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基于数值模拟的群发性泥石流危险性评价

曹鹏 侯圣山 陈亮 冯振 王立朝 李昂 刘军友

曹鹏, 侯圣山, 陈亮, 冯振, 王立朝, 李昂, 刘军友. 2021: 基于数值模拟的群发性泥石流危险性评价. 中国地质灾害与防治学报, 32(2): 100-109. doi: 10.16031/j.cnki.issn.1003-8035.2021.02.14
引用本文: 曹鹏, 侯圣山, 陈亮, 冯振, 王立朝, 李昂, 刘军友. 2021: 基于数值模拟的群发性泥石流危险性评价. 中国地质灾害与防治学报, 32(2): 100-109. doi: 10.16031/j.cnki.issn.1003-8035.2021.02.14
Peng CAO, Shengshan HOU, Liang CHEN, Zhen FENG, Lichao WANG, Ang LI, Junyou LIU. 2021: Risk assessment of mass debris flow based on numerical simulation: An example from the Malu River basin in Min County. The Chinese Journal of Geological Hazard and Control, 32(2): 100-109. doi: 10.16031/j.cnki.issn.1003-8035.2021.02.14
Citation: Peng CAO, Shengshan HOU, Liang CHEN, Zhen FENG, Lichao WANG, Ang LI, Junyou LIU. 2021: Risk assessment of mass debris flow based on numerical simulation: An example from the Malu River basin in Min County. The Chinese Journal of Geological Hazard and Control, 32(2): 100-109. doi: 10.16031/j.cnki.issn.1003-8035.2021.02.14

基于数值模拟的群发性泥石流危险性评价

doi: 10.16031/j.cnki.issn.1003-8035.2021.02.14
基金项目: 中国地质调查局地质调查项目(DD20190645);国家重点研发计划项目(2018YFC1505502;2018YFC1504704);国家自然科学基金重点项目(41731287)
详细信息
    作者简介:

    曹鹏:曹 鹏(1994-),男,河北张家口人,硕士研究生,主要从事地质灾害调查和危险性评估相关研究。E-mail:1183272453@qq.com

    通讯作者:

    侯圣山(1977-),男,山东济宁人,博士,教授级高级工程师,主要从事地质灾害调查监测相关研究。E-mail: houshengshan@mail.cgs.gov.cn

  • 中图分类号: P642.23

Risk assessment of mass debris flow based on numerical simulation: An example from the Malu River basin in Min County

  • 摘要: 岷县是甘肃南部泥石流频发地区。岷县泥石流多分布于洮河干支流两岸,为群发性泥石流。为了研究群发性泥石流的运动及堆积特征,选取了甘肃岷县麻路河流域为研究区域,以流域内2012年“5·10”暴发泥石流造成重大损失的6条泥石流沟作为整体研究对象,并考虑主河对泥石流堆积物的冲刷携带,运用FLO-2D模拟降雨前主河流动情况及不同降雨频率条件下主河及泥石流的流动情况。根据野外调查结果对比2%降雨频率条件下泥石流模拟结果,验证模型的可靠性。基于模拟结果用ArcGIS进行危险性评价,识别流域内高危险泥石流沟并划定高危险居民区,统计受冲击范围,为泥石流防治和预警工作提供科学依据。
  • 图  1  研究区地理位置图

    Figure  1.  Location map of study area

    图  2  麻路河流域平面示意图

    Figure  2.  Sketch map of Malu River basin

    图  3  地形坡度分级图

    Figure  3.  Topographic gradient classification map

    图  4  泥石流沟松散物质

    Figure  4.  Loose material in debris flow gullies

    图  5  降雨前流域水系模型

    Figure  5.  River system model before rainfall

    图  6  观测点流速、流深

    Figure  6.  Flow velocity and depth at observation point

    图  7  不同降雨频率条件下泥石流流量过程曲线

    Figure  7.  The flow process curve of debris flow under different rainfall frequency

    图  8  2%降雨频率条件下泥石流模拟结果

    Figure  8.  Simulation results of debris flow under the condition of 2% rainfall frequency

    图  9  1%、2%、5%降雨频率下危险性分区图

    Figure  9.  Hazard zoning map in 1%、2%、5% rainfall frequency

    图  10  百年一遇降雨情况下高危险区域细节图

    Figure  10.  The details of high risk area details (P=1%)

    表  1  泥石流沟特征参数表

    Table  1.   Characteristic parameters of debris flow gullies

    沟名汇水面积/km2纵比降/(‰)主沟长度/km相对高差/m
    杨家沟3.262073.09640
    叶家沟4.041692.83480
    张家沟7.192093.3690
    大湾沟1.833661.01370
    峡里沟3.982132.29490
    拉路沟2.751742.01350
    下载: 导出CSV

    表  2  麻路河流域泥石流沟松散物质量(单位:104 m3

    Table  2.   Volume of loose material in debris flow gullies of Malu River basin (unit: 104 m3)

    沟名松散物质体积量
    坡面耕地崩塌滑坡沟道淤积人工弃渣
    杨家沟19.874.593.900.19
    叶家沟35.204.192.100
    张家沟52.125.764.800
    大湾沟15.972.351.290
    峡里沟8.215.533.451.72
    拉路沟15.581.551.800
    下载: 导出CSV

    表  3  层流阻滞系数表

    Table  3.   Laminar retardation coefficient

    地面条件K值范围
    混凝土/沥青24~108
    裸露沙土30~120
    级配土90~400
    被侵蚀的粘性土100~500
    稀疏植被1 000~4 000
    矮草原3 000~10 000
    早熟禾属植物草地7 000~50 000
    下载: 导出CSV

    表  4  不同频率的降雨参数(单位:mm)

    Table  4.   Rainfall parameters at different frequencies(unit: mm)

    暴雨历时设计频率
    1%2%5%
    H1p42.033.228.4
    H6p52.948.242.2
    下载: 导出CSV

    表  5  模拟-调查误差率表

    Table  5.   Simulation & survey comparison table

    沟名堆积扇范围/m2堆积扇均厚/m
    调查值模拟值误差比率调查值模拟值误差比率
    杨家沟42 469.1945 2006.43%0.300.239−20.33%
    叶家沟79 884.4581 6002.15%0.460.406−11.74%
    张家沟50 921.1056 80011.55%0.710.509−28.31%
    大湾沟26 773.7931 60018.03%0.250.210−16.00%
    峡里沟29 760.9240 40035.75%2.200.706−67.91%
    拉路沟
    下载: 导出CSV

    表  6  数值模拟精度表

    Table  6.   Numerical simulation accuracy table

    沟名堆积扇范围/m2Ac
    调查值模拟值重叠值
    杨家沟42 469.1945 20036 8000.71
    叶家沟79 884.4581 60072 0000.80
    张家沟50 921.1056 80046 8000.76
    大湾沟26 773.7931 60025 6000.77
    峡里沟29 760.9240 40027 6000.63
    拉路沟
    下载: 导出CSV

    表  7  泥石流危险性分区指标

    Table  7.   Risk classification of debris flow

    危险性堆积深度/m逻辑关系堆积深度流速乘积
    H>1.5orVH>1.5
    0.5<H≤1.5and0.5<VH≤1.5
    0.1<H≤0.5and0.1<VH≤0.5
    下载: 导出CSV

    表  8  1%、2%、5%降雨频率条件下泥石流堆积区危险性分区统计表

    Table  8.   Statistical table of hazard zoning of debris flow accumulation area in 1%、2%、5% rainfall frequency

    降雨频率沟名高危险面积/m2占总面积比例中危险面积/m2占总面积比例低危险面积/m2占总面积比例
    P=1%杨家沟6 80030.36%10 80048.21%4 80021.43%
    叶家沟12 40036.47%17 60051.76%4 00011.76%
    张家沟18 80068.12%6 40023.19%2 4008.70%
    大湾沟4 40034.38%6 40050.00%2 00015.63%
    峡里沟20 40069.86%6 40021.92%2 4008.22%
    拉路沟
    P=2%杨家沟5 60025.93%10 00046.30%6 00027.78%
    叶家沟8 80031.43%14 80052.86%4 40015.71%
    张家沟16 40062.12%7 20027.27%2 80010.61%
    大湾沟3 60029.03%6 40051.61%2 40019.35%
    峡里沟17 20064.18%7 20026.87%2 4008.96%
    拉路沟
    P=5%杨家沟4 80024.00%9 20046.00%6 00030.00%
    叶家沟7 20026.87%14 40053.73%5 20019.40%
    张家沟11 60045.31%10 80042.19%3 20012.50%
    大湾沟2 40020.69%6 40055.17%2 80024.14%
    峡里沟15 60062.90%6 80027.42%2 4009.68%
    拉路沟
    下载: 导出CSV
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  • 收稿日期:  2020-04-30
  • 修回日期:  2020-10-18
  • 刊出日期:  2021-04-27

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