ISSN 1003-8035 CN 11-2852/P

    堰塞湖溃决生命损失快速评估以岷江流域石坪滑坡为例

    Rapid risk assessment of loss of life in dammed lakes: A case study of the Shiping landslide in the Minjiang River Basin

    • 摘要: 堰塞湖溃决具有突发性、冲击力大、影响范围广等特点,严重威胁下游群众生命财产安全,快速评估堰塞湖溃决可能造成的生命损失,对应急决策、应急疏散等应急响应工作具有重要的指导意义。为达到及时、快速和准确评估的目的,文章构建了一套基于简化参数的堰塞湖溃决生命损失快速评估方法体系,分别从堰塞坝稳定性、溃决洪水峰值流量、溃决洪水演进、洪水生命损失4个模块进行分析和计算,并利用白格滑坡堰塞湖溃决事件进行验证,准确率达到65%。在此基础上,选取岷江流域堵江风险较高的石坪滑坡为预测分析对象,通过文章提出的方法体系评估了堰塞坝的稳定性,计算了全溃条件下的洪水峰值流量及其洪水演进,划定了洪水风险对汶川县城威州镇造成的影响范围,预测了洪水可能造成的失踪人口或死亡人口。案例计算结果显示,在部分报警情况下,石坪滑坡堰塞湖溃决将造成威州镇人口损失约753 人,需加强监测预警、应急预案和应急疏散演练等防灾减灾备灾工作降低灾害风险。通过堰塞湖溃决生命损失快速评估方法体系的建立,可以为堰塞湖灾害的防灾减灾规划和应急处置与决策提供依据。

       

      Abstract: Dammed lakes are characterized by suddenness,high impact and wide range of influence, which seriously threaten the lives and properties of people downstream. Rapid assessment of the potential loss of life is of great significance for emergency decision-making, emergency evacuation and other emergency response activities. In order to achieve timely, rapid and accurate assessment, this paper constructs a system of rapid assessment methods for barrier lake breaching loss of life based on simplified parameters, analyzing and calculating four modules respectively, barrier body stability, outburst flood peak, failure flood evolution and loss of life, and validating them using the Baige Dammed Lakes event with an accuracy rate of 65%. On this basis, the Shiping landslide, which has a high risk of river blockage in the Minjiang River Basin, was selected for prediction and analysis. The stability of the barrier body was assessed through the methodological system proposed in this paper, the peak flood flow under full breach conditions and its flood evolution were calculated, the impact range caused by the flood risk on the Wenchuan County town of Weizhou was delineated, and the possible missing or dead population caused by the flood was predicted. The results of the case calculations show that under partial alarm conditions, the Shiping landslide barrier lake breaching will result in a loss of population of approximately 753 people in Weizhou town, and that disaster prevention, mitigation and preparedness work such as monitoring and early warning, emergency planning and emergency evacuation drills need to be strengthened to reduce disaster risk. A basis for disaster prevention and mitigation planning and emergency response and decision-making for Dammed Lakes can be provided through the establishment of this rapid assessment method system for loss of life.

       

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