云南省哀牢山区地质灾害因子敏感性和易发性评价

杨文礼; 白光顺; 孙滨; 张卫锋; 杨雪梅

doi:10.16031/j.cnki.issn.1003-8035.202303055

云南省哀牢山区地质灾害因子敏感性和易发性评价

doi: 10.16031/j.cnki.issn.1003-8035.202303055

杨文礼^{1, 2,},
白光顺^{1, 3, ,},
孙滨^{1, 3},
张卫锋^{1, 2},
杨雪梅⁴

1.
自然资源部高原山地地质灾害预报预警与生态保护修复重点实验室/云南省高原山地地质灾害预报预警与生态保护修复重点实验室，云南昆明　650216
2.
云南省地质环境监测院，云南昆明　650216
3.
昆明理工大学国土资源工程学院，云南昆明　650093
4.
云南高正地信科技有限公司，云南昆明　650041

基金项目: 云南省地质灾害综合防治体系建设专项计划（2013-2020）。

详细信息

作者简介:
杨文礼（1969-），男，云南华坪，高级工程师，开展地质灾害调查和防治研究工作。E-mail：516441283@qq.com

通讯作者:
白光顺(1986-),男,山东巨野,博士研究生,主要从事工程地质理论和应用研究。E-mail: baiguangshun@foxmail.com

中图分类号: P208;P694
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- 被引次数: 0
出版历程
- 收稿日期: 2022-12-03
- 录用日期: 2023-09-19
- 修回日期: 2022-12-04
- 网络出版日期: 2023-10-10

Sensitivity and Susceptibility Assessment of Geological Hazard Factors in the Ailao Mountain Region of Yunnan province, China ——A case study of Xinping County

Wenli YANG^{1, 2
,},
Guangshun BAI^{1, 3
, ,},
Bin SUN^{1, 3},
Weifeng ZHANG^{1, 2},
Xuemei YANG⁴

1.
Key Laboratory of Geohazard Forecast and Geoecological Restoration in Plateau Mountainous Area, MNR / Key Laboratory of Geohazard Forecast and Geoecological Restoration in Plateau Mountainous Area of Yunnan Province, Kunming, Yunnan　650216, China
2.
Yunnan Geological Environment Monitoring Institute, Kunming, Yunnan　650216, China
3.
Faculty of Land Resource Engineering, Kunming University of Science and Technology, Kunming, Yunnan　650093, China
4.
Yunnan Gaozheng Dixin Technology Co., Ltd. , Kunming, Yunnan　650041, China

摘要

摘要: 针对地质灾害敏感因子选取和易发性评价问题，为寻求适宜云南省哀牢山区危险性分区方法，论文选择新平县为典型研究区，选择了工程地质岩组、距断裂距离、海拔、坡度、坡向、距水系距离、道路缓冲区和地类等因子，应用证据权计算法，进行了地质灾害因子敏感分析和易发性评价。评价结果显示地质灾害高易发区面积1532.94 km²、灾点占比74.06%；中易发区面积2119.07 km²、灾点占比24.68%；评价结果与历史地质灾害空间分布特征相符，证明了此次所选取的评价因子和评价模型的合理性，支持云南省哀牢山区灾害防治。
- 地质灾害 /
- 因子敏感性 /
- 易发性评价 /
- 证据权法 /
- 哀牢山区 /
- 新平县
Abstract: In response to the selection of sensitive factors for geological disasters and susceptibility assessment, nd seeking an appropriate method for evaluating the susceptibility of geological disasters in the Ailao Mountain area of Yunnan Province, this paper selects Xinping County as a typical research area, with eight key factors including engineering geological rock formations, distance from fault structures, elevation, slope, slope direction, river buffer zone, roads buffer zone, and land type. The evidence weight method based on Bayesian theory is applied to conduct a sensitivity analysis and susceptibility evaluation of geological hazard factors. The evaluation results show that the areas with high and medium susceptibility to geological disasters covering 1532.94 km² and 2119.07 km², respectively, with 74.06% and 24.68% of geological disaster points falling within these regions. These findings are highly consistent with the spatial distribution of historical geological disasters, proving the rationality of the chosen evaluation factors and models. This study provides valuable insights for the evaluation of geological disaster susceptibility in the Ailao Mountain area of Yunnan Province.
- geological hazards /
- sensitivity analysis /
- susceptibility evaluation /
- ailao mountin area /
- Evidence weight method /
- Xinping county

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图 1 因素基础数据图

Figure 1. Fundamental factor data chart

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图 2 各因素分级分区和地灾点数量相关性统计图

Figure 2. Correlation statistical charts between factor grading zones and the number of geological hazard points

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图 3 因素证据权重计算结果图

Figure 3. Calculation results charts of factor evidence weights

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图 4 模型预测性能ROC曲线图

Figure 4. ROC curve for model predictive performance

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图 5 地质灾害易发性分类图

Figure 5. Geological hazard susceptibility classification map

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表 1 数据简介

Table 1. Data overview introduction

数据	灾点及致灾要素	类型	来源
地灾	地灾点	矢量点	地质灾害历年调查数据
地质	工程地质岩组	矢量面	区域地质调查报告^[14]
地质	距断裂距离	矢量线和缓冲区	区域地质调查报告^[14]
地形地貌	高程	栅格	12.5 m DEM，https://asf.alaska.edu/
	坡度	栅格	根据DEM，应用ArcGIS提取
	坡向	栅格	根据DEM，应用ArcGIS提取
道路	距道路距离	矢量线缓冲区	根据矢量线用ArcGIS制作
水系	距水系距离	矢量线缓冲区	根据矢量线用ArcGIS制作
土地类型	地类	栅格	ESA WorldCover 10 m 2020， https://esa-worldcover.org/en

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表 2 因素证据权重计算结果表

Table 2. Results of factor evidence weight calculation

因素	因素分级	因素分级面积百分比（%）	灾点数百分比（%）	β	W⁺	W⁻	Wf	因素	因素分级	因素分级面积百分比（%）	灾点数百分比（%）	β	W⁺	W⁻	Wf
工程岩组	块状次硬岩组（A）	9.92	23.94	2.41	0.8824	−0.1693	0.7131	坡度	<8°	10.63	10.47	0.98	−0.0144	0.0017	−0.0127
	块状次软岩组（B）	13.32	3.49	0.26	−1.3393	0.1075	−1.2319		8-15°	25.22	30.92	1.23	0.2041	−0.0794	0.1247
	层状软硬岩组（C）	74.45	69.83	0.94	−0.0642	0.1665	0.1023		15-25°	40.78	41.15	1.01	0.0089	−0.0062	0.0027
	层状软弱岩组（D）	1.42	1	0.70	−0.3520	0.0043	−0.3477		25-35°	19.2	15.46	0.81	−0.2170	0.0453	−0.1717
	松散岩组（E）	0.9	1.75	1.94	0.6658	−0.0086	0.6572		35-45°	3.83	2	0.52	−0.6514	0.0189	−0.6325
距断裂距离	0-50 m	1.01	2.99	2.96	1.0855	−0.0202	1.0652		45-69°	0.34	0	0.00	0.0000	0.0034	0.0034
	50-100 m	1.01	1.25	1.24	0.2158	−0.0024	0.2133	距河流距离	<50 m	6	6.8	1.13	0.1252	−0.0086	0.1166
	100-300 m	4.06	8.73	2.15	0.7659	−0.0499	0.7160		50-100 m	5.91	7.05	1.19	0.1763	−0.0122	0.1642
	300-500 m	4.05	7.48	1.85	0.6157	−0.0365	0.5792		100-300 m	22.56	29.47	1.31	0.2673	−0.0935	0.1738
	500-1000 m	9.83	10.47	1.07	0.0640	−0.0072	0.0567		300-500 m	19.88	20.4	1.03	0.0260	−0.0066	0.0194
	>1000 m	80.05	69.08	0.86	−0.1475	0.4388	0.2912		500-1000 m	31.79	27.96	0.88	−0.1284	0.0546	−0.0737
高程	<800 m	10.45	9.73	0.93	−0.0717	0.0080	−0.0637		>1000 m	13.86	8.31	0.60	−0.5113	0.0624	−0.4489
	88-1100 m	14.44	14.46	1.00	0.0020	−0.0003	0.0016	距道路距离	<50 m	4.63	7.23	1.56	0.4464	−0.0277	0.4187
	1100-1300 m	10.94	7.98	0.73	−0.3157	0.0327	−0.2830		50-100 m	4.55	7.48	1.64	0.4968	−0.0312	0.4656
	1300-1500 m	13.62	17.71	1.30	0.2630	−0.0486	0.2144		100-300 m	17.11	26.43	1.54	0.4354	−0.1194	0.3160
	1500-1700 m	14.53	18.7	1.29	0.2528	−0.0501	0.2027		300-500 m	15.02	19.2	1.28	0.2459	−0.0505	0.1954
	1700-1900 m	11.14	18.95	1.70	0.5317	−0.0921	0.4396		500-1000 m	28.64	25.19	0.88	−0.1286	0.0473	−0.0813
	1900-2100 m	8.94	10.22	1.14	0.1340	−0.0142	0.1198		>1000 m	30.04	14.46	0.48	−0.7315	0.2013	−0.5302
	2100-2500 m	11.43	2	0.17	−1.7462	0.1013	−1.6449	地类	林地（A）	70.37	47.38	0.67	−0.3959	0.5752	0.1793
	2500-3200 m	4.52	0.25	0.06	−2.8976	0.0438	−2.8539		灌木（B）	0.4	0.5	1.25	0.2097	−0.0009	0.2087
坡向	北东（NE）	14.73	17.96	1.22	0.1979	−0.0385	0.1594		草地（C）	13.55	14.46	1.07	0.0655	−0.0107	0.0548
	东（E）	13.72	20.95	1.53	0.4236	−0.0876	0.3360		耕地（D）	11.34	26.18	2.31	0.8378	−0.1834	0.6544
	南东（SE）	12.99	14.21	1.09	0.0902	−0.0142	0.0760		建筑（E）	0.64	2.49	3.89	1.3701	−0.0189	1.3512
	南（S）	12.73	12.22	0.96	−0.0409	0.0058	−0.0351		裸地（F）	3.47	8.98	2.59	0.9509	−0.0588	0.8921
	南西（SW）	10.93	7.23	0.66	−0.4129	0.0407	−0.3722		开阔水域（G）	0.22	0	0.00	0.0000	0.0022	0.0022
	西（W）	10.43	6.48	0.62	−0.4757	0.0431	−0.4325
	北西（NW）	11.34	8.23	0.73	−0.3206	0.0345	−0.2861
	北（N）	13.14	12.72	0.97	−0.0323	0.0048	−0.0275

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表 3 地质灾害易发性分区表

Table 3. Geological hazard susceptibility zoning table

易发性分区	面积（km²）	占总面积（%）	灾点数	灾点比（%）
高	1532.94	36.11	297	74.06
中	2119.07	49.92	99	24.69
低	592.72	13.97	5	1.25

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