黄土地基震陷可靠度分析Kriging代理模型研究

胡长明; 张思梦; 钱家志; 张勇

doi:10.16031/j.cnki.issn.1003-8035.202306006

黄土地基震陷可靠度分析Kriging代理模型研究

1.
西安建筑科技大学土木工程学院，陕西西安　710055
2.
中国能源建设集团甘肃省电力设计院有限公司，甘肃兰州　730050
3.
西安建筑科技大学管理学院，陕西西安　710055

基金项目: 陕西省自然科学基础研究计划项目（2021JLM-52）

详细信息

作者简介:
胡长明（1963—），男，河南信阳人，教授、博士生导师，主要从事施工技术与管理方面的教学和科研工作。E-mail：hu.tm@163.com

通讯作者:
张思梦（1997—），女，山西晋城人，硕士研究生，研究方向为黄土震陷评价。E-mail：1042512639@qq.com

中图分类号: TU444
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出版历程
- 收稿日期: 2023-06-03
- 修回日期: 2023-12-28
- 录用日期: 2024-06-17
- 网络出版日期: 2024-07-01
- 刊出日期: 2024-12-24

Reliability analysis of seismic subsidence of loess foundation based on Kriging surrogate model

1.
College of Civil Engineering, Xi’an University of Architecture and Technology, Xi’an, Shaanxi　710055, China
2.
China Energy Construction Group, Gansu Electric Power Design Institute Co. Ltd., Lanzhou, Gansu　730050, China
3.
College of Management, Xi’an University of Architecture and Technology, Xi’an, Shaanxi　710055, China

摘要

摘要:
为评估黄土地基在发生地震期间出现的震陷安全水平，本文提出了一种基于Kriging代理模型的黄土地基震陷可靠度分析方法，采用拉丁超立方抽样（LHS）抽取随机变量的样本点，通过FLAC^3D有限差分软件建立黄土地基数值模型并计算所抽样本点对应的响应值作为建立Kriging代理模型所需的训练样本点，结合蒙特卡罗法计算黄土地基震陷的可靠度，并分析随机变量的变异性对震陷可靠度的影响。算例分析结果表明：提出的震陷可靠度计算方法相比传统的确定性计算方法能够合理地考虑土性参数的变异性，更加符合实际情况，具有更好的可靠性和适用性。黏聚力的变异系数对震陷最大可靠度的影响更为显著。
- Kriging代理模型 /
- 黄土地基 /
- 震陷 /
- 可靠度 /
- Monte Carlo
Abstract:
In order to evaluate the safety level of seismic subsidence of loess foundation during earthquakes, this paper proposes a reliability analysis method based on the Kriging surrogate model. The sample points of random variables are extracted based on Latin hypercube sampling (LHS). A numerical model of the loess foundation is established using FLAC^3D finite difference software, and response values corresponding to the sample point is calculated as the training sample point for establishing Kriging surrogate model. The reliability of seismic subsidence of loess foundation is calculated by Monte Carlo method, and the influence of variability of random variables on seismic subsidence reliability is analyzed. The results show that the proposed seismic subsidence reliability calculation method can reasonably consider the variability of soil parameters compared to traditional deterministic methods, making it more practical with better reliability and applicability. The variation coefficient of cohesion significantly affects the maximum reliability of seismic subsidence.
- Kriging surrogate model /
- loess foundation /
- seismic subsidence /
- reliability /
- Monte Carlo

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图 1 模型及自由场边界

Figure 1. Model and free-field boundary

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图 2 地震波时程曲线

Figure 2. Seismic wave time history curve and response spectrum curve

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图 3 不同参数的概率密度分布图

Figure 3. Probability density distribution plots of different parameters

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图 4 基于Kriging代理模型的震陷可靠度计算流程

Figure 4. Calculation process of seismic subsidence reliability based on the Kriging surrogate model

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图 5 可靠度分析获得的地基震陷最大可靠度

Figure 5. Maximum reliability index of foundation seismic subsidence obtained from reliability analysis

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图 6 可靠度分析获得的地基震陷的最小可靠度指标

Figure 6. Minimum reliability index of foundation seismic subsidence obtained from reliability analysis

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图 7 不同参数变异系数对震陷可靠度的影响规律

Figure 7. The influence of different parameter coefficient of variations on seismic subsidence reliability

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表 1 不同地震波及不同峰值加速度作用下地基震陷量

Table 1 Seismic subsidence of foundation under different seismic waves and peak accelerations.

峰值加速度/g	震陷量/cm
峰值加速度/g	地震波1	地震波2	地震波3
0.1	0.72	1.95	2.65
0.2	2.37	8.40	13.44
0.3	9.10	16.02	21.62
0.4	17.83	21.44	29.52
0.5	19.78	25.29	37.06
0.6	20.08	30.67	40.98
0.7	20.48	35.84	46.98

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表 2 分布假设检验结果

Table 2 Distribution hypothesis test results

检验参数	样本量	验证结果 $D_{max}$						可接受的临界值 $D_{n}^{α} / (α = 0.05)$
		正态分布		对数正态分布		威布尔分布
		结果	$D_{max}$	结果	$D_{max}$	结果	$D_{max}$
内摩擦角	24	√	0.180	√	0.223	√	0.093	0.273
黏聚力	24	√	0.099	√	0.125	√	0.102	0.273
压缩模量	24	√	0.094	√	0.146	√	0.164	0.273
密度	48	√	0.150	√	0.185	√	0.115	0.196

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表 3 不同地震波作用下地基震陷破坏概率

Table 3 Probability of foundation subsidence failure under different seismic wave effects

加速度/g	地震波1	地震波2	地震波3
0.1	0	0	0
0.2	0	0	0
0.3	0	0	0
0.4	0	0.072	0.116
0.5	0	0.17	0.378
0.6	0	0.232	0.704
0.7	0.002	0.264	0.888

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表 4 不同地震波作用下地基震陷完好概率

Table 4 Probability of intact seismic subsidence of foundation under different seismic wave effects

加速度/g	地震波1	地震波2	地震波3
0.1	0.946	0.854	0.842
0.2	0.392	0.094	0.832
0.3	0.238	0.004	0
0.4	0.01	0	0
0.5	0.018	0	0
0.6	0.012	0	0
0.7	0.002	0	0

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表 5 各参数变异系数工况组合表

Table 5 Combination table of variation coefficient for each parameter

工况	COV
工况	密度	弹性模量	黏聚力	摩擦角
1-1	0.01	0.3	0.2	0.3
1-2	0.05
1-3	0.1
1-4	0.15
1-5	0.2
2-1	0.05	0.05	0.2	0.3
2-2		0.1
2-3		0.2
2-4		0.3
2-5		0.4
3-1	0.05	0.3	0.05	0.3
3-2			0.1
3-3			0.2
3-4			0.3
3-5			0.4
4-1	0.05	0.3	0.2	0.1
4-2				0.2
4-3				0.3
4-4				0.4
4-5				0.5

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黄土地基震陷可靠度分析Kriging代理模型研究

作者简介:
胡长明（1963—），男，河南信阳人，教授、博士生导师，主要从事施工技术与管理方面的教学和科研工作。E-mail：hu.tm@163.com

通讯作者:
张思梦（1997—），女，山西晋城人，硕士研究生，研究方向为黄土震陷评价。E-mail：1042512639@qq.com

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Reliability analysis of seismic subsidence of loess foundation based on Kriging surrogate model

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友情链接：

黄土地基震陷可靠度分析Kriging代理模型研究

作者简介: 胡长明（1963—），男，河南信阳人，教授、博士生导师，主要从事施工技术与管理方面的教学和科研工作。E-mail：hu.tm@163.com

通讯作者: 张思梦（1997—），女，山西晋城人，硕士研究生，研究方向为黄土震陷评价。E-mail：1042512639@qq.com

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出版历程

Reliability analysis of seismic subsidence of loess foundation based on Kriging surrogate model

计量

出版历程

目录

友情链接：

作者简介:
胡长明（1963—），男，河南信阳人，教授、博士生导师，主要从事施工技术与管理方面的教学和科研工作。E-mail：hu.tm@163.com

通讯作者:
张思梦（1997—），女，山西晋城人，硕士研究生，研究方向为黄土震陷评价。E-mail：1042512639@qq.com