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基于压力−状态−响应模型框架的城市地震综合易损性评价

李江龙 樊燕燕

李江龙, 樊燕燕. 2021: 基于压力−状态−响应模型框架的城市地震综合易损性评价. 中国地质灾害与防治学报, 32(2): 117-125. doi: 10.16031/j.cnki.issn.1003-8035.2021.02.16
引用本文: 李江龙, 樊燕燕. 2021: 基于压力−状态−响应模型框架的城市地震综合易损性评价. 中国地质灾害与防治学报, 32(2): 117-125. doi: 10.16031/j.cnki.issn.1003-8035.2021.02.16
Jianglong LI, Yanyan FAN. 2021: Comprehensive evaluation of urban earthquake vulnerability under the framework of PSR. The Chinese Journal of Geological Hazard and Control, 32(2): 117-125. doi: 10.16031/j.cnki.issn.1003-8035.2021.02.16
Citation: Jianglong LI, Yanyan FAN. 2021: Comprehensive evaluation of urban earthquake vulnerability under the framework of PSR. The Chinese Journal of Geological Hazard and Control, 32(2): 117-125. doi: 10.16031/j.cnki.issn.1003-8035.2021.02.16

基于压力−状态−响应模型框架的城市地震综合易损性评价

doi: 10.16031/j.cnki.issn.1003-8035.2021.02.16
基金项目: 长江学者和创新团队发展计划(IRT15R29)
详细信息
    作者简介:

    李江龙(1996-),男,甘肃天水人,硕士研究生,主要从事城市防灾工程管理研究。E-mail:1056356017@qq.com

    通讯作者:

    樊燕燕(1976-),女,河南禹州人,副教授,主要从事土木工程建造与管理研究。E-mail:12062481@qq.com

  • 中图分类号: P65

Comprehensive evaluation of urban earthquake vulnerability under the framework of PSR

  • 摘要: 为了科学评价城市地震灾害状况,降低城市易损性,基于压力-状态-响应模型框架,构建城市地震综合易损性评价指标体系,其中压力类、状态类、响应类指标分别为7、13、8项。应用熵权法确定了各评价指标的权重,提出基于云模型的城市综合易损性评价模型,并运用雷达图分析法实现城市内各个区综合易损性的相对高低。应用上述方法,对兰州市中心城区进行了震害综合易损性评价,结果表明:兰州市综合易损性等级偏向Ⅲ级,易损性中等,其中红古、安宁区的易损性程度较高,城关、七里河易损性程度较低;经济因素对各区域的易损性影响较大,通过对易损区域加强管理建设,提高城市的防震减灾能力。
  • 图  1  兰州中心城区综合易损性云图

    Figure  1.  Comprehensive vulnerability cloud map of center districts in Lanzhou

    图  2  兰州中心城市各区域综合易损性雷达图

    Figure  2.  Radar map of comprehensive vulnerability of various regions in central districts of Lanzhou

    表  1  城市地震综合易损性评价指标体系

    Table  1.   Evaluation index system for comprehensive vulnerability of urban earthquake

    属性一级指标二级指标指标计算说明指标属性
    压力(B1)自然因素C1城市近源地震等效等级C11反映地震灾害危险度指数g+
    人为因素C2城市化率C21城镇人口占人口总数比例/%+
    年平均自然增长率C22年平均自然增长率/%+
    人口密度C23人口密度/(人·km−2)+
    建筑物密度C24建筑物的基底面积占规划建设面积比例/%+
    老旧建筑物比例C25老旧建筑物数量占建筑物数量比例/%+
    容积率C26地上总建筑面积占可建设用地面积比例/%+
    状态(B2)生命线系统C3交通系统C31公路网综合能力/(104 m2)
    通讯系统C32电信业务收入/万元
    供电系统C33供电量/万千瓦时
    供水系统C34供水总量、用水总量/(104 m3)
    供气系统C35供气总量/m3
    社会状态C414~65岁人口比例C4114~65岁人口比例/%
    失业率C42失业人数占人口总数比例/%+
    教育C43人均教育费用支出/元
    医疗C44人均医疗卫生费用支出/元+
    经济状态C5人均GDP C51GDP/%
    人均GDP增长率C52人均GDP增长率/%
    可支配收入C53人均可支配收入/元
    经济多样性C54第三产业构成比例/%
    响应(B3)工程抗震C6建筑物抗震能力C612002年以后的建筑物占总建筑物比例/%
    构筑物抗震能力C622013年以后的构筑物占总建筑物比例/%
    回复能力C7医疗救助能力C71病床数和医生数/10万人
    社会保障C72人均抚恤和社会福利救济费/元
    地方财政收入C73年末财政收入/万元
    应急避难所覆盖度C74学校数和广场数/个
    避震减灾知识普及率C75
    政府应急反应能力C76
      注:指标属性中,“+”代表越大越优(正向)指标,“−”代表越小越优(逆向)指标。
    下载: 导出CSV

    表  2  评价等级数字特征表

    Table  2.   Digital characteristic of evaluation level

    评价等级取值区间综合易损性数字特征
    [0.0,0.2)(0.1,0.085,0.01)
    [0.2,0.4)较低(0.3,0.085,0.01)
    [0.4,0.6)中等(0.5,0.085,0.01)
    [0.6,0.8)较高(0.7,0.085,0.01)
    [0.8,1.0](0.9,0.085,0.01)
    下载: 导出CSV

    表  3  兰州市5个中心城区的基础数据统计

    Table  3.   Basic data statistics of five central urban districtsin Lanzhou City

    指标C11C21C22C23C24C25C26C31C32C33
    城关区0.20099.1200.0306332.00013.1206.2304.800624.660239568.750102878.160
    七里河区0.20083.6100.3601458.00015.56015.3003.8001153.230117122.50045088.580
    西固区0.20087.2800.1101023.00017.89017.7503.6701105.180101151.25029424.000
    安宁区0.200100.0000.0003443.00020.86019.0103.190288.31042590.00023285.180
    红古区0.15078.1700.400263.00027.12026.1003.1001633.74031942.50011007.540
    指标C34C35C41C42C43C44C51C52C53C54
    城关区8950.3592041.20082.4001.9101188.0001009.00072396.0006.90036326.00086.300
    七里河区3922.685894.60082.1001.9601324.0001124.00079074.0006.00028534.00062.600
    西固区2559.875583.80081.3002.0101751.0001487.000110782.0004.30033150.00038.200
    安宁区2025.805462.00083.6001.830935.000794.00059814.0006.60032574.00061.500
    红古区957.650218.40085.6003.1501488.0001264.00092080.0008.60025720.00031.000
    指标C61C62C71C72C73C74C75C76
    城关区82.05028.9501270.0557709.000400518.000438.00085.36076.470
    七里河区55.20017.0301247.3056141.000210098.000231.00071.05066.320
    西固区48.97011.750566.3956338.000124664.000144.00068.36063.100
    安宁区36.44011.250362.8955370.000117027.00096.00066.07060.560
    红古区32.3207.260854.6754657.00052393.00054.00056.32041.180
    下载: 导出CSV

    表  4  兰州市5个中心城区统计数据的无量纲化处理

    Table  4.   Dimensionless of statistical data of five central urban districts of Lanzhou

    指标C11C21C22C23C24C25C26C31C32C33
    城关区1.0000.9910.0751.0000.4840.2391.0000.6180.0000.000
    七里河区1.0000.8360.9000.2300.5740.5860.7920.2940.5110.562
    西固区1.0000.8730.2750.1620.6600.6800.7650.3240.5780.714
    安宁区1.0001.0000.0000.5440.7690.7280.6650.8240.8220.774
    红古区0.7500.7821.0000.0421.0001.0000.6460.0000.8670.893
    指标C34C35C41C42C43C44C51C52C53C54
    城关区0.0000.0000.0370.6060.3220.6790.3470.1980.0000.000
    七里河区0.5620.5620.0410.6220.2440.7560.2860.3020.2150.275
    西固区0.7140.7140.0500.6380.0001.0000.0000.5000.0870.557
    安宁区0.7740.7740.0230.5810.4660.5340.4600.2330.1030.287
    红古区0.8930.8930.0001.0000.1500.8500.1690.0000.2920.641
    指标C61C62C71C72C73C74C75C76
    城关区0.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000
    七里河区0.3270.4120.0180.2030.4750.4730.1680.133
    西固区0.4030.5940.5540.1780.6890.6710.1990.175
    安宁区0.5560.6110.7140.3030.7080.7810.2260.208
    红古区0.6060.7490.3270.3960.8690.8770.3400.461
    下载: 导出CSV

    表  5  兰州中心城区地震综合易损性评价云数字特征

    Table  5.   Cloud characteristic for comprehensive evaluation of earthquake vulnerability in center districts of Lanzhou

    总指标数字特征一级指标权重数字特征二级指标权重数字特征
    城市综合易损性评价(0.554,0.210,0.088)C10.030(0.950,0.100,0.050)C110.030(0.950,0.100,0.050)
    C20.155(0.626,0.278,0.103)C210.021(0.896,0.099,0.025)
    C220.039(0.450,0.501,0.178)
    C230.018(0.395,0.377,0.079)
    C240.038(0.697,0.188,0.067)
    C250.025(0.647,0.235,0.143)
    C260.014(0.773,0.123,0.070)
    C30.228(0.552,0.307,0.150)C310.039(0.412,0.310,0.070)
    C320.045(0.556,0.301,0.171)
    C330.050(0.588,0.308,0.165)
    C340.046(0.588,0.308,0.165)
    C350.048(0.588,0.308,0.165)
    C40.124(0.491,0.086,0.042)C410.018(0.030,0.019,0.006)
    C420.050(0.690,0.156,0.080)
    C430.038(0.236,0.162,0.069)
    C440.018(0.764,0.162,0.069)
    C50.148(0.508,0.113,0.032)C510.051(0.252,0.168,0.051)
    C520.018(0.247,0.155,0.093)
    C530.031(0.139,0.114,0.009)
    C540.048(0.352,0.248,0.060)
    C60.074(0.423,0.240,0.108)C610.039(0.378,0.215,0.105)
    C620.035(0.473,0.268,0.112)
    C70.241(0.562,0.201,0.077)C710.044(0.323,0.314,0.046)
    C720.021(0.216,0.134,0.064)
    C730.055(0.548,0.311,0.129)
    C740.028(0.560,0.325,0.123)
    C750.049(0.187,0.103,0.067)
    C760.044(0.195,0.140,0.094)
    下载: 导出CSV

    表  6  兰州中心城市各区域的特征量计算结果

    Table  6.   The calculation results of the characteristic quantity of various regions in central districts of Lanzhou

    城市区平均面积/km2平均周长/km${\overline V _x}$${Y_x}$排序
    城关区0.37017.44860.08380.17615
    七里河区0.61798.52950.10670.25644
    西固区0.786210.68160.08650.26083
    安宁区0.93208.73030.15360.37812
    红古区1.223411.43040.11760.37911
    下载: 导出CSV
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  • 收稿日期:  2020-04-13
  • 修回日期:  2020-05-09
  • 刊出日期:  2021-04-27

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