ISSN 1003-8035 CN 11-2852/P

    基于生成对抗网络优化随机森林模型的西藏定结县地质灾害易发性评价

    Susceptibility assessment of geological hazards in Dingjie County, tibet, using a generative adversarial network optimized random forest model

    • 摘要: 西藏定结县地处高海拔复杂地质环境区,构造活动活跃,地质灾害频发,开展区域地质灾害易发性评价对防灾减灾具有重要意义。本文以定结县为研究区,选取海拔、坡度、岩性、地形起伏度、距断裂带距离、距河流距离、距道路距离、年均NDVI、年均降雨量、居民点核密度共10个影响因子,构建地质灾害易发性评价指标体系。首先通过地理探测器分析各因子对灾害易发性的解释力,针对灾害样本数据不足问题,采用生成对抗网络(GAN)增强训练数据,进而构建GAN-RF模型开展易发性评价,并将结果划分为低易发、较低易发、中易发、较高易发、高易发5个等级,最后结合模型验证与SHAP可视化解释验证模型效能。地理探测器分析表明,海拔高度、年均降雨量、居民点核密度等因子对地质灾害易发性的影响显著。模型验证显示,传统随机森林模型(RF)的AUC值为0.897,而GAN-RF模型AUC值提升至0.953,高易发区识别精度明显提高,其中高易发区仅占县域面积的1.40%,却集中了85.81%的地质灾害验证点。GAN-RF模型能有效提升高海拔地区地质灾害易发性评价精度,优化高易发区识别效果,经SHAP验证其在该类区域评价中的有效性,可为灾害防治决策提供可靠依据。

       

      Abstract: Dingjie County in Tibet is located in a high-altitude region characterized by complex geological conditions, active tectonics, and frequent geological hazards. Conducting a regional susceptibility assessment of geological hazards is therefore critical for effective disaster prevention and mitigation. Focusing on Dingjie County, this study establishes a susceptibility evaluation framework based on ten influencing factors: elevation, slope gradient, lithology, terrain relief, distance to fault zones, distance to rivers, distance to roads, mean annual NDVI, mean annual precipitation, and settlement kernel density. These factors form the basis for constructing a geological hazard susceptibility evaluation index system. First, the geographic detector method was applied to quantify the explanatory power of each factor with respect to hazard susceptibility. To address the limit availability of hazard inventory data, a generative adversarial network (GAN) was employed to augment training samples. Subsequently, a GAN-enhanced Random Forest (GAN-RF) model was developed to produce a five-class susceptibility map: low susceptibility, relatively low susceptibility, moderate susceptibility, relatively high susceptibility, and high susceptibility. Finally, model validation and SHAP visualization were conducted to assess model performance. Geodetector results indicate that elevation, mean annual precipitation, and settlement kernel density are the dominant controlling factors. Model validation shows that while the traditional Random Forest (RF) model achieved an AUC of 0.897, the GAN-RF model significantly improved this to 0.953, markedly enhancing the accuracy of identifying high-susceptibility zones. Notably, the high-risk zones, covering only 1.40% of the county area, concentrated 85.81% of the verified geological hazard points. The GAN-RF model effectively improves susceptibility mapping accuracy in high-altitude regions, particularly optimizing the identification of high-risk zones. SHAP validation confirms its effectiveness in evaluating such areas, providing reliable basis for disaster prevention and mitigation decisions.

       

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