ISSN 1003-8035 CN 11-2852/P

    基于综合指标体系的堰塞湖溃决风险快速评估方法研究

    Research on rapid assessment method of barrier lake outburst risk based on comprehensive index system

    • 摘要: 堰塞湖溃决洪水具有突发性强、破坏性大、应急时间短等特点,传统的数值模拟方法在数据要求高、计算耗时长的情况下难以满足应急决策需求。本文旨在构建一种兼具一定精度与时效性的堰塞湖溃决风险快速评估模型,为灾害来临时应急处置人员提供决策依据。在传统“四模块”体系(坝体稳定性、洪水严重性、风险人口、生命损失)的基础上,引入“预警响应与社会易损性”模块,形成涵盖自然过程与社会响应的“五模块”综合快速评估框架。模型以少量可获取的几何、水文及社会行为参数为输入,通过标准化赋分函数实现风险值的量化;采用CRITIC(Criteria Importance Through Intercriteria Correlation)方法计算客观权重,消除人为主观偏差。基于唐家山、白格、东河口、谢家店子、肖家桥等十余个典型堰塞湖的实测数据进行模型标定与验证。模型输出的坝体稳定性、洪峰流量、风险人口与生命损失预测值与实际调查结果吻合度较高。预测白格堰塞湖二次滑坡后洪峰流量约2.5×104 m3/s、风险人口约2.5×103人、生命损失2人,综合评分17.5,判为高风险等级,与官方反演流量及实际零伤亡情况高度一致。本文构建的“五模块”堰塞湖溃决风险快速评估模型可在信息有限、时间紧迫的应急场景下快速输出可量化的风险等级,为堰塞湖灾害的实时判读、应急指挥与风险分区提供了可行的量化工具。

       

      Abstract: Dammed lake outburst floods are characterized by strong suddenness, high destructiveness and short emergency response time. Traditional numerical simulation methods are difficult to meet emergency decision-making demands due to high data requirements and long computation time. This paper aims to construct a rapid dammed lake outburst risk assessment model with acceptable accuracy and timeliness, so as to provide decision support for emergency responders in disaster scenarios. On the basis of the traditional four-module system (dam stability, flood severity, exposed population, life loss), a new module of early warning response and social vulnerability is introduced to form a five-module comprehensive rapid assessment framework covering natural processes and social responses. The model takes a small number of available geometric, hydrological and social behavior parameters as input, and quantifies risk values through standardized scoring functions. The CRITIC (Criteria Importance Through Intercriteria Correlation) method is adopted to calculate objective weights and eliminate human subjective bias. The model is calibrated and verified using measured data from more than ten typical barrier lakes including Tangjiashan, Baige, Donghekou, Xiejiadianzi and Xiaojiaqiao. The model outputs of dam stability, flood peak discharge, exposed population and life loss are in good agreement with field survey results. For the Baige barrier lake after the second landslide, the model predicts a flood peak discharge of about 2.5×104 m3/s, an exposed population of about 2.5×103 persons, a life loss of 2 persons, and a comprehensive score of 17.5 (high risk level), which is highly consistent with the official inverted discharge and actual zero casualties. The five-module rapid assessment model for barrier lake outburst risk established in this paper can quickly output quantifiable risk levels in emergency scenarios with limited information and tight time, providing a feasible quantitative tool for real-time interpretation, emergency command and risk zoning of barrier lake disasters.

       

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