Assessment of the susceptibility and hazard of debris flow in the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (foreign section)
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摘要: 中巴经济走廊（CPEC）是“一带一路”建设的重要组成部分，主要涉及中国和巴基斯坦两个国家。近年来，受地震和全球气温升高等因素的影响，导致中巴经济走廊区域内崩塌、滑坡和泥石流等地质灾害频发，影响国家战略的实施及周边国家人民生命财产安全。因此，加强开展中巴经济走廊范围内泥石流灾害发育情况的详细调查、构建相应的数据库，分析其分布规律并进行泥石流危险性区划具有重要意义。文章聚焦于中巴经济走廊国外段部分，通过光学影像遥感解译、统计分析研究区内泥石流灾害发育及分布规律，选取高程、坡向、距断层距离、距水系距离、NDVI、地震峰值加速度（PGA）等6个评价指标，利用概率综合判别法和层次分析法构建区域泥石流易发性评价模型，叠加年平均降雨指标，实现了区域泥石流危险性区划，为中巴经济走廊重大交通工程建设提供服务。结果表明：研究区内泥石流危险性主要为极低危险性和低危险性，分别占比49.35%和25.41%，主要分布在印度河平原地区；中危险性占比10.75%，主要分布在西南部高原地区，降雨型泥石流最为发育；高危险性和极高危险性分别占比11.09%和3.41%，主要分布在北部高原地区，冰川型泥石流最为发育。随着地形变化，泥石流物源增多，受冰川消融和降雨的影响，泥石流发育危险性增高。Abstract: The China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) is an important part of the "Belt and Road" construction, mainly involving China and Pakistan. In recent years, affected by factors such as earthquakes in Pakistan and rising global temperatures, disasters such as collapses, landslides and debris flow have occurred frequently in CPEC, affecting the implementation of the national strategy and the safety of people's lives and property in surrounding countries. Therefore, it is of great significance to strengthen the detailed investigation of the development of debris flow disasters within the scope of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor, build a corresponding database, analyze their distribution laws, and carry out debris flow risk zoning. The article focuses on the foreign part of the CPEC, through optical image remote sensing interpretation and statistical analysis of the development and distribution of debris flow disasters in the regional study area, selects elevation, aspect, distance from fault, distance from water system, NDVI, seismic peak acceleration (PGA) 6 evaluation indicators, using probabilistic comprehensive discrimination method to construct a regional debris flow susceptibility evaluation model, superimposing annual average rainfall indicators, realizing regional debris flow hazard zoning, and providing services for the construction of major traffic projects in the CPEC. The results show that the debris flow risks in the study area are mainly very low hazard and low hazard, accounting for 49.35% and 25.41%, respectively, mainly distributed in the Indus River Plain; medium hazard accounts for 10.75%, mainly in the southwest. In the plateau area, rainfall-type debris flows are the most developed; high-hazard and extremely-high-hazard debris flows account for 11.09% and 3.41%, respectively, and are mainly distributed in the northern plateau area, where glacial debris flows are the most developed. With the change of topography, the source of debris flow increases, and the hazard of debris flow development increases due to the influence of glaciers ablation and rainfall.
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图 5 泥石流在不同诱发因子上的分布柱状图
Figure 5. Histogram of the distribution of debris flow on different inducing factors
图 6 泥石流易发性评价因子分级图
Figure 6. the evaluation factor classification map of debris flow susceptibility
图 7 中巴经济走廊（国外段）泥石流易发性分布图
Figure 7. Distribution map of debris flow susceptibility in CPEC （ foreign section）
图 8 ROC曲线验证评价模型精度图
Figure 8. Accuracy diagram of ROC curve verification and evaluation model
图 9 中巴经济走廊（国外段）年平均降雨分布图
Figure 9. annual average rainfall distribution in CPEC(foreign section)
图 10 中巴经济走廊（国外段）降雨侵蚀力分布图
Figure 10. Distribution of rainfall erosivity in CPEC(foreign section)
图 11 中巴经济走廊（国外段）泥石流危险性分布图
Figure 11. Map of the hazard distribution of debris flow in CPEC(foreign section)
表 1 中巴经济走廊（国外段）泥石流危险性分区结果
Table 1. Zoning results of debris flow hazards in CPEC(foreign section)
危险性 面积/ km2 百分比/% 低危险性 572 575.4 49.35 轻危险性 294 740.4 25.41 中危险性 124 670.7 10.75 高危险性 128 717.8 11.09 极高危险性 39 600.1 3.41 
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