Dynamic analysis and prediction of rear slope affected area of the Jianshanying landslide in Shuicheng County, Guizhou Province

On September 16, 2020, the combination of mining activities and constant rainfall triggered a long runout landslide in Jianshanying area, Guizhou Province, China, causing a landslide of approximately 80×10⁴ m³ of rock and soil to slide down and form a debris flow. The maximum movement distance of the landslide reached 1 km, with a maximum height difference of about 300 m. Many houses and two roads were destroyed, fortunately without causing casualties. In this study, detailed field investigation combined with the UAV aerial photography were conducted to obtain the geological setting and the digital elevation model of the landslide region. Subsequently, the dynamic model DAN3D was utilized to study the dynamic characteristics and deposit distribution of the Jianshanying landslide. Simulated results were found to match the actual situation well, and the Frictional-Voellmy rheology was identified as an accurate tool for simulating the long runout landslide. Based on the numerical parameters determined from the inversion work, the sliding process and possible travel distance of the potential landslide were simulated. The findings from this study will be helpful aid in predicting landslide runout in high-altitude regions, particularly for the residents in the potential danger zone of the Jianshanying landslide.