ISSN 1003-8035 CN 11-2852/P

    XGBoost-SHAP模型在降雨滑坡危险性驱动机制分析中的应用——以北京承德交界山区为例

    Investigating the driving mechanisms of rainfall-induced landslide susceptibility using an XGBoost–SHAP framework: A case study of the mountainous region at the Beijing–Chengde border

    • 摘要: 受极端天气的影响,降雨群发滑坡灾害在山区日渐频繁,对人民生命财产安全和区域经济社会发展构成严重威胁。2025年7月,京津冀地区遭遇了持续性的极端降雨事件,在北京—承德交界山区诱发大量山体滑坡。以该事件解译获取的7907处降雨滑坡数据为研究对象,文章探讨了降雨滑坡危险性评价中各因子的驱动机制。研究选取高程、坡度、坡向、平面曲率、地形起伏度、土地覆盖类型、地层、断层距离、道路距离、累计降雨量和最大日降雨量共11个影响因子,构建XGBoost降雨滑坡危险性评价模型,并结合SHAP方法开展可解释性分析。模型训练集和验证集AUC分别达到0.942和0.932,具有较好的识别精度和泛化能力。SHAP分析显示,最大日降雨与累计降雨量是本次滑坡触发的关键因素,并表现出显著阈值效应。因子交互分析展现了各个环境因子间的相互耦合协同作用,降雨因子与地形、地层条件的耦合进一步放大滑坡危险性。极端降雨条件下滑坡发生的关键控制因子间存在耦合机制。XGBoost-SHAP模型能够有效识别滑坡高危险区,并对因子在模型中作用做出解释。研究结果可为京津冀山区地质灾害风险评估与防灾减灾提供依据和参考。

       

      Abstract: Driven by increasingly frequent extreme weather events, rainfall-induced clustered landslides have become more common in the mountainous regions. It poses a serious threat to the safety of people's lives and property and regional economic and social development. In July 2025, the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei region experienced a prolonged extreme rainfall event, which triggered numerous landslides in the mountainous area along the Beijing–Chengde border. In this study, a total of 7,907 rainfall-induced landslides interpreted from this event were used as the research dataset, to explore the driving mechanisms of various factors in the assessment of rainfall landslide risk. Eleven influencing factors were selected, including elevation, slope, aspect, plane curvature, terrain relief, land cover, stratum, distance to faults, distance to roads, cumulative rainfall, and maximum daily rainfall, construct the XGBoost rainfall landslide risk assessment model, and conduct interpretability analysis combined with the SHAP method. The results show that the model achieved AUC values of 0.942 and 0.932 for the training and validation datasets, with good recognition accuracy and generalization ability. SHAP analysis revealed that maximum daily rainfall and cumulative rainfall were the most critical triggering factors for landslide occurrence during this event, both exhibiting pronounced threshold effects. Factor interaction analysis revealed the coupling and synergistic effects among various environmental factors, and the coupling of rainfall factors with topography and stratigraphic conditions further amplifies landslide risks. There is a coupling mechanism between the key controlling factors of landslide occurrence under extreme rainfall conditions. The XGBoost-SHAP model can effectively identify landslide high-risk areas and explain the role of factors in the model. The research results offering insights for risk assessment and disaster mitigation in the mountainous regions of Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei.

       

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