气候变化背景下降雨滑坡风险评估研究进展

黄雨; 何正迎

doi:10.16031/j.cnki.issn.1003-8035.202501002

气候变化背景下降雨滑坡风险评估研究进展

黄雨^{1, 2,},
何正迎¹

1.
同济大学土木工程学院地下建筑与工程系，上海　200092
2.
土木工程防灾减灾全国重点实验室（同济大学），上海　200092

基金项目: 国家重点研发计划项目（2024YFC3012600）

详细信息

作者简介:
黄　雨（1973—），男，江苏南京人，工学博士，教授，主要从事工程地质教学与科研工作。E-mail：yhuang@tongji.edu.cn

中图分类号: P642.22
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出版历程
- 收稿日期: 2025-01-01
- 修回日期: 2025-02-16
- 网络出版日期: 2025-03-16
- 刊出日期: 2025-04-24

Research progress on rainfall-triggered landslide risk assessment under the context of climate change

Yu HUANG^{1, 2,},
Zhengying HE¹

1.
Department of Geotechnical Engineering, College of Civil Engineering, Tongji University, Shanghai　200092, China
2.
State Key Laboratory of Disaster Reduction in Civil Engineering, Tongji University, Shanghai　200092, China

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摘要

摘要:
随着全球气候变化的加剧，极端降雨事件日益频繁，导致降雨型滑坡灾害频发，造成了巨大的人员伤亡与经济损失。文章系统回顾了气候变化背景下降雨型滑坡风险评估的研究进展，重点讨论了以下三个关键方面：（1）考虑气候变化的降雨作用下边坡可靠度评估；（2）考虑降雨模式不确定性的边坡易损性评估；（3）基于机器学习方法的降雨型滑坡危险性评估。在此基础上，文章进一步分析了气候变化背景下降雨型滑坡风险评估所面临的多维挑战，包括气候变化带来的不确定性、高时空分辨率地质气象数据缺乏以及模型跨区域的适应性等。最后，文章从精细的地质调查、多因素孕灾机理、基于韧性的风险评估等角度，展望了实现降雨型滑坡灾害韧性防灾的未来研究方向。研究旨在为降雨型滑坡灾害的防灾减灾工作提供理论支持和方法参考，促进滑坡灾害风险管理的科学化与精细化发展。
- 降雨型滑坡 /
- 风险评估 /
- 不确定性 /
- 气候变化 /
- 韧性防灾
Abstract:
With the intensification of global climate change, extreme rainfall events have become increasingly frequent, leading to recurrent rainfall-triggered landslides and causing significant casualties and economic losses. With the context of climate change, this study systematically reviews the research progress on advancements in probabilistic risk assessment of rainfall-triggered landslides, focusing on three key aspects: (1) slope reliability assessment under rainfall conditions considering climate change; (2) vulnerability assessment of slopes considering the uncertainty of rainfall patterns; and (3) rainfall-induced landslide hazard assessment based on machine learning methods. On this basis, this study further analyzes the multidimensional challenges faced by rainfall-triggered landslide risk assessment under climate change, including uncertainties associated with climate change, the lack of high spatio-temporal resolution geological and meteorological data, and the adaptability of models across different regions. Finally, from the perspectives of detailed geological surveys, multi-factor disaster gestation mechanisms, this study looks towards future research directions for enhancing resilience in rainfall-induced landslide disaster prevention, from landslide mechanisms under multiple factors, to resilience-based risk assessment. This study aims to provide theoretical support and methodological references for the disaster prevention and mitigation work of rainfall-triggered landslides, promoting the scientific, systematic, and refined development of landslide risk management.
- rainfall-induced landslide /
- risk assessment /
- uncertainty /
- climate change /
- disaster resilience.

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0. 引言

我国山区高填方机场具有平整范围大、跨越的地质单元多、周边限制因素多、地形地貌及地质条件复杂、施工环境恶劣、土石方量巨大、挖填高度大、填料性质复杂且可选余地小等特点^{[1 − 2]}，因此高填方是我国山区机场建设的重要特点。高填方边坡是机场的临空面，其稳定性是高填方机场成败的关键^[3]，是山区机场建设最为重要的核心技术问题之一。

重力式挡墙依靠墙体自重来抵抗土体侧压力，可采用浆砌块石或混凝土结构，具有就地取材、施工简单、经济性好、耐久性好、可靠性高、能显著节约土石方及征地面积等优势^{[4 − 5]}，是最为常用的边坡支挡结构^{[4, 6]}，但对于填方边坡其高度一般不超过10 m^[7]。随着我国经济社会的发展，超高重力式挡墙在市政、水利、港口等行业中逐渐得到应用，例如贵阳某市政道路采用22 m高的重力式路肩墙^[8]，深圳市检察院培训基地采用了22 m高的扶壁式钢筋混凝土路肩墙^[9]，涪陵货运港采用了高约30 m的重力式路肩墙^[10]，宜兴抽水蓄能电站采用了92.3 m高堆石边坡加45.9 m高钢筋混凝土挡墙相结合的混合坝型^{[11 − 13]}。然而，超高重力式挡墙在岩溶发育场地高填方工程中尚无应用案例报道。

岩溶发育场地工程地质及水文地质条件复杂，溶沟、溶槽、落水洞、地下溶洞、溶蚀裂隙等喀斯特地貌发育，岩体较为破碎，基覆界面起伏大，岩溶充填物及覆盖层物质组成及力学性质极不均匀，是典型的特殊不良地基^{[14 − 16]}，对各类建构筑物及场地稳定性造成较大影响^{[15 − 19]}。山区机场高填方边坡高度高、填筑面积大，填方荷载大且作用复杂，对支挡结构强度及稳定性要求高^{[3, 20 − 21]}。超高混凝土挡墙强度高，能承受较大的土压力，但其自重大、重心高、对沉降敏感，对地基强度及均匀性、墙身材料强度等要求高^{[12 − 13]}。因此，在岩溶发育场地采用超高重力式挡墙进行高填方边坡支挡，可能存在地基承载力不足、不均匀沉降量大、墙身强度不足、边坡深部抗滑稳定性及挡墙稳定性问题突出等技术难题，技术难度大、风险高，限制了其工程应用。

重庆武隆仙女山机场南端西侧高填方区地形陡峻、岩体较破碎、地下水较丰富，覆盖型岩溶广泛发育，岩溶面积大、深度深，是典型的岩溶发育场地。受坡脚天然气管道限制，项目采用了最大高度为49.5 m（含岩溶混凝土换填高度）的超高重力式路堤墙方案，挡墙高度在国内外尚未见报道。为了解决深厚岩溶对高挡墙及高边坡稳定性的影响问题，通过物探、钻探及施工地质调查等方式详细查明了岩溶发育情况，通过数值模拟分析了不同岩溶换填深度下边坡破坏模式、边坡及挡墙稳定性、挡墙应力及变形等，确定了合理的岩溶换填深度。目前武隆机场已通航3年多，高挡墙及高边坡运行状态良好。理论及实践表明，采用局部换填方案改善了岩溶地基不均匀性，降低了挡墙应力集中效应，大幅提高了挡墙及边坡稳定性，解决了超高重力式挡墙在岩溶发育场地中的应用难点。研究成果对于高填方工程项目规划、高挡墙设计及施工、岩溶发育场地地基处理具有较大的参考价值。

1. 工程概况

1.1 机场概况

武隆机场飞行区等级为4C，跑道长2800 m，机场标高为1743.69 m。机场土石方填方量约21.51×10⁶ m³，挖方量约19.40×10⁶ m³，最大垂直填方高度约65 m，填方边坡最大高度约107 m，是典型的高填方机场。

机场位于大娄山期二级剥夷面上，总体地势南高北低，东高西低。南端和西侧紧靠台地边缘，为中等起伏台地地貌。受流水深切割的影响，沟谷两侧坡度较大，地形陡峻。研究区位于机场跑道南端西侧，为一条“V”字型冲沟上（图1），纵向平均坡度约25°，两侧沟壁坡度40°～75°，地形条件复杂。边坡坡顶垂直填方高度最大约57 m，在距离坡顶约127 m处有一条大致与跑道平行的天然气管线，边坡不具备放坡和反压条件，高填方边坡稳定性问题非常突出。经综合比选，采用超高重力式挡墙加高路堤方案。

图 1 研究区地形地貌全景图

Figure 1. Panoramic view of the study area's topography

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1.2 高边坡概况

重力式挡墙地面以上最大净高为41.2 m，总高度最大49.5 m（含岩溶换填），墙身呈折线形，见图2（a），顶宽2.0 m，南侧墙体长58.8 m，北侧长73.3 m，采用C25混凝土结构。挡墙结构与衡重式挡墙类似，但中下部因地制宜，根据各处地形、基岩及岩溶情况不断变化，结构形式较为复杂。由于挡墙高度大，对地基承载力及均匀性要求高，对岩溶充填物采用开挖一定深度后回填混凝土，并与墙身整体浇筑的地基处理方案。挡墙中部设一道排水廊道和一排泄水孔。

图 2 工程总平面图及典型工程地质剖面图

Figure 2. General plan and typical geological profile of the engineering

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挡墙后高填方边坡最高为65.71 m，按1∶1.4的坡比自然放坡，每15 m高设置2 m宽马道，见图2（b）。路堤范围内清除覆盖层至强风化基岩，再开挖抗滑台阶提高基覆界面强度。填料采用中风化灰岩或硅质岩破碎料。填筑区周边及墙趾处设截排水沟，马道上设一道混凝土种植槽兼做截水沟。

2. 工程地质条件

2.1 地层岩性

武隆机场区域上位于仙女山背斜北西翼，岩层呈单斜状，走向北东-南西，缓倾北西，倾向260°～300°，倾角5°～12°。场区基岩为二叠系上统吴家坪组，以灰岩和硅质岩为主，薄−中厚层，发育N35°E和N55°W两组陡倾节理，倾角多在70°以上。根据勘察资料及现场调查，强风化灰岩和硅质岩体结构破碎，中风化岩体结构为破碎−较破碎。

研究区基岩以灰岩和硅质岩为主，局部可见黏土岩夹层，产状为290°∠8°，薄−中厚层，强风化厚约5 m，岩体破碎，岩块强度高。硅质岩和黏土岩等相对隔水层出露地带发育股状流水，流量随季节变化较大，有利于岩溶发育^{[16, 22]}。场区覆盖层厚0～11.3 m，包括耕植土、粉质黏土、碎石土以及天然气管线施工形成的素填土，性质差，见图2（b）。

2.2 岩溶发育情况

挡墙基础范围发现有5处岩溶，其中1号和2号岩溶体积很小，基础开挖即可清除，对工程无影响。3—5号岩溶位于挡墙基础中部，上部被第四系土覆盖，为覆盖型岩溶。岩溶整体形态呈椭圆形，尺寸分别为42 m×15 m、19 m×15 m、54 m×21 m，投影面积分别为463 m²、171 m²、802 m²，岩溶占挡墙基础面积的45%以上，见图2（a）。

为了查明岩溶形态及深度，对3—5号开展了钻探和物探，钻孔及物探典型剖面位置见图2（a）。3号岩溶区钻孔深17 m，上部9.1 m为岩溶充填物，其下为破碎灰岩；4号岩溶区钻孔深27.5 m，表层3.2 m为充填物，3.2～9.1 m为破碎灰岩，9.1～27.5 m为充填物，钻探未探明岩溶基底；5号岩溶区设置2个钻孔，30 m深钻孔全为充填物，未探明岩溶基底，32 m深钻孔上部27.6 m为充填物，其下为基岩；各岩溶充填物均为浅黄色含砂碎石土，含水量高，强度较低。物探结果综合分析表明（图3），上述3个岩溶形状不规则，底部埋深预计超过35 m，深部有岩溶通道互相连接。

图 3 高密度电法剖面图

Figure 3. Profiles determined by high-density electrical technique

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现场施工中开挖发现（图4），岩溶发育区覆盖层较厚，基岩埋深5～9 m。岩溶类型主要为溶槽、溶沟及溶蚀裂隙，呈长条形展布，各岩溶通过溶蚀裂隙、溶洞等通道连接。溶沟、溶槽最大深度超过20 m，侧壁近直立，溶腔尺寸随深度增加呈现逐渐减小趋势。岩溶沟槽长轴大致呈N30°E方向，与场区陡倾节理方向基本一致，岩溶受岩体结构面控制。溶蚀沟槽内填充含水量高的浅黄色含砂碎石土，岩溶之间基岩顶部结构破碎。

图 4 挡墙基础岩溶开挖图

Figure 4. Excavation pictures of the karst for foundation of the retaining wall

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3. 理论分析

3.1 计算方法

3.1.1 计算软件及参数

本工程地质结构复杂，挡墙结构与普通重力式挡墙有明显不同，填料、基岩及其结构面、挡墙结构及材料、岩溶、不同材料界面特性等都对边坡及挡墙稳定性产生影响，传统的极限平衡法难以准确确定破坏模式及稳定状态，需要开展数值模拟。

数值模拟采用Optum G2软件，是一款集极限分析和有限元分析于一体的岩土分析软件，具有操作简单、网格自动化程度高、支持有限元极限分析、收敛性强等特点，在复杂地质条件及复杂支挡结构破坏模式分析、可靠度计算等方面具有优势^[23]。Optum G2可考虑基岩层面、不同材料接触面（包括挡墙与基岩、岩溶充填土、填料，基岩与填料等）力学性质，是本工程理想的分析软件。LI等^[24]、YANG等^[25]分别分析了武隆机场填料、填料与基岩界面力学特性，相关参数参照选取；基岩及结构面参数按经验参考《工程岩体分级标准》^[26]选取，岩溶充填物参数选自勘察报告；挡墙与不同材料接触面参数参照GEO软件帮助文档选取；各计算参数见表1。

表 1 数值模拟计算参数

Table 1. Summary of simulation model parameters

岩土性质	本构模型	容重/（kN·m⁻³）	黏聚力/kPa	内摩擦角/（°）	弹性模量/MPa	泊松比
填料	摩尔库伦	22.5	50	35	60	0.30
高挡墙	线弹性	24.0	−	−	28000	0.20
岩溶充填物	摩尔库伦	18.2	20	13	10	0.32
灰岩	摩尔库伦	26.5	200	40	10000	0.25
灰岩层面	摩尔库伦	−	60	25	−	−
节理面	摩尔库伦	−	20	35	−	−
挡墙-灰岩接触面	摩尔库伦	−	0	35	−	−
挡墙-填料接触面	摩尔库伦	−	0	30	−	−
挡墙-岩溶充填物接触面	摩尔库伦	−	0	15	−	−
填料-灰岩接触面	摩尔库伦	−	45	35	−	−

下载: 导出CSV

| 显示表格

3.1.2 计算剖面及分析内容

根据工程实际情况，选取岩溶发育范围大、宽度宽（总宽约40 m）、岩溶深度深（最深约35 m）、挡墙总高度最高（含岩溶换填的总高度为49.5 m）、溶沟溶槽发育（共计4条）的剖面进行计算，详见图2（b）及图5。填筑体底部覆盖层需全部清除，因此按照第四系土清除后的原地面进行建模。模型设置位移边界条件，即底部为完全固定边，两侧为半固定边（水平方向固定、竖向可自由变形）。

图 5 挡墙结构及岩溶处理示意图（单位：m）

Figure 5. Diagram of retaining wall structure and karst treatment (unit: m)

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数值模拟内容包括不同岩溶换填深度（图5）下边坡破坏模式、边坡整体稳定性、应力及变形，并提取挡墙墙背土压力计算挡墙稳定性。需要特别注意的是，填土为粗粒土，沉降大部分在施工过程中完成；采用的岩土本构模型属于理想弹塑性模型，不能考虑蠕变效应，因此填筑体变形计算结果仅供参考。

3.1.3 挡墙稳定性计算

当岩溶换填深度较大时，由于换填深度范围内回填的混凝土与挡墙一起整体浇筑，受溶槽间岩桥的阻挡（图5），挡墙不具备沿基底发生滑移的条件（沿填筑体及挡墙底可能发生的深部抗滑稳定性在整体稳定性中考虑），因此不需要验算挡墙抗滑移稳定性。

挡墙高度高，承受的土压力大，需要验算抗倾覆稳定性。墙背由5个面组成，第i面承担的土压力为 $P_{i}$ （图5）， $P_{i}$ 到挡墙墙趾的水平、竖向距离为 $x_{i}$ 、 $y_{i}$ 。挡墙自重为G，其到挡墙墙趾的水平、竖向距离为 $x_{G}$ 、 $y_{G}$ ，则挡墙抗倾覆稳定性按式（1）计算：

K = \frac{G x_{G} + \sum P_{i y} x_{i}}{\sum P_{i x} y_{i}}

(1)

3.2 破坏模式及整体稳定性

经典塑性力学上下限解可在不引入任何假定的前提下，通过上下限逼近边坡安全系数真实解^[27]。通过对模型网格单元细分和基于剪切耗散的自适应加密，可较为准确地确定边坡破坏模式和整体安全系数。针对不同的岩溶换填深度（0～31 m）分别进行了模拟和分析。

3.2.1 破坏模式

当岩溶换填深度较浅时，边坡潜在破坏面由圆弧和多段折线组成，破坏模式较为复杂。圆弧面位于填筑体内部，折线面由基岩主动破裂面、基岩层面、挡墙底边（即挡墙与岩溶充填物之间界面）以及挡墙前被动破裂面组成，墙前被动区、挡墙底边界、基岩层面相对较为薄弱见图6（a）和图6（c）。此外，墙背下卸荷台边缘处存在第二破裂面，与已有研究一致^[28]。

图 6 不同换填深度下边坡破坏模式及整体稳定性

Figure 6. Slope failure modes and overall stability under different replacement depths

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当岩溶换填深度大时，边坡潜在破坏面为填筑体内部的圆弧面见图6（b），破坏模式较为简单。岩溶换填深度的增加可有效消除基岩层面、岩溶等薄弱带存在的安全隐患，有利于边坡稳定性。经计算，当换填深度为15 m时，下限解对应的破坏模式为圆弧和多段折线组成，上限解为圆弧面，换填深度大于15 m时上下限解对应的破坏面均为沿着填筑体内的圆弧面。

3.2.2 整体稳定性

有限元上下限解计算表明，当换填深度低于15 m时，随着岩溶换填深度的增加，边坡整体安全系数大致呈线性增加；换填深度大于15 m时，安全系数不再变化，见图6（d）。上述结果与破坏模式分析结果一致，即换填深度大于15 m时，边坡最危险滑面为墙后填筑体内部的圆弧面，与挡墙无关，因此安全系数不会变化。

当换填深度不小于7 m时，边坡安全系数上下限解均大于1.35，可满足民航规范要求^[29]，因此岩溶换填深度不应小于7 m。

3.3 应力应变分析

采用弹塑性模型对边坡及挡墙应力进行了有限元分析（应力以拉为正、压为负），典型换填深度下的应力及塑性应变结果见图7所示，关键点（位置见图5）应力随换填深度的变化规律见图8（a）。

图 7 挡墙应力及塑性应变等值线图（应力单位：kPa）

Figure 7. Contour maps of the retaining wall stresses and plastic strains (stress unit: kPa)

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图 8 换填深度与关键点应力及变形关系曲线

Figure 8. Relationship curves between replacement depths and stresses/deformations of key points

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面坡坡脚处（A3点）是挡墙压应力的主要集中点，见图7（a）左、图7（b）左，随着换填深度的增加最大压应力逐渐减小。换填深度小于10 m时，压应力降低迅速；大于10 m时呈缓慢下降趋势。换填深度大于5 m时，最大压应力小于20 MPa，混凝土强度满足要求。

换填深度浅时，拉应力的主要集中点在挡墙基底溶槽之间的基岩接触区域见图7（a）中。由于岩溶充填物强度低，能承受的荷载很小，挡墙基底受力特点类似于多点竖向固定的简支梁，简支点需承受较大的弯拉应力。从体积塑性应变图也可看出，岩溶之间的基岩顶部出现大片塑性变形区域，与挡墙受力特点一致，见图7（a）右。当换填深度较大时，挡墙基础埋深大、与基岩接触面积大，应力通过基岩扩散后，挡墙底附加应力小，其受力与普通衡重式挡墙类似，因此拉应力集中点出现在卸荷台转角处，见图7（b）中。

挡墙换填深度与上、下卸荷台（A1、A2处）小主应力关系曲线可知，见图8（a），随换填深度增加卸荷台拉应力呈现增加趋势。这是由于随换填深度增加挡墙自重加大，限制了土体变形，土压力逐渐增加所致。经计算，换填深度大于7 m后，上卸荷台拉应力趋于稳定，稳定值约1.86 MPa，C25混凝土抗拉强度满足要求。

岩溶之间的基岩（A4）应力分析表明，随换填深度增加其应力逐渐减小，见图7及图8（a），有利于地基稳定性。

体积塑性应变计算表明，岩溶换填深度浅时，地基发生大面积塑性应变，见图7（a）右，地基稳定性差。换填深度加大后，仅在局部尖角处出现塑性变形，见图7（b）右。

3.4 变形分析

挡墙水平位移、边坡坡顶变形与换填深度的关系见图8（b）。随换填深度增加，挡墙水平位移、坡顶变形均逐渐减小，与经验及应力分析结果一致。当换填深度大于7 m时，挡墙及坡顶水平位移、坡顶竖向位移趋于稳定，稳定值分别约为6 mm、20 cm、50 cm。

3.5 土压力及挡墙稳定性

挡墙及地质条件复杂，采用有限元计算挡墙土压力。由于换填深度增加导致挡墙自重增加，加之埋深加大后地基水平抗力增加，挡墙水平位移逐渐减小，限制了土体变形，因此墙背与填土接触面的土压力整体呈现增加趋势，见图9（a）。当换填深度不小于7 m时，随换填深度增加，挡墙位移趋于稳定，见图8（b），因此土压力也趋于稳定，见图9（a）。

图 9 换填深度与挡墙受力及挡墙稳定性关系曲线

Figure 9. Relationship curves between replacement depths and retaining wall forces and stability

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P₅为墙背与基岩接触面压力，当不换填时挡墙水平位移很大（约36 cm），主要受力点位于挡墙中前缘，岩石压力较小；当换填深度较小时，挡墙水平位移大幅降低，由于岩溶充填物能承受荷载小，P₅所在面作为支撑面承担较大的压力，因此P₅呈现增加趋势；随着换填深度进一步增加，岩溶侧壁支撑作用逐渐加大，岩石压力逐渐减小，因此P₅随后呈减小趋势。

根据土压力计算成果，对挡墙进行了抗倾覆稳定性计算，见图9（b）。由图可知，挡墙稳定性随换填深度增加呈现先减少后增加趋势。岩溶不换填时，挡墙水平位移大，土压力小，因此抗倾覆稳定性较大；换填深度小幅增加后，挡墙水平位移大幅降低，土压力增加较快，因此挡墙稳定性降低；换填深度进一步增加后，挡墙水平位移及土压力趋于稳定，但挡墙自重逐步增加，因此抗倾覆稳定性逐渐增加。经计算，挡墙抗倾覆稳定性均大于1.5，满足规范要求^[7]，抗倾覆稳定性不是控制性因素。

此外，随换填深度的增加，挡墙基础埋深加大，重心高度（图5中y_G）逐渐降低，降低幅度呈先快后慢的趋势，见图9（b）。降低重心高度可进一步提高挡墙基础受力的均匀性，提高挡墙稳定性，降低偏心荷载对挡墙的不利影响。

4. 岩溶处理方案及实施效果

4.1 岩溶处理方案

根据理论计算，岩溶换填深度不小于7 m时，挡墙变形较小，边坡整体安全系数、挡墙抗倾覆稳定性、挡墙及地基强度均能满足规范要求，因此岩溶换填深度不宜小于7 m。

考虑到岩溶地基的不确定性，按照换填深度不低于10 m进行控制。当岩溶深度低于10 m时开挖至岩溶槽底，大于10 m时开挖10～20 m，岩溶上下尺寸变化小时开挖深度取大值。开挖至设计标高后，若底部仍存在充填物应灌浆处理以提高承载力。考虑到基岩岩体较破碎，对挡墙基础固结灌浆、岩溶边壁及基础设短锚钉的构造加强措施，锚钉与墙身连为一体。岩溶区域底部设置3 m厚底板，配双层钢筋网，进一步增加基础整体性。考虑到挡墙转角处存在明显的应力集中，特别是墙背卸荷台存在拉应力集中，在墙面附近配置钢筋，并在转角处对配筋适当加强。

4.2 施工过程

项目从2018年1月初开始施工，2019年5月中旬挡墙基础开挖与岩溶处理（含岩溶混凝土回填）基本完成。挡墙上部结构于2019年6月13日开始施工，2020年6月12日完成全部混凝土浇筑。墙身混凝土浇筑过程中，墙后土石方也逐步回填，2020年6月29日，墙后高填方边坡回填完成。

4.3 变形监测及运行情况

挡墙修建完成后，在墙顶布置了12个变形监测点，在填方边坡坡面布置了3个监测剖面共计8个监测点。此处选取边坡高度最高的BW04—BW06剖面及挡墙变形较大的BDW07点作为代表进行分析，各点位置如图10（a）所示。边坡监测从2020年6月16日开始，至2020年9月9日结束；高挡墙有三个监测点于2020年6月16日开始监测，其余开始于2020年7月5日，至2020年9月9日结束；各点变形监测成果如图10（b）所示。

图 10 监测点位置图及其变形时程曲线

Figure 10. Map of monitoring point locations and their deformation time-history curves

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监测结果表明：（1）在高填方边坡施工过程中，边坡变形增长较快；填筑体施工完成后，边坡变形较小，变形曲线很快趋于收敛，表明填筑体固结在填筑完成后很快完成。（2）填筑体最大水平位移约19.4 mm，最大沉降量约12.7 mm，填筑体施工完成后水平及竖向位移最大值均不大于4 mm，变形量及变形速率很小，边坡稳定性良好。（3）填筑体施工完成后，BDW07水平位移最大值约为3.3 mm，变形曲线收敛良好，高挡墙稳定性良好；挡墙变形有轻微的上下波动，预计是不同时间温差导致，与已有研究一致^[11]。（4）高挡墙所有8个变形监测点数据表明，挡墙最大水平位移为3.3 mm，最大竖向位移为3.9 mm，与数值模拟结果基本吻合。

目前机场已通航3 a，在此期间武隆机场对高挡墙区域进行了持续的现场巡查，未见任何不良迹象，高边坡及高挡墙状态良好。

5. 结论

（1）高挡墙范围内广泛发育覆盖型岩溶，面积占挡墙基础的45%以上，以溶槽、溶沟及溶蚀裂隙为主，长轴与场区陡倾结构面方向基本一致。岩溶最大深度大于30 m，全填充，侧壁陡倾，基岩地层顺倾、岩体较破碎，地基极不均匀，高挡墙及高边坡稳定性问题极为突出。根据工程实际采用超高重力式路堤墙及岩溶地基局部混凝土换填方案，可有效解决项目重大工程技术难题。

（2）岩溶处理深度浅时，边坡潜在破坏面由填筑体内部的圆弧面、岩体主动破裂面、墙底与岩溶充填物的接触面、基岩层面及墙前被动破坏面组成，且墙后出现第二破裂面，破坏模式复杂。处理深度大于15 m时，边坡潜在破坏面为墙后填筑体内的圆弧面，破坏模式简单。

（3）岩溶处理深度不小于7 m时，随换填深度的增加，墙背土压力、挡墙及填土变形、卸荷台拉应力及面墙墙脚压应力均趋于稳定，边坡整体安全系数满足规范要求，挡墙及地基应力不超材料强度，因此建议岩溶换填深度不小于7 m。

（4）当岩溶换填深度较大时，岩溶换填混凝土、岩溶间基岩与高挡墙形成统一的整体，极大提高了边坡及挡墙稳定性，实现了岩溶地基溶沟溶槽的合理化利用及不良地质的有效防治。

（5）工程监测显示，填筑体施工完成后边坡及高挡墙水平及竖向位移最大值均小于4 mm，变形曲线迅速收敛。监测及运营实践表明，边坡及挡墙稳定状态良好，岩溶局部换填方案可有效解决超高重力式挡墙在岩溶发育场地中的应用难点。

图 1 考虑气候变化的降雨作用下边坡可靠度评估框架（改自He等^[33]）

Figure 1. Framework for reliability assessment of rainfall-triggered landslides considering climate change (adapted from He et al. ^[33])

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图 2 考虑降雨模式及岩土性质不确定性的边坡易损性评估框架示意图（改自He等^[32]）

Figure 2. Framework for slope fragility assessment considering uncertainties in rainfall patterns and geotechnical properties (adapted from He et al. ^[32])

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图 3 基于机器学习的降雨型滑坡危险性评估框架示意图（改自文献^{[91 − 92]}）

Figure 3. Framework for rainfall-induced landslide hazard assessment based on machine learning (adapted from references ^{[91 − 92]})

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0. 引言
1. 工程概况
1.1 机场概况
1.2 高边坡概况
2. 工程地质条件
2.1 地层岩性
2.2 岩溶发育情况
3. 理论分析
3.1 计算方法
3.1.1 计算软件及参数
3.1.2 计算剖面及分析内容
3.1.3 挡墙稳定性计算
3.2 破坏模式及整体稳定性
3.2.1 破坏模式
3.2.2 整体稳定性
3.3 应力应变分析
3.4 变形分析
3.5 土压力及挡墙稳定性
4. 岩溶处理方案及实施效果
4.1 岩溶处理方案
4.2 施工过程
4.3 变形监测及运行情况
5. 结论

0. 引言
1. 工程概况
1.1 机场概况
1.2 高边坡概况
2. 工程地质条件
2.1 地层岩性
2.2 岩溶发育情况
3. 理论分析
3.1 计算方法
3.1.1 计算软件及参数
3.1.2 计算剖面及分析内容
3.1.3 挡墙稳定性计算
3.2 破坏模式及整体稳定性
3.2.1 破坏模式
3.2.2 整体稳定性
3.3 应力应变分析
3.4 变形分析
3.5 土压力及挡墙稳定性
4. 岩溶处理方案及实施效果
4.1 岩溶处理方案
4.2 施工过程
4.3 变形监测及运行情况
5. 结论

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气候变化背景下降雨滑坡风险评估研究进展

作者简介: 黄 雨（1973—），男，江苏南京人，工学博士，教授，主要从事工程地质教学与科研工作。E-mail：yhuang@tongji.edu.cn

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