ISSN 1003-8035 CN 11-2852/P

    气候变化背景下降雨滑坡风险评估研究进展

    Research progress on rainfall-triggered landslide risk assessment under the context of climate change

    • 摘要: 随着全球气候变化的加剧,极端降雨事件日益频繁,导致降雨型滑坡灾害频发,造成了巨大的人员伤亡与经济损失。文章系统回顾了气候变化背景下降雨型滑坡风险评估的研究进展,重点讨论了以下三个关键方面:(1)考虑气候变化的降雨作用下边坡可靠度评估;(2)考虑降雨模式不确定性的边坡易损性评估;(3)基于机器学习方法的降雨型滑坡危险性评估。在此基础上,文章进一步分析了气候变化背景下降雨型滑坡风险评估所面临的多维挑战,包括气候变化带来的不确定性、高时空分辨率地质气象数据缺乏以及模型跨区域的适应性等。最后,文章从精细的地质调查、多因素孕灾机理、基于韧性的风险评估等角度,展望了实现降雨型滑坡灾害韧性防灾的未来研究方向。研究旨在为降雨型滑坡灾害的防灾减灾工作提供理论支持和方法参考,促进滑坡灾害风险管理的科学化与精细化发展。

       

      Abstract: With the intensification of global climate change, extreme rainfall events have become increasingly frequent, leading to recurrent rainfall-triggered landslides and causing significant casualties and economic losses. With the context of climate change, this study systematically reviews the research progress on advancements in probabilistic risk assessment of rainfall-triggered landslides, focusing on three key aspects: (1) slope reliability assessment under rainfall conditions considering climate change; (2) vulnerability assessment of slopes considering the uncertainty of rainfall patterns; and (3) rainfall-induced landslide hazard assessment based on machine learning methods. On this basis, this study further analyzes the multidimensional challenges faced by rainfall-triggered landslide risk assessment under climate change, including uncertainties associated with climate change, the lack of high spatio-temporal resolution geological and meteorological data, and the adaptability of models across different regions. Finally, from the perspectives of detailed geological surveys, multi-factor disaster gestation mechanisms, this study looks towards future research directions for enhancing resilience in rainfall-induced landslide disaster prevention, from landslide mechanisms under multiple factors, to resilience-based risk assessment. This study aims to provide theoretical support and methodological references for the disaster prevention and mitigation work of rainfall-triggered landslides, promoting the scientific, systematic, and refined development of landslide risk management.

       

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