Quantitative risk assessment and its application for individual landslide disaster based on slope failure probability
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摘要:
对潜在滑坡灾害实施风险评价至关重要，但在实际工程中单体滑坡灾害风险评价仍然以定性评价方法为主，由危险性和损失通过风险矩阵得到定性风险等级，存在风险标准多重性和不连续性的问题，不便于在实际工程中对风险大小进行比较并实施分类处置，还可能导致风险评价结果出现误差，误导风险处置。为此，运用概率模型定量描述滑坡灾害的稳定性，同时考虑承灾体的损失大小，得到单体滑坡灾害风险定量评价指标，提出了滑坡灾害风险曲面及风险等值线的概念，并开发相应的评估计算软件，形成了滑坡灾害风险定量评价方法，消除了传统滑坡风险矩阵带来的风险标准多重性和不连续性，提高了评估的准确性。通过对重庆市奉节县6个单体滑坡进行风险定量评价，验证了所提方法的正确性和可靠性，为滑坡灾害风险评价提供了新的途径。
Abstract:Effective risk assessment of potential landslide disasters is crucial for informed decision-making in engineering projects. In practical engineering, the risk assessment of individual landslide disasters still relies mainly on qualitative evaluation methods. The qualitative risk level is obtained through the risk matrix based on danger and loss, which poses problems of multiple and discontinuous risk standards. This makes it difficult to compare and classify risks in actual engineering, and may also lead to errors in risk assessment results, misleading risk management. To address these issues, a probability model is employed to quantitatively describe the stability of landslide disasters, considering the size of losses to the element at risk. A quantified risk index for individual landslide disasters is obtained, introducing the concept of landslide disaster risk surface and risk contour. Corresponding evaluation and calculation software are developed to form a quantified risk assessment method for landslide disasters, eliminating the multiplicity and discontinuity of risk standards brought about by traditional landslide risk matrices. The accuracy of the evaluation is improved. By conducting quantitative risk assessment on six individual landslides in Fengjie County, Chongqing, the correctness and reliability of the quantitative risk assessment method were verified, providing a new approach for landslide disaster risk assessment.
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图 1 基于滑坡定性风险评价的风险矩阵
Figure 1. Risk matrix based on qualitative landslide risk assessment
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图 2 半定量风险水平与控制因素关系图
Figure 2. Spatial relationship diagram between semi-empirical risk levels and controlling factors
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图 4 不同稳定系数（Fs）均值和变异系数（n）情况下的滑坡失稳概率图
Figure 4. Probability of landslide instability under various mean stability coefficient (Fs) and variation coefficient (n)
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图 5 失稳概率随稳定系数均值和变异系数变化的趋势面
Figure 5. Trend surface of probability of instability with changes in the mean of Fs and n
稳定系数（Fs） Fs<1.00 1.00≤Fs<1.05 1.05≤Fs<1.15 1.15≤Fs 稳定状态 不稳定 欠稳定 基本稳定 稳定 
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保护等级 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ EL/（万元） EL≥ 5000 5000 >EL≥500EL<500 TP TP≥500 500>TP≥100 TP<100 PI 非常重要 重要 一般 EL—经济损失；TP—受威胁者；PI—公共基础设施；
只要满足一个条件即可以定义为相应的保护等级
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表 3 受威胁人员数量引起的风险水平的变化
Table 3 Variations in risk levels caused by the number of endangered individuals
稳定系数：Fs=1.04 稳定状态：欠稳定 TP：99 等级：Ⅲ 风险水平：低 TP：101 等级：Ⅱ 风险水平：中等 TP：499 等级：Ⅱ 风险水平：中等 TP：501 等级：Ⅰ 风险水平：高
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表 4 经济损失引起的风险水平的变化
Table 4 Variations in risk levels caused by the number of endangered individuals
稳定系数： Fs=1.04 稳定状态：欠稳定 EL（万元）： 490 等级：Ⅲ 风险水平：低 EL（万元）： 510 等级：Ⅱ 风险水平：中等 EL（万元）： 4990 等级：Ⅱ 风险水平：中等 EL（万元）： 5010 等级：Ⅰ 风险水平：高
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表 5 失稳概率随稳定系数的变化范围（n=0.2）
Table 5 Variation range of failure probability with stability factor Fs (n=0.2)
Fs 0.95 1.00 1.05 1.15 P/% 60.38 50.00 40.59 25.71
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表 7 失稳概率随变异系数的变化范围（Fs=1.20）
Table 7 Variation range of failure probability with coefficient of variation n (Fs=1.20)
n 0.10 0.20 0.30 P/% 4.78 20.24 28.88
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表 6 失稳概率随变异系数的变化范围（Fs=0.95）
Table 6 Variation range of failure probability with coefficient of variation n (Fs=0.95)
n 0.10 0.20 0.30 P/% 70.05 60.38 56.92
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表 8 重庆市奉节县6个滑坡的TP风险水平
Table 8 Ranking of TP risk for 6 landslides in Fengjie County, Chongqing
滑坡名称 分析状态 TP等级 稳定状态 失稳概率/% TP风险等级 TP风险指数 TP 风险排名 车家坝滑坡 大雨 Ⅰ 1.075
基本稳定28.52 高风险 1.589 1 火石梁滑坡 大雨 Ⅱ 1.013
欠稳定34.75 中风险 0.753 2 万家坪滑坡 大雨 Ⅱ 1.037
欠稳定31.18 中风险 0.433 3 陈家沟滑坡 大雨
高水位Ⅱ 1.069
基本稳定29.16 中风险 0.412 4 放牛坪滑坡 大雨 Ⅱ 1.065
基本稳定29.34 中风险 0.299 5 老林沟滑坡 大雨 Ⅱ 1.356
稳定11.77 低风险 0.264 6
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表 9 重庆市奉节县6个滑坡的EL风险水平
Table 9 Ranking of EL risk for 6 landslides in Fengjie County, Chongqing
滑坡名称 分析状态 EL等级 稳定状态 失稳概率/% TP风险等级 EL风险指数 EL风险排名 车家坝滑坡 大雨 Ⅰ 1.075
基本稳定28.52 高风险 1.142 1 陈家沟滑坡 大雨
高水位Ⅱ 1.069
基本稳定29.16 中风险 1.091 2 火石梁滑坡 大雨 Ⅱ 1.013
欠稳定34.75 中风险 0.691 3 万家坪滑坡 大雨 Ⅱ 1.037
欠稳定31.18 中风险 0.570 4 放牛坪滑坡 大雨 Ⅱ 1.065
基本稳定29.34 中风险 0.293 5 老林沟滑坡 大雨 Ⅱ 1.356
稳定11.77 低风险 0.141 6
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