ISSN 1003-8035 CN 11-2852/P

    深圳市地面坍塌灾害分布规律及灾变机理分析

    Analysis of the distribution pattern and catastrophic mechanism of ground collapse disasters in Shenzhen

    • 摘要: 【目的】近年来,深圳市地面坍塌灾害事故频发,本研究旨在查明深圳市地面坍塌灾害分布规律及灾变机理,为地面坍塌灾害防治提供理论支撑。【方法】研究以2015-2024年地面坍塌事故为研究对象,运用数理统计和GIS空间分析方法,揭示了地面坍塌的时空演化规律、关键致灾因子空间关联特征;通过物理模型试验,重点研究了管道渗漏诱发渗流侵蚀-土体变形耦合作用下地面坍塌的灾变机理。【结果】结果表明,地面坍塌灾害与降雨量变化存在正相关性,年度周期内呈单峰型波动;坍塌灾害地域上呈现显著的东西分异特征,灾害发生概率与道路密度、地铁聚集度呈正相关关系。重力流管道沙漏型地面坍塌的灾变过程主要分为初始、稳定和渗流三个阶段,土体侵蚀变形产生的空洞扩展规律与砂土流失变化一致;下沉型地面坍塌灾变过程无明显阶段性。【结论】研究揭示了深圳市地面坍塌灾害的时空演化规律与关键致灾机制,相关研究成果可为城市地面坍塌风险识别及防控提供科学依据。

       

      Abstract: 【Objective】In recent years, Shenzhen has experienced frequent ground collapse events. This study aims to clarify the spatial distribution patterns and catastrophic mechanisms of ground collapse disasters in the city, thereby providing theoretical support for effective prevention mitigation. 【Methods】Ground collapse incidents from 2015 to 2024 were examined using mathematical statistics and GIS-based spatial analysis to reveal the spatio-temporal evolution patterns and spatial associations of key causative factors. In additiona, physical model experiments were conducted to investigate the catastrophic mechanism of ground collapse induced by the coupled effects of seepage erosion and soil deformation triggered by pipeline leakage. 【Results】The results show that the occurrence of ground collapse is positively correlated with rainfall variations and exhibit a single-peak fluctuation pattern within an annual cycle. Spatially, the disasters demonstrate a pronounced east-west differentiation, and their occurrence probability is positively associated with road density and subway network concentration. The disaster process of hourglass type ground collapse in unpressurized gravity flow pipelines primarily consists of three stages: initial, stable, and seepage. The expansion of subsurface voids caused by soil erosion and deformation aligns with the changes in sand loss. In contract, sinking-type collapses induced by pressurized pipelines in clay layers do not present distinct evolutionary stages. 【Conclusion】This study reveals the spatiotemporal evolution patterns and key disaster mechanisms of ground collapse disasters in Shenzhen. The findings provide a scientific basis for urban ground collapse risk identification and for developing targeted prevention and control strategies.

       

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