Comparative study of multi-coupling models for geohazard risk assessment along mountain highway in the hilly areas of Jiangxi Province
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摘要:
山区公路沿线地质灾害发育,影响山区城镇居民交通出行和生命财产安全。危险性评价可以综合分析地质灾害孕灾环境和致灾因子的贡献特征,对于公路防灾减灾具有重要的指导作用。以江西省S223省道竹头坑子—渠坎下段为例,基于频率比(frequency ratio,FR),耦合熵指数(entropy index,EI)、层次分析法(analytic hierarchy process,AHP)及二者组合权(EI-AHP),构建4种地质灾害危险性评价模型;针对公路沿线地质环境与地质灾害发育特征,选取自然坡度、坡向、地形起伏度、坡面形态、切坡高度、切坡坡度、地层岩性、断层与斜坡的关系等8个评价因子作为危险性评价指标,以斜坡单元作为评价单元,采用FR量化评价因子,结合AHP、EI计算评价因子的主客观权重,依托ArcGIS平台得到基于FR的多耦合模型,绘制不同评价模型的公路沿线地质灾害危险性分区图。结果表明:FR、EI-FR、AHP-FR及EI-AHP-FR 4个评价模型的AUC值分别为0.746,0.811,0.836,0.833,表明AHP-FR评价模型的预测精度最高,能有效对公路沿线地质灾害进行危险性评价;最终划分江西省S223省道竹头坑子—渠坎下段高危险区、较高危险区、中危险区、较低危险区、低危险区的面积依次为0.295,0.570,1.509,0.354,1.732 km2,分别占全区总面积的6.66%、12.79%、33.86%、7.97%、38.71%。研究结果可为公路的安全建设和正常运营提供科学的地质参考依据。
Abstract:Geological hazards along mountain highways affect the transportation and safety of residents in mountainous towns. Risk assessment comprehensively analyzes the contributing characteristics of the geological hazard-prone environment and triggering factors, which is crucial for highway disaster prevention and mitigation. Taking the lower section of the provincial highway Zhutoukengzi - Dukanxia road (S223) in Jiangxi Province as an example, four types of geologic hazard evaluation models were constructed based on frequency ratio (FR), coupled entropy index (EI), hierarchical analysis method (AHP) and the combination of the two (EI- AHP). For the development characteristics of the geological environment and geologic hazards along the highway, the natural slopes were selected and the geologic hazards are evaluated. AHP), to construct four kinds of geohazard risk evaluation models. For the geological environment and geohazard development characteristics along the highway, eight evaluation factors, such as natural slope, slope direction, topographic relief, slope morphology, slope cutting height, slope cutting gradient, stratigraphic lithology, and the relationship between faults and slopes were selected as the risk evaluation indexes, and the slope units were selected as the evaluation unit, and FR was used to quantify the evaluation factors, and AHP and EI were combined to calculate the evaluation factors. AHP and EI were used to calculate the subjective and objective weights of the evaluation factors, and the multi-coupling model based on FR was obtained by relying on the ArcGIS platform, and the geohazard hazard zoning maps along the highway with different evaluation models were drawn. The results show that the AUC values of the four evaluation models, FR, EI-FR, AHP-FR and EI-AHP-FR, are 0.746, 0.811, 0.836, 0.833, respectively, indicating that the AHP-FR evaluation model has the highest prediction accuracy and can effectively evaluate the risk of geologic hazards along the highway. The areas classified as high-risk, relatively high-risk, moderate-risk, relatively low-risk, and low-risk zones for the lower section of the Zhutoukengzi-Qukan road in Jiangxi Province were 0.295 km2, 0.570 km2, 1.509 km2, 0.354 km2, and 1.732 km2, respectively, accounting for 6.66%, 12.79%, 33.86%, 7.97%, and 38.71% of the total area. This study provided a comprehensive zoning of potential geological hazards along the S223 road, offering scientific geological reference for the safe construction and operation of roads.
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表 1 地质灾害评价指标分级
Table 1 Evaluation index classification of geohazards
危险性评价因子 基于斜坡单元的评价因子分级 地形地貌 自然坡度/(°) <18 18~24 24~32 >32 — 坡向/(°) 108~152 153~196 197~241 242~285 — 地形起伏度/(°) <12 12~24 24~36 >36 — 坡面形态 平直坡 凸形坡 凹形坡 阶梯形坡 — 人类工程活动 切坡坡度/(°) 未切坡 <40 40~50 50~60 >60 切坡高度/m 未切坡 <8 8~16 16~24 >24 地层岩性 地层岩组 松散堆积岩组 软硬互层岩组 较坚硬岩组 — — 地质构造 断层与斜坡关系 未相交 断层与斜坡垂直 断层与斜坡斜交 断层与斜坡平行 — 表 2 EI、AHP及组合赋权权重值
Table 2 Weight value of EI,AHP and combination of empowerment
评价因子 EI AHP EI-AHP 自然坡度 0.138 0.087 0.104 坡向 0.144 0.088 0.110 地形起伏度 0.120 0.085 0.088 坡面形态 0.100 0.118 0.103 切坡坡度 0.102 0.276 0.246 切坡高度 0.110 0.239 0.228 地层岩性 0.194 0.042 0.071 断层与斜坡关系 0.091 0.064 0.051 表 3 评价因子FR值
Table 3 Frequency ratio of evaluation factors
评价因子 评价因子分级 FR 评价因子 评价因子分级 FR 自然坡度/(°) <18 0.2957 0.2926 0.989 切坡坡度/(°) 未切坡 0.2745 0.0274 0.100 18~24 0.1233 0.3753 3.045 <40 0.1150 0.0281 0.244 24~32 0.0238 0.2004 8.411 40~50 0.2712 0.3880 1.431 >32 0.0305 0.0533 1.745 50~60 0.2810 0.4747 1.689 坡向/(°) 108~152 0.1385 0.0047 0.034 >60 0.0583 0.0818 1.402 152~196 0.2615 0.0788 0.302 切坡高度/m 未切坡 0.2745 0.0274 0.100 196~241 0.4646 0.5379 1.158 <8 0.2483 0.0989 0.398 241~285 0.1354 0.3785 2.795 8~16 0.3195 0.4977 1.558 地形起伏度/m <12 0.5070 0.0730 0.144 16~24 0.0932 0.2840 3.049 12~24 0.3845 0.6174 1.606 >24 0.0646 0.0920 1.424 24~36 0.0780 0.2563 3.284 地层岩性 松散堆积岩组 0.0702 0.0712 1.014 >36 0.0305 0.0533 1.745 软硬互层岩组 0.0406 0.2373 5.847 坡面形态 平直坡 0.2295 0.2767 1.206 较坚硬岩组 0.8577 0.6915 0.806 凸形坡 0.3726 0.5132 1.377 断层与斜坡 未相交 0.7264 0.6388 0.879 凹形坡 0.3417 0.1161 0.340 断层与斜坡垂直 0.1242 0.1825 1.469 阶梯形坡 0.0562 0.0940 1.674 断层与斜坡斜交 0.1166 0.1132 0.970 断层与斜坡平行 0.0327 0.0655 2.004 表 4 不同模型灾害点覆盖率检验
Table 4 Coverage test for different modeled disaster point
评价模型 低危险 较低危险 漏报率/% 中危险 较高危险 高危险 准确率/% 灾害点 比例/% 灾害点 比例/% 灾害点 比例/% 灾害点 比例/% 灾害点 比例/% FR 2 4.44 7 15.56 20.00 26 57.78 8 17.78 2 4.44 80.00 AHP-FR 2 4.44 2 4.44 8.89 23 51.11 11 24.44 7 15.56 91.11 EI-FR 2 4.44 3 6.67 11.11 24 53.33 10 22.22 6 13.33 88.89 AHP-EI-FR 2 4.44 3 6.67 11.11 22 48.89 11 24.44 7 15.56 88.89 -
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