ISSN 1003-8035 CN 11-2852/P

    基于时序InSAR与多时序编录的甘肃黑方台滑坡易发性动态评价

    Dynamic evaluation of landslide susceptibility in Heifangtai, Gansu based on time-series InSAR and multi-temporal cataloguing

    • 摘要: 我国西部山区滑坡灾害频发,准确划分滑坡灾害风险等级对地质灾害至关重要。数据驱动模型已在滑坡易发性评价中取得显著进展,然而在大比例尺小区域尺度下仍面临缺乏动态特征数据和过度依赖样本纯度的挑战。针对此,本文提出了一种基于融合时序InSAR形变与数据驱动模型的综合评价新方法。该方法首先引入时序InSAR形变监测数据作为动态因子,基于多重共线性分析筛选因子,构建滑坡易发性动态评价体系。随后,利用多种机器学习方法构建滑坡易发性评价模型,获取大比例尺小区域滑坡最优易发性预测模型,并以此为基础进行顾及InSAR地表形变和多时序编录的滑坡易发性评价。本文选取甘肃黑方台为研究对象,结果表明,大比例尺小区域尺度下Maxent模型精度表现最优。此外,相对于未融入时序InSAR形变特征,本文融入时序InSAR形变特征的滑坡动态易发性图有效提高识别效果,模型预测精度提升约0.36%,在极高易发区和高易发区中,滑坡占比提升了4.29%。以八年时间滑坡编录数据为正样本,模型精度为99.26%,表明基于长时序高质量正样本能够显著提高区域易发性预测的精度和可靠性。本研究通过对动态评价体系和不同时间维度滑坡数据对滑坡易发性的探索,有助于提高大比例尺(小区域)滑坡风险评价的精确度。

       

      Abstract: Landslide disasters occur frequently in the mountainous regions of western China, and accurate classification of landslide hazard risk levels is crucial for effective geohazard mitigation. Data-driven models have achieved notable progress in landslide susceptibility evaluation; however, challenges persist at large-scale, small-area levels due to limited dynamic features and excessive dependence on sample purity. To address this, this paper proposes a new integrated evaluation method based on the fusion of time-series InSAR deformation data with machine learning models. In this approach, InSAR-derived deformation is introduced as a dynamic factor, and multicollinearity analysis is employed to screen and optimize evaluation indicators. Subsequently, various machine learning methods are used to construct a landslide susceptibility evaluation model, obtain the optimal susceptibility prediction model for large-scale and small-area landslides, and then carry out the landslide susceptibility evaluation while accounting for InSAR-based surface deformation and multi-temporal landslide catalogues. In this paper, Heifangtai in Gansu Province is selected as the study area, and the results show that the Maxent model has the best accuracy in the large-scale, small-area conditions. In addition, compared with models that exclude InSAR data, the incorporation of time-series deformation features improves the model's prediction accuracy by approximately 0.36%, and increases the proportion of landslides identified within very high and high susceptibility zones by 4.29%. Using an eight-year time landslide catalogued data as positive samples, the model achieves an accuracy of 99.26%, highlighting the effectiveness of long time-series, high-quality data in improving the accuracy and reliability of regional susceptibility assessments. This study contributes a dynamic evaluation framework that enhances the accuracy of landslide susceptibility mapping and offers valuable insights for risk assessment in large-scale, small-area geohazard-prone regions.

       

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