ISSN 1003-8035 CN 11-2852/P
    陈玉波,徐世光,陈梦瑞. 以确定性系数法为基础的不同滑坡易发性评价模型对比分析−以云南保山盆地周边地区为例[J]. 中国地质灾害与防治学报,2023,34(0): 1-12. DOI: 10.16031/j.cnki.issn.1003-8035.202306021
    引用本文: 陈玉波,徐世光,陈梦瑞. 以确定性系数法为基础的不同滑坡易发性评价模型对比分析−以云南保山盆地周边地区为例[J]. 中国地质灾害与防治学报,2023,34(0): 1-12. DOI: 10.16031/j.cnki.issn.1003-8035.202306021
    CHEN Yubo,XU Shiguang,CHEN Mengrui. Comparative analysis of landslide susceptibility evaluation models based on coefficient of determination method:A case study in the surrounding area of Baoshan basin, Yunnan province[J]. The Chinese Journal of Geological Hazard and Control,2023,34(0): 1-12. DOI: 10.16031/j.cnki.issn.1003-8035.202306021
    Citation: CHEN Yubo,XU Shiguang,CHEN Mengrui. Comparative analysis of landslide susceptibility evaluation models based on coefficient of determination method:A case study in the surrounding area of Baoshan basin, Yunnan province[J]. The Chinese Journal of Geological Hazard and Control,2023,34(0): 1-12. DOI: 10.16031/j.cnki.issn.1003-8035.202306021

    以确定性系数法为基础的不同滑坡易发性评价模型对比分析以云南保山盆地周边地区为例

    Comparative analysis of landslide susceptibility evaluation models based on coefficient of determination method:A case study in the surrounding area of Baoshan basin, Yunnan province

    • 摘要: 随着保山盆地城市化进程的不断推进,地质条件恶化,滑坡自然灾害频发,为提供防治建议,对研究区进行滑坡易发性评价。据区域地质背景、人类活动及灾害发育特征,选取海拔、坡度、坡向、归一化植被覆盖度(NDVI)、工程地质岩组、距道路距离、距断层距离、距水系距离、灾害点密度,共9个评价因子。建立确定性系数法模型(CF)、确定性系数法与层次分析法耦合模型(CF-AHP)、确定性系数法与熵指数法耦合模型(CF-IOE)及确定性系数法与距离函数法-组合权重耦合模型(CF-AHP-IOE)。结果显示:CF、CF-AHP、CF-IOE、CF-AHP-IOE模型滑坡易性发分级的灾害密度及频率比值显著增加,均有效对研究区进行滑坡易发性评价;3种模型AUC值分别为0.890、0.911、0.921、0.916,耦合模型具有更高评价精度;其中CF-AHP-IOE模型在极高易发区频率比值与灾害数量占比90%以上,说明了主、客赋权更加合理。研究可为保山盆地城市化进程提供预先防治建议。

       

      Abstract: As urbanization continues to progress in the BaoShan Basin, geological conditions have deteriorated and leading to frequent landslide natural hazards. To provide prevention and control recommendations, landslide susceptibility assessment was carried out in the study area. Nine evaluation factors, including elevation, slope, slope direction, normalized vegetation cover (NDVI), engineering geological rock group, distance from roads, distance from faults, distance from water systems, and density of disaster sites, were selected based on the regional geological background, human activities and disaster development characteristics. Four models were established: deterministic coefficient method (CF), the coupled model of deterministic coefficient method and hierarchical analysis method (CF-AHP), the coupled model of deterministic coefficient method and index of entropy method (CF-IOE), and the coupled model of deterministic coefficient method and distance function-combined weights method (CF-AHP-IOE). The results show that the hazard density and frequency ratios of CF, CF-AHP, CF-IOE, and CF-AHP-IOE models landslide susceptibility grading have significantly increased, effectively assessing the landslide susceptibility in the study area. The AUC values of the three models were 0.890, 0.911, 0.921, and 0.916, respectively, indicating higher evaluation accuracy for the coupled models. Among them, the CF-AHP-IOE model has a ratio of disaster frequency and disaster quantity exceeding 90% in the extremely high susceptibility zone, demonstrating a more reasonable weighting approach. The study can provide preemptive recommendations for the urbanization process in the BaoShan Basin.

       

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