ISSN 1003-8035 CN 11-2852/P
    林若昂,简文彬,聂闻. 基于台风路径追踪的滑坡概率分析[J]. 中国地质灾害与防治学报,2022,33(4): 18-27. DOI: 10.16031/j.cnki.issn.1003-8035.202011036
    引用本文: 林若昂,简文彬,聂闻. 基于台风路径追踪的滑坡概率分析[J]. 中国地质灾害与防治学报,2022,33(4): 18-27. DOI: 10.16031/j.cnki.issn.1003-8035.202011036
    LIN Ruoang, JIAN Wenbin, NIE Wen. Probability analysis of landslide based on typhoon track[J]. The Chinese Journal of Geological Hazard and Control, 2022, 33(4): 18-27. DOI: 10.16031/j.cnki.issn.1003-8035.202011036
    Citation: LIN Ruoang, JIAN Wenbin, NIE Wen. Probability analysis of landslide based on typhoon track[J]. The Chinese Journal of Geological Hazard and Control, 2022, 33(4): 18-27. DOI: 10.16031/j.cnki.issn.1003-8035.202011036

    基于台风路径追踪的滑坡概率分析

    Probability analysis of landslide based on typhoon track

    • 摘要: 台风暴雨是我国东南丘陵山地滑坡的主要诱发因素,揭示台风路径与滑坡发生的相关关系对东南丘陵山地台风暴雨型土质滑坡监测预警具有重要的理论及实际意义。本文基于2015—2019年直接过境福建省或间接对福建省造成影响的台风数据以及与这些台风事件发生期间的降雨量数据和台风暴雨滑坡数据,运用ArcGIS软件中的克里金插值法将台风路径、降雨量数据及台风暴雨滑坡数据进行耦合。再运用Logistic回归方法,通过SPSS软件得到泉州市基于台风路径追踪的滑坡发生概率模型。并运用克里金插值法和Logistic回归方法,以台风杜鹃期间的滑坡为实例对所得模型进行验证,其对实际雨量站测得降雨数据引发滑坡与否的判对概率为77%,对实际发生滑坡的判对概率为100%,依据实际降雨量计算数据,其误报率为21%,但实际滑坡发生的误报率为0,符合安全性。预报效果较为满意,因此模型可作为在台风经过泉州市时的台风暴雨型滑坡发生概率的预测。

       

      Abstract: Typhoon rainstorm is the main inducing factor of landslides in southeast hills and mountains in our country. Revealing the correlation between typhoon path and landslides has important theoretical and practical significance for monitoring and early warning of typhoon-rainstorm soil landslides in southeast hills and mountains. In this paper, based on the typhoon data directly passing through Fujian Province or indirectly affecting Fujian Province from 2015 to 2019, as well as the rainfall data and typhoon-rainstorm landslide data during these typhoon events, the Kriging interpolation method in ArcGIS software is used to couple the typhoon path, rainfall data and typhoon-rainstorm landslide data. Through the logistic regression method in SPSS software, the landslide probability model based on typhoon track in Quanzhou City is obtained. Using Kriging interpolation method and logistic regression method, we take the landslide occurred during typhoon Dujuan as an example to verify the model. The correct probability of landslide caused by rainfall data measured by actual rainfall station is 77%, and the correct probability of actual landslide is 100% with a satisfactory prediction effect. Based on the actual rainfall calculation data, the false alarm rate is 21%, but the actual landslide false alarm rate is 0, which is in line with the safety. Therefore, the model can be used to predict the occurrence probability of typhoon-rainstorm landslides under the influence of typhoon passing through Quanzhou City.

       

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