Abstract: The new Yichang-Zhengwan High-speed Railway connection line crosses the eastern edge of the Dabashan arc tectonic belt in the Qinling orogenic belt, with strong neotectonic movement, mixed stratigraphic lithology, large topographic relief, and a large number of perilous rocks developed on the upward slopes of tunnel entrances, which poses a serious threat to the safety of the construction and operation of the connection line. On the basis of the preliminary evaluation during the survey phase, this paper takes 36 risky slopes screened out in the preliminary evaluation as research objects to carry out re-evaluation. Considering the efficacy of temporary construction protective measures, we narrowed down two high-risk tunnels using stereographic projection analysis and the fuzzy mathematical analytic hierarchy process. Subsequently, the predictive analysis was conducted to assess the dynamic characteristics of falling rocks by Rockpro3D simulation based on GIS and probability models. The results show that: (1) The exit of the Weijiashan tunnel has a low probability of being impacted by falling rocks, while the exit of the Laolingang tunnel has an extremely high probability of being impacted by falling rocks; (2) The probability of the perilous rock of Laolingang tunnel impacting directly on the tunnel opening is 24.73%, with the maximum impact energy of 6,693 kJ and the maximum speed of 26.2 m/s, and the impact points are concentrated in the right side of the tunnel entrance; (3) According to the factors of impact probability, impact energy, impact velocity, woods and topography, there is an urgent need for engineering management of perilous rock zone 3. The research results can provide reference for the effective prevention and control of perilous rocks in the tunnel of Zhengwan High-speed Railway connection line.