Jian,JIANG Yishun,et al. Development characteristics and risk assessment of geological hazards along the Lan-Cheng-Yu refined oil pipeline based on machine learning[J]. The Chinese Journal of Geological Hazard and Control,2025,36(4): 1-12. DOI: 10.16031/j.cnki.issn.1003-8035.202405013 |
This study focuses on the region along the Lanzhou-Chengdu-Chongqing (Lan-Cheng-Yu) refined oil pipeline, analyzing the development characteristics of geological hazards based on field-surveyed disaster points along the pipeline. The analysis considers 10 evaluation factors across four aspects: from topography, geological environment, hydrological conditions, and ecological environment. These factors include elevation, slope, profile curvature, engineering rock group, distance from faults, water systems, annual rainfall, vegetation cover, land use types, and geological peak ground acceleration. By utilizing an information model and BP neural network, the study identifies the susceptibility zoning of geological hazards along the pipeline for different models. Subsequently, the risk assessment is then conducted based on the risk level and development density of geological hazard hidden points along the pipeline. The types of disasters along the pipeline are primarily water-induced, mainly distributed in Longnan City, Gansu Province. Slope gradient, rock type of the strata, distance to faults, and the drainage system are the main factors affecting the development of geological disasters. There are no high-risk sections along the pipeline, with high, moderate, low, and very low-risk sections accounting for 21.8%, 6.9%, 15.7%, and 55.6% of the total pipeline length, respectively. The AUC value of 0.936 for the information model + neural network approach shows that 71.2% of the hazard points fall within high and relatively high susceptibility zones, suggesting that this combined model is more suitable for evaluating geological hazard susceptibility in this area. The research results provide valuable guidance for ensuring the long-term safe operation and enhancing disaster prevention and mitigation efforts of the Lan-Cheng-Yu refined oil pipeline. Additionally, they provide a beneficial reference and example for conducting geological disaster risk assessments for other pipelines.
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