ISSN 1003-8035 CN 11-2852/P

    北京山区突发地质灾害空间易发性评价

    Spatial susceptibility assessment of geological hazards in the mountainous areas of Beijing

    • 摘要: 北京市山区地质环境复杂,突发性地质灾害频发,严重威胁生态安全与居民生命财产。本文旨在系统分析地质灾害与地质、地形、环境要素之间的空间耦合关系,构建地质灾害易发性评价模型,为区域防灾减灾与风险管理提供科学依据。基于北京市山区9147处地质灾害隐患点分布特征,从地质要素、地理要素及环境要素三个维度出发,选取高程、坡度、坡向、曲率、距断裂距离、距褶皱轴距离、地层、2024年降雨量及NDVI共9个影响因子,采用改进频率比法构建地质灾害易发性评价模型,通过就高原则对崩塌、滑坡、泥石流易发性进行综合评价。高程(150~450 m)、坡度(5°~28°)、坡向(90°~270°)、距断裂距离(0~2000 m)、距褶皱轴距离(0~13000 m)、2024年降雨量(750~840 mm)、NDVI(0.38~0.85)等因子区间对地质灾害具有显著促进作用;综合易发性评价结果显示,北京市山区地质灾害高易发区面积达2634.636 km2,占研究区总面积的26.08%,主要分布于密云区中部密云水库周边、怀柔区南部及中东部、昌平区中部山前地区以及门头沟、房山区东部;2024年实际发生的37起地质灾害中,67.57%位于高易发区和较易发区,验证了模型的预测精度。揭示了"地质基础—地形表现—环境触发"的多元耦合与复杂响应关系;改进频率比法有效克服了传统频率比法在因子分级过程中主观性强、频率比值不连续等问题,显著提升了模型的区分能力,为北京市山区地质灾害风险管理提供了科学依据;高易发区集中分布于密云水库周边、怀柔南部等重要生态区域,这些区域的防灾减灾工作应作为重点,为制定针对性地质灾害防治措施提供了理论指导。

       

      Abstract: The mountainous areas of Beijing exhibit a complex geological environment and are prone to frequent sudden geological hazards, posing significant threats to ecological security and to the safety of lives and property. This study aims to systematically analyze the spatial coupling relationships among geological hazards and their controlling factors—spanning geology, topography, and environmental conditions—and to develop a robust susceptibility assessment model to support regional disaster prevention, mitigation, and risk management. Based on the spatial distribution of 9,147 potential geological hazard sites in the mountainous regions of Beijing, nine influencing factors were selected from three dimensions—geological, geographic, and environmental: elevation, slope, aspect, curvature, distance to faults, distance to fold axes, stratigraphy, rainfall in 2024, and NDVI. An improved frequency ratio method was employed to develop the geological hazard susceptibility assessment model. The susceptibilities of collapse, landslide, and debris flow were comprehensively evaluated using the “maximum-value principle” (i.e., assigning the highest susceptibility class at each location). Factor intervals exhibiting strong positive correlations with hazard occurrence include elevation (150−450 m), slope (5°−28°), aspect (90°−270°), distance to faults (0−2,000 m), distance to fold axes (0−13,000 m), rainfall in 2024 (750−840 mm), and NDVI (0.38−0.85). The comprehensive susceptibility assessment results indicate that high-susceptibility zones covers 2,634.636 km2, accounting for 26.08% of the total study area. These zones are mainly distributed around the Miyun Reservoir in central Miyun District, the southern and central-eastern parts of Huairou District, the piedmont areas of central Changping District, and the eastern parts of Mentougou and Fangshan Districts. Among the 37 geological hazard events recorded in 2024, 67.57% occurred within high- and relatively high-susceptibility zones, validating the predictive accuracy of the model. This study reveals the multi-factor coupling and complex response mechanism of "geological foundation−topographic manifestation−environmental triggering." The improved frequency ratio method effectively reduces the subjectivity in factor classification and the discontinuity inherent in the traditional method, significantly enhancing model discrimination capability. The results provide a scientific basis for geological disaster risk management in the mountainous areas of Beijing. High-susceptibility zones are concentrated around key ecological areas such as the Miyun Reservoir and southern Huairou, where disaster prevention and mitigation efforts should be prioritized, providing theoretical guidance for targeted geological disaster prevention measures.

       

    /

    返回文章
    返回