ISSN 1003-8035 CN 11-2852/P

    珠海市软土地面沉降多变量回归LSTM模型预测研究

    Research on Multivariate Regression LSTM Model for Predicting Soft Soil Ground Settlement in Zhuhai City

    • 摘要: 针对珠海市软土分布区地面沉降所带来的城市安全问题,研究聚焦于多变量预测模型的构建与优化方法研究。鉴于传统预测方法在非线性沉降预测中的不足,研究根据珠海市软土工程特性,创新性地提出了多变量回归LSTM预测模型,该模型能充分融合InSAR监测数据与多种影响因素之间的非线性关系。通过系统筛选出包括地下水开采强度、软土层厚度和压缩模量等10组关键影响因素,并结合LSTM门控结构机制,该模型成功摆脱了传统方法对物理参数时效性与监测数据完备性的依赖。预测结果显示,模型预测值与真实数据拟合度高,误差控制在±5mm内的占比超88%,测试集R2系数高达0.91,模型展现出高精确和可靠性。研究进一步通过智能优化算法实现超参数和特征选择的优化,使模型R2系数提升至0.98以上,优化效果显著。但在面对复杂地质环境和严重区域差异时,需结合多种监测技术以确保数据准确性与模型的精度。实践表明,该模型可应用于城市规划、防灾减灾等方面,能为政府部门和专家提供可靠的地面沉降数据,其自适应学习机制对珠江三角洲同类软土区具有推广价值。

       

      Abstract: In response to the urban safety concerns caused by ground settlement in soft soil zones of Zhuhai City, this research focuses on the development and optimization of a multivariate prediction model. Recognizing the limitations of traditional prediction methods in modeling nonlinear settlement behavior, a novel multivariate regression LSTM prediction model is proposed, based on the characteristics of soft soils in the region. The model fully integrates InSAR monitoring data with various nonlinear influencing factors. Ten key influencing factors, including groundwater extraction intensity, soft soil layer thickness, and compression modulus, were systematically selected. Leveraging the LSTM’s gated structure, the model successfully eliminates the reliance on the time-sensitive physical parameters and the completeness of monitoring data typical of conventional methods. The results demonstrates strong predictive performance: over 88% of errors fall within ± 5mm, and the R2 coefficient of the test set reaches as high as 0.91, indicating the model’s high accuracy and reliability. Further enhancement through intelligent optimization algorithms significantly improved hyperparameter tuning and feature selection, pushing the R2 above 0.98. However, the model’s performance in geologically complex or highly heterogeneous regions still depends on the integration of diverse monitoring technologies to ensure data validity and model precision. Practical application suggests that the model can be effectively used in urban planning, disaster prevention and mitigation, providing reliable land subsidence data for government agencies and experts. Its adaptive learning mechanism holds significant potential for broader application in other similar soft soil regions across the Pearl River Delta.

       

    /

    返回文章
    返回