ISSN 1003-8035 CN 11-2852/P

    泥石流易发性间谍技术随机森林模型研究以岷江上游为例

    Study on debris flow susceptibility based on SPY-RF model: A case study of the upper Minjiang River basin

    • 摘要: 泥石流作为一种由强降雨或冰雪融化引发的高浓度非均质流体,具有复杂的形成和运动过程。评估泥石流的易发性对于灾害监测与应对具有重要的实际意义。传统方法难以准确预测泥石流的发生,因此近年来机器学习算法在该领域的应用逐渐增多。本文以岷江上游为例,提出一种基于间谍技术(SPY)的随机森林模型SPY-RF,用于构建泥石流易发性评价系统。SPY方法通过对未标记数据进行伪负样本生成,克服了不平衡数据集在负样本获取上的局限性,提高了模型的区分能力。在研究中选取14个评价因子,如沟壑密度、岩性、流域面积等,结合遥感影像和地质灾害数据构建泥石流数据集。通过SPY技术优化负样本的获取,结合随机森林模型对泥石流易发性进行建模。结果显示,SPY-RF模型和RF模型的AUC值分别为0.98、0.93,且SPY-RF模型性能指标整体优于RF模型,SPY-RF模型在预测泥石流易发性方面表现出较高的精确度和稳定性,极高易发区与现有泥石流点的分布吻合,在极低和低风险区域也能识别泥石流点。在负样本获取和筛选策略上,采用SPY技术显著提高了负样本的质量,从而提升了模型的预测精度和可靠性。为岷江上游地区泥石流风险管理提供了参考依据。

       

      Abstract: Debris flow is a high-concentration, heterogeneous, multiphase flow typically triggered by intense rainfall or snowmelt. Its complex formation and movement processes make accurate susceptibility assessment vital for disaster monitoring and mitigation. Traditional methods often fall short in predictive accuracy, leading to a growing adoption of machine learning algorithms in this field in recent years. This study proposes a debris flow susceptibility assessment model, SPY-RF, which integrates the random forest (RF) algorithm with the spy technique (SPY), using the upper Minjiang River Basin as a case study. The SPY method addresses the common issue of class imbalance by generating high-quality pseudo-negative samples from unlabeled data, thereby enhancing the model’s classification performance. A total of fourteen assessment factors, including gully density, lithology, area, and others, were selected based on geological disaster data and remote sensing imagery to construct a comprehensive debris flow dataset. The SPY technique was utilized to optimize the negative sample selection process, which was then combined with the RF model to evaluate susceptibility. The findings indicate that the SPY-RF model outperforms the traditional RF model, achieving an AUC of 0.98 compared to 0.93. The predicted distribution of extremely high susceptibility areas aligns closely with the current debris flow points, indicating that the SPY-RF model predicts debris flow susceptibility with greater accuracy and stability. Additionally, the model also successfully identifies debris flow occurrences in low-risk and extremely low-risk susceptibility areas. The quality of negative samples was greatly increased by using SPY technology in terms of negative sample acquisition and filtering techniques, which raised the prediction accuracy and dependability of the model. The proposed SPY-RF model serves as a useful guidance for managing the risk of debris flows in the upper Minjiang River basin.

       

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