ISSN 1003-8035 CN 11-2852/P

    全球降水观测数据支持下的不同降雨工况地质灾害危险性评价研究以连平县绣缎镇为例

    Hazard assessment of geological disasters under different rainfall scenarios based on Global Precipitation Measurement: A case study of Xiudian, Lianping County

    • 摘要: 广东粤东地区地貌类型复杂、雨量充沛,强降雨期间极易引发滑坡等地质灾害,山区人民生命财产与公共设施等面临严峻的安全形势。本文以连平县绣缎镇为研究区,利用斜坡单元和信息量模型,构建绣缎镇地质灾害易发性评价体系,ROC曲线显示易发性评价结果精度AUC值达0.829。同时根据全球降水观测计划的IMERG降水数据,获取绣缎镇历史降雨空间分布,在绣缎镇地质灾发育特征及易发性评价结果的基础上开展基于极值假设的24小时累计雨量100 mm、250 mm和72小时累计最大降雨量(前24小时雨量*1+前24~48小时雨量*0.81+前48~72小时雨量*0.64)三种工况下地质灾害危险性评价。通过对比不同降雨条件下的地质灾害危险性评价结果,显示结果与现场实际调查情况基本吻合,准确度较为可信。不同强度的降雨对地质灾害精准防控及避险具有重要指导方向。

       

      Abstract: Eastern Guangdong Province is characterized by complex geomorphology and abundant precipitation, where heavy rainfall frequently trigger landslide and other geological hazards, posing severe threats to local communities and infrastructure. This study establishes a landslide susceptibility evaluation system for Xiuduan Town, Lianping County, using slope unit segmentation and the information value model. ROC curve validation demonstrates high prediction accuracy with an AUC value of 0.829. Historical rainfall spatial patterns are reconstructed using IMERG precipitation data from the Global Precipitation Measurement mission. Based on the regional geological vulnerability and susceptibility assessment results, scenario-based hazard evaluation is conducted under three rainfall conditions: 24-hour cumulative rainfall (100 mm, 250 mm) and 72-hour maximum cumulative rainfall, calculated using an empirical attenuation formula (first 24 h × 1 + second 24 h × 0.81 + third 24 h × 0.64). Hazard zoning under these rainfall scenarios integrates regional geological vulnerability and rainfall-triggering mechanisms. Comparative analysis shows that the evaluation results correspond well with field investigations, indicating reliable accuracy. The proposed methodology advances quantitative risk assessment for rainfall-induced landslides in complex terrain, offering technical references for early warning systems and disaster preparedness in similar geological settings. Rainfall of varying intensities provides critical guidance for the precision prevention and control of geological disasters and risk avoidance.

       

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