ISSN 1003-8035 CN 11-2852/P

    湖北省突发地质灾害诱因时空分布特征与风险防控对策

    Temporal and spatial distribution characteristics and risk prevention and control countermeasures of inducing factors of sudden geological disasters in Hubei Province

    • 摘要: 湖北省通过统筹推进全省已有地质灾害隐患点工程治理、排危除险或搬迁避让等措施全面提高防灾减灾能力和建设完善全省“四位一体”网格化管理、专业监测预警和“省-市-县”三级气象风险预警预实现地质灾害早期预警,在切实有效保障人民群众生命财产安全的同时,实现全省地质灾害成功预报率逐年增长至近50%,也使突发性地质灾害的规律特征出现一定变化。研究通过对2016—2025年湖北省突发性地质灾害的发生时间、诱发因素及分布规律进行研究,提出全省突发性地质灾害表现出的“78 889”的规律,即:70%以上的突发性地质灾害由降水诱发(受降水影响的占比达90%以上),80%以上的突发性地质灾害发生在已知隐患点范围外,80%以上的突发性地质灾害分布在广大的农村乡村,80%以上的突发性地质灾害分布在中高易发区,90%以上的突发性地质灾害分布在中高风险区。为了有效巩固湖北省的地质灾害防控成效和助力解决隐患(风险)“在哪里、何时转、转移谁”的问题,建议采用继续强化地质灾害减灾防灾救灾体系、继续落实地质灾害汛期“三查”和雨期巡查、强化农村减灾防灾减灾能力建设工作、地质灾害精细化调查评价和综合遥感监测预警向中高风险区倾斜等措施。

       

      Abstract: Hubei Province has comprehensively improved its disaster prevention and mitigation capacity by comprehensively promoting engineering treatment, risk elimination and relocation of existing geological disaster sites, and established a sound " four-in-one " grid management, professional monitoring and early warning, and province-city-county three-level meteorological risk early warning system. While effectively protecting people 's lives and property, the successful prediction rate of geological disasters has increased to nearly 50%, and the characteristics of sudden geological disasters have also changed nearly 50%, and the characteristics of sudden geological disasters have also changed accordingly. Based on the statistics of occurrence time, inducing factors and distribution laws of sudden geological disasters in Hubei Province from 2016 to 2025, this study summarizes the "78-889" pattern. More than 70% of sudden geological disasters are induced by precipitation ( over 90% affected by precipitation ); more than 80% occur outside the known hazard sites; more than 80% are distributed in rural areas; more than 80% lie in the middle-high susceptibility zones; and more than 90% are located in medium-high risk zones. To effectively consolidate the achievements of geological disaster prevention and control in Hubei Province and address the key issue of hidden dangers (risks) concerning “where they occur, when they will evolve, and whom to transfer”, the following measures are recommended: continuing to strengthen the geological disaster prevention, mitigation and relief system; carrying out the “three inspections” during flood season and route inspections during rainfall periods; enhancing the capacity building of disaster prevention and mitigation in rural areas; and prioritizing detailed geological disaster investigation and evaluation as well as comprehensive remote sensing monitoring and early warning in medium and high-risk areas.

       

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