ISSN 1003-8035 CN 11-2852/P

    云南省哀牢山区地质灾害因子敏感性和易发性评价以新平县为例

    Sensitivity and Susceptibility Assessment of Geological Hazard Factors in the Ailao Mountain Region of Yunnan province, China ——A case study of Xinping County

    • 摘要: 针对地质灾害敏感因子选取和易发性评价问题,为寻求适宜云南省哀牢山区危险性分区方法,论文选择新平县为典型研究区,选择了工程地质岩组、距断裂距离、海拔、坡度、坡向、距水系距离、道路缓冲区和地类等因子,应用证据权计算法,进行了地质灾害因子敏感分析和易发性评价。评价结果显示地质灾害高易发区面积1532.94 km2、灾点占比74.06%;中易发区面积2119.07 km2、灾点占比24.68%;评价结果与历史地质灾害空间分布特征相符,证明了此次所选取的评价因子和评价模型的合理性,支持云南省哀牢山区灾害防治。

       

      Abstract: In response to the selection of sensitive factors for geological disasters and susceptibility assessment, nd seeking an appropriate method for evaluating the susceptibility of geological disasters in the Ailao Mountain area of Yunnan Province, this paper selects Xinping County as a typical research area, with eight key factors including engineering geological rock formations, distance from fault structures, elevation, slope, slope direction, river buffer zone, roads buffer zone, and land type. The evidence weight method based on Bayesian theory is applied to conduct a sensitivity analysis and susceptibility evaluation of geological hazard factors. The evaluation results show that the areas with high and medium susceptibility to geological disasters covering 1532.94 km2 and 2119.07 km2, respectively, with 74.06% and 24.68% of geological disaster points falling within these regions. These findings are highly consistent with the spatial distribution of historical geological disasters, proving the rationality of the chosen evaluation factors and models. This study provides valuable insights for the evaluation of geological disaster susceptibility in the Ailao Mountain area of Yunnan Province.

       

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