ISSN 1003-8035 CN 11-2852/P

    基于定量化易损性模型的泥石流风险评价以四川省子耳沟为例

    Risk assessment of debris flow based on quantitative vulnerability model: A case study of Zi'er Valley in sichuan province

    • 摘要: 近期西南山区极端降雨频发,泥石流对砌体结构建筑物造成了严重威胁,本文旨在构建一套针对承灾体特性的精细化风险评估方法。结合野外详查、无人机航测与Massflow数值仿真方法,推演了不同降雨频率(P=1%、2%、5%及10%)下泥石流的动力演进全过程,获取流速与泥深等关键参数;并探究泥石流对砌体建筑物的淤埋破坏模式,构建了基于淤埋深度的易损性模型;最后实现了研究区泥石流的精细化风险评价。结果表明:在P=1%降雨频率下,泥石流最大泥深达4.11 m,最大流速为11.2 m/s;随着降雨频率从P=5%降低至P=1%,研究区内建筑物的高易损性和极高易损性数量显著增加,分别增至21栋和18栋;在P=1%降雨频率下,高风险与极高风险区总面积较P=5%降雨频率下增长了194.74%(从1.9×104 m2增至5.6×104 m2),高风险和极高风险建筑物数量增加40座。研究成果可为泥石流防灾减灾和应急路径规划提供科学和理论依据。

       

      Abstract: In recent years, extreme rainfall has occurred frequently in mountainous areas of Southwest China, and debris flows have posed a serious threat to masonry buildings. This study aims to establish a refined risk assessment method based on the characteristics of hazard-affected bodies. Combining field detailed survey, unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) aerial survey and Massflow numerical simulation, the dynamic evolution process of debris flows under different rainfall frequencies (P = 1%, 2%, 5%, and 10%) is reproduced, and key parameters such as flow velocity and flow depth are obtained. The burial failure mode of debris flows on masonry buildings is analyzed, and a vulnerability model based on burial depth is constructed. Finally, refined risk assessment of debris flows in the study area is carried out. The results show that at the rainfall frequency of P = 1%, the maximum flow depth of debris flow reaches 4.11 m and the maximum flow velocity is 11.2 m/s. With the rainfall frequency decreasing from P = 5% to P = 1%, the number of high-vulnerability and extremely high-vulnerability buildings in the study area increases significantly to 21 and 18, respectively. At P = 1%, the total area of high-risk and extremely high-risk zones increases by 194.74% (from 1.9×104 m2 to 5.6×104 m2), and the number of high-risk and extremely high-risk buildings increases by 40. The results can provide a scientific and theoretical basis for debris flow disaster prevention, and mitigation and emergency route planning.

       

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