ISSN 1003-8035 CN 11-2852/P

    黄河上游戈龙布滑坡地震稳定性研究

    Seismic stability analysis of the Gelongbu landslide in the upper reaches of the Yellow River

    • 摘要: 戈龙布滑坡位于黄河流域上游积石峡峡谷中段的狐跳峡两岸,该区属青藏高原与黄土高原的地貌分界带,地质地貌条件复杂。近年来中强震频发,尤其是2023年积石山Ms6.2地震后,该区地震危险性和地震滑坡的危险性备受关注。本研究基于无人机航测获取的高精度DEM与正射影像,详细分析了戈龙布滑坡的几何特征,进一步利用FLAC3D数值模拟识别了地震作用下的潜在危险区,并结合滑坡动力学理论及地形地貌特征,对滑坡范围进行了预测评估。同时,采用危险性指数法对地震滑坡崩塌的危险性进行了量化分析,计算其在不同超越概率地震动作用下的地震稳定性并估算了滑坡潜在危险部位及滑动距离。结果表明戈龙布滑坡堆积区的东、西侧壁坡度较陡,在未来遭遇Ⅷ度及以上地震动作用时,极易发生滑坡或崩塌;边坡危险性指数为12~18,为中等至高危险等级。当滑坡发生时,东西侧壁的预计滑动范围分别为238 m和264 m,物质滑入黄河将造成严重影响。本研究对戈龙布滑坡的识别、监测、预警以及防治具有重要的意义。

       

      Abstract: The Gelongbu landslide is located on both banks of the Hutiao Gorge in the middle section of the Jishixia Canyon, in the upper reaches of the Yellow River. This region lies at the geomorphological transition zone between the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau and the Loess Plateau, where geological and geomorphological conditions are highly complex. In recent years, moderate to strong earthquakes have occurred frequently. In particular, following the 2023 Jishishan Ms 6.2 earthquake, seismic hazard and earthquake-induced landslide risks in this area have attracted increasing attention. In this study, high-precision Digital Elevation Models (DEMs) and orthophotos obtained through UAV aerial surveying were used to conduct a detailed analysis of the geometric characteristics of the Gelongbu landslide. FLAC3D numerical simulations were then performed to identify potential hazard zones under seismic loading. Combined with landslide dynamics theory and regional topographic–geomorphological features, the potential extent of landslide movement was further predicted and assessed. In addition, a hazard index method was adopted to quantitatively evaluate the risk of earthquake-induced landslides and collapses by calculating seismic stability under ground motions with different exceedance probabilities, and by estimating potential hazardous sectors and sliding distances. The results indicate that the eastern and western flanks of the Gelongbu landslide’s accumulation zone are relatively steep and are highly susceptible to failure when subjected to seismic intensities of VIII or higher. The calculated slope hazard index ranges from 12 to 18, corresponding to medium to high hazard levels. In the event of failure, the predicted sliding distances of the eastern and western flanks are approximately 238 m and 264 m, respectively. Material entering the Yellow River would potentially cause severe impacts on river-channel stability and downstream safety. This research provides important scientific guidance for the identification, monitoring, early warning, and mitigation of hazards associated with the Gelongbu landslide.

       

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