ISSN 1003-8035 CN 11-2852/P

    考虑岩土体物理力学参数空间校准分区的滑坡危险性评价

    Landslide hazard assessment considering spatial calibration zoning of physical and mechanical parameters of rock and soil mass

    • 摘要: 滑坡危险性评价是区域滑坡灾害风险预警与管控的关键环节之一。分布式斜坡稳定性定量评估模型SINMAP(Stability Index MAPping)因能有效反映边坡稳定性的物理力学机制,广泛用于滑坡危险性评价中,但传统SINMAP模型忽略了岩土体特征随地质环境变化而产生的空间差异性,导致评价结果精确度偏低。针对上述不足,本文开展了基于不同空间校准区域的改进SINMAP模型研究。以重庆市万州区大周镇为例,经频率比和敏感性指数分析,从反映滑坡成因的8个指标因子中确定岩土体类型、植被覆盖度和距道路距离作为关键指标因子。根据关键指标因子的空间分布差异,将研究区划分为6个不同空间校准区域,赋予对应岩土体物理力学参数,开展传统SINMAP及其改进模型的滑坡危险性评价对比研究。结果表明:1)总体上,两种模型预测的高和极高滑坡危险区主要分布在研究区库岸、河流两侧以及工程活动强烈的区域。2)最危险工况下,改进SINMAP模型的AUC值为86.8%,高于传统SINMAP模型的AUC值73.9%,识别准确度提高了12.9%。3)在滑坡灾害局部计算结果上,最危险工况下有81.82%的真实滑坡点落入中危险等级以上的区域,大于传统SINMAP模型的72.73%。因而,改进SINMAP模型具备识别效果更佳,识别结果空间分布较连续,计算结果更符合真实滑坡实际发育特征的优势。

       

      Abstract: Landslide hazard assessment is a crucial component of regional landslide disaster risk warning and control. The distributed slope stability quantitative evaluation model SINMAP (Stability Index MAPping) is widely used in landslide hazard assessment because it effectively mirrors the physical and mechanical mechanisms underlying slope stability. However, traditional SINMAP models overlook the spatial differences in rock and soil characteristics due to geological environmental changes, resulting in low accuracy in assessment results. To address these deficiencies, this paper explored an enhanced SINMAP model tailored to various spatial calibration zones.Using Dazhou Town, Wanzhou District, Chongqing as a case study and employing frequency ratio and sensitivity index analysis, the key indicator factors are determined as rock and soil type, vegetation coverage, and proximity to roads from the eight indicator factors reflecting the cause of landslides. Based on the spatial distribution differences of key indicators, the study area was segmented into 6 different spatial calibration zones, and each assigned corresponding physical and mechanical parameters of the rock and soil. A comparative study of landslide hazard assessment using both traditional SINMAP and its improved models was conducted. The results indicate that: 1) Overall, the high and extremely high-risk landslide zones predicted by the two models are mainly distributed along the reservoir bank, adjacent to the river, and areas with strong engineering activities in the study area. 2) Under the most dangerous working conditions, the improved SINMAP model achieved an AUC value of 86.8%, surpassing the traditional model’s AUC of 73.9%, and enhancing the accuracy of landslide recognition by 12.9%. 3) In the local calculation results of landslide disasters, 81.82% of the actual landslide points were in areas above the medium risk level under the most dangerous working conditions, compared to 72.73% in the traditional SINMAP model. Therefore, the improved SINMAP model offers superior detection capabilities, a more continuous spatial distribution of detection results, and more accurate alignment with the real-world characteristics of landslide development.

       

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