Disaster mechanism and evolutionary process of landslide-debris flow in Zhangjiaheba Gully, Jiuzhaigou County
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摘要:
四川省九寨沟县保华乡张家河坝沟2022年至今先后暴发了规模不等的泥石流灾害10余次，2024年7月24日，该沟再次暴发泥石流，对当地居民、道路及基础设施等造成了极大的损失。流域内发育的黄土滑坡是致使泥石流反复多次暴发的主要因素。通过现场调查、水文模型计算、地震模型计算和长短尺度的降雨分析对张家河坝沟“7•24”滑坡-泥石流灾害链进行研究。研究结果表明：张家河坝沟“7•24”滑坡-泥石流容重为2.116 g/cm3，属于黏性泥石流，平均流速为4.87 m/s，平均冲压力为5.29 Kpa。其成灾机制是受地震和降雨共同影响，九寨沟7.0级地震在张家河坝沟处地震动峰值加速度为183.11 cm/s2，远大于临界加速度98 cm/s2，对滑坡造成永久破坏，使滑坡结构松散，滑坡成灾；张家河坝沟泥石流爆发降雨临界量为13.52 mm，7月24日当天日降雨量为45.8 mm，远超临界降雨值，激发了滑坡-泥石流灾害链的形成。灾害链演化过程表现为地震-降雨-滑坡-泥石流-往复再生的模式，成链过程由强震与降雨主导；受降雨影响，张家河坝沟内黄土滑坡不断滑出致使流域内泥石流和滑坡往复再生。研究成果为张家河坝沟滑坡-泥石流灾害链的工程治理及防灾减灾提供可靠依据。
Abstract:Since 2022, Zhangjiaheba Gully in Baohua Township, Jiuzhaigou County, Sichuan Province, has experienced over 10 debris flow disasters of varying scales. On July 24, 2024, the gully was once again hit by a debris flow, causing significant damage to local residents, roads, and infrastructure. The development of loess landslides within the watershed is the primary factor contributing to the frequent occurrences of debris flows. The “7•24” landslide-debris flow disaster chain in Zhangjiaheba Gully was investigated through field surveys, hydrological model calculations, seismic model calculations, and rainfall analysis across varying timescales. The research findings reveal that the “7•24” landslide-debris flow in Zhangjiaheba Gully has a bulk density of 2.116 g/cm3, classifying it as a viscous debris flow with an average flow velocity of 4.87 m/s and an average impact pressure of 5.29 Kpa. Its disaster-causing mechanism is attributed to the combined effects of earthquakes and rainfall. The peak ground acceleration of the 7.0-magnitude Jiuzhaigou earthquake at the Zhangjiaheba Gully reached 183.11 cm/s2, far exceeding the critical acceleration of 98 cm/s2, causing permanent damage to the landslide, loosening its structure, and increasing its susceptibility to failure. The triggering rainfall threshold for debris flow in the Zhangjiaheba Gully was 13.52 mm. On July 24th, the daily rainfall reached 45.8 mm, significantly exceeding the threshold, which initiated the formation of the landslide-debris flow disaster chain. The evolution process of this disaster chain follows a pattern of earthquake-rainfall-landslide-debris flow-reciprocal regeneration, with the chain formation process primarily driven by strong earthquakes and rainfall. Influenced by rainfall, continuous loess landslides in Zhangjiaheba Gully result in the reciprocal regeneration of debris flows and landslides within the watershed. These research outcomes provide a reliable scientific basis for the engineering management and disaster prevention and mitigation of the landslide-debris flow disaster chain in Zhangjiaheba Gully.
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Keywords:
- Zhangjiaheba Gully /
- geohazard chain /
- loess /
- debris flow /
- geohazard mechanism /
- evolution process
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图 2 黄土滑坡遥感影像及无人机航拍图
Figure 2. The remote sensing images and UAV aerial photography of loess landslides
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图 8 九寨沟县张家河坝沟“7•24”泥石流发生前期的累计降雨量和当日降雨量数据
Figure 8. Previous cumulative and daily rainfall data of Zhangjiaheba gully“7•24”debris flow in Jiuzhaigou county
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图 11 张家河坝沟滑坡-泥石流灾害链往复再生过程
Figure 11. The repetitive regeneration process of the Zhangjiaheba gully landslide-debris flow disaster chain
表 1 泥石流运动特征参数计算模型
Table 1 Calculation model of debris flow motion characteristic parameter
运动特征参数 计算模型 参数说明 容重 流速
用沟道纵坡率代替；冲压力 P为泥石流冲压力（Kpa）；
g为重力加速度（m/s2，g取9.8m/s2）α为建筑物受力面与泥石流冲压力方向的夹角（°）
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表 2 现场调查试验法计算
Table 2 Calculation by field investigation and experimental method
试验
位置配制泥浆重量
G（kg）配置浆体深度
H（cm）配制泥浆体积
V（cm3）泥石流容重 平均容重 堆积区 20.5 18.5 9733 2.106 2.116 22.1 19.5 10298 2.146 19.8 18 9452 2.095
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表 3 张家坝沟泥石流运动参数计算结果
Table 3 Calculation results of debris flow motion parameters in Zhangjiaba gully
计算断面 平均泥深Hc/m 沟道纵坡率Ic 糙率系数（1/nc） 断面流速vc/（m·s-1） 平均流速vc/（m·s-1） 泥石流流体冲压力（Kpa） 平均冲压力（Kpa） Asc1 1.2 0.105 15 3.50 4.87 2.65 5.29 Asc2 2.0 0.105 15 4.66 4.69 Asc3 2.8 0.105 15 5.39 6.27 Asc4 3.4 0.105 15 5.91 7.54
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表 4 2008年至2024年影响张家河坝沟5.0级及以上地震
Table 4 Earthquakes of magnitude 5.0 or greater affecting Zhangjiaheba gully from 2008 to 2024
序号 发震时间 经度
/（°）纬度
/（°）震级
/Ms震中距
/km地震动峰值
加速度（gal）1 2008-05-12 103.322 31.002 8.0 259.2 22.55 2 2017-08-08 103.8552 33.1926 7.0 36.24 161.43 3 2013-04-20 102.888 30.308 6.6 345.83 3.39 4 2008-05-25 105.423 32.56 6.1 131.45 10.09 5 2008-05-12 103.618 31.214 6.1 228.41 3.87 6 2008-08-05 105.49 32.756 6.0 126.99 9.46 7 2008-05-17 104.98 32.24 5.8 127.35 7.30 8 2008-08-01 104.722 32.033 5.7 137.39 5.62 9 2008-07-24 105.542 32.747 5.7 131.52 6.06 10 2008-05-27 105.54 32.71 5.7 133.01 5.94 11 2008-05-12 104.032 31.586 5.7 180.52 3.48 12 2008-07-23 105.498 32.752 5.5 127.51 4.88 13 2020-10-22 104.235 31.9456 5.3 139.55 3.15 14 2009-03-12 105.10 32.386 5.3 120.84 4.06 15 2008-05-12 105.23 32.436 5.3 125.91 3.78 16 2020-10-21 104.2275 31.9179 5.2 142.62 2.63 17 2009-10-29 105.24 32.522 5.2 119.92 3.57 18 2008-06-05 105.01 32.349 5.2 118.65 3.63 19 2008-05-27 105.53 32.699 5.2 133.91 2.94 20 2008-05-19 105.27 32.451 5.2 128.38 3.17 21 2017-09-30 105.0428 32.2813 5.1 126.8 2.80 22 2008-12-09 105.40 32.518 5.1 131.91 2.61 23 2008-09-11 105.63 32.911 5.1 133.40 2.56 24 2008-05-14 104.03 31.996 5.1 135.42 2.49 25 2008-05-12 105.20 32.372 5.1 128.73 2.72 26 2014-06-09 105.1835 32.4987 5.0 117.71 2.75 27 2011-10-31 105.319 32.531 5.0 126.79 2.41 28 2008-05-27 105.38 32.67 5.0 121.82 2.59 29 2008-05-19 105.04 32.402 5.0 116.19 2.82 30 2008-05-12 104.65 32.12 5.0 126.10 2.44
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表 5 张家河坝沟历史泥石流暴发时间及降雨
Table 5 Historical debris flow occurrences and rainfall in Zhangjiaheba gully
泥石流暴发时间 累计降雨（mm） 当日降雨（mm） r1 r2 r3 r4 r5 r6 当日降雨（mm） ran 2022.7.12 40.8 21.5 3 3.1 0.2 2.3 9.1 1.5 21.5 10.3 2022.7.17 50.9 2 15 2.8 3.1 2.1 21.5 4.4 2 28.00 2022.8.2 10.8 0 5.1 0.7 4.3 0 0.5 0.2 0 7.61 2022.8.24 17.5 0 13.2 0 1 0 2 1.3 0 12.97 2022.10.4 13 0.3 7.4 2 1.3 1.9 0.1 0 0.3 9.39 2023.6.24 37.6 7.4 29.8 0.2 0.1 0 0 0.1 7.4 25.27 2023.6.26 53.2 6.8 6 7.4 2.9 0 30.1 0 6.8 24.57 2023.6.28 57.7 2.5 2 6.8 8.9 7.4 30.1 0 2.5 28.03 2023.7.3 19.9 12.9 4.5 1 0.3 0.1 0 1.1 12.9 5.10 2023.7.20 14.2 0.3 2.6 9.7 1 0 0 0.6 0.3 9.83 2023.7.21 14.1 0.5 0.3 2.6 9.7 1 0 0 0.5 8.33 2023.7.22 26.5 12.4 0.5 0.3 2.6 9.7 1 0 12.4 7.42 2023.7.27 48.7 34.1 1.6 0 0 0.1 12.4 0.5 34.1 6.76 2023.8.6 12.5 9.5 2.4 0.3 0.1 0.2 0 0 9.5 2.39 2023.8.7 13.6 1.1 9.5 0.2 0 0.1 2.7 0 1.1 9.30
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