ISSN 1003-8035 CN 11-2852/P
  • 中国科技核心期刊
  • CSCD收录期刊
  • Caj-cd规范获奖期刊
欢迎扫码关注“i环境微平台”

留言板

尊敬的读者、作者、审稿人, 关于本刊的投稿、审稿、编辑和出版的任何问题, 您可以本页添加留言。我们将尽快给您答复。谢谢您的支持!

姓名
邮箱
手机号码
标题
留言内容
验证码

基于斜坡单元与随机森林模型的元阳县崩滑地质灾害易发性评价

刘帅 朱杰勇 杨得虎 马博

刘帅,朱杰勇,杨得虎,等. 基于斜坡单元与随机森林模型的元阳县崩滑地质灾害易发性评价[J]. 中国地质灾害与防治学报,2023,34(4): 1-8 doi: 10.16031/j.cnki.issn.1003-8035.202207003
引用本文: 刘帅,朱杰勇,杨得虎,等. 基于斜坡单元与随机森林模型的元阳县崩滑地质灾害易发性评价[J]. 中国地质灾害与防治学报,2023,34(4): 1-8 doi: 10.16031/j.cnki.issn.1003-8035.202207003
LIU Shuai,ZHU Jieyong,YANG Dehu,et al. Evaluation of geological hazard susceptibility of collapse and landslide in Yuanyang County using slope units and random forest modeling[J]. The Chinese Journal of Geological Hazard and Control,2023,34(4): 1-8 doi: 10.16031/j.cnki.issn.1003-8035.202207003
Citation: LIU Shuai,ZHU Jieyong,YANG Dehu,et al. Evaluation of geological hazard susceptibility of collapse and landslide in Yuanyang County using slope units and random forest modeling[J]. The Chinese Journal of Geological Hazard and Control,2023,34(4): 1-8 doi: 10.16031/j.cnki.issn.1003-8035.202207003

基于斜坡单元与随机森林模型的元阳县崩滑地质灾害易发性评价

doi: 10.16031/j.cnki.issn.1003-8035.202207003
基金项目: 云南省地质灾害特征及防治对策研究(YNGH[2021]-421)
详细信息
    作者简介:

    刘帅:刘 帅(1997-),男,山西太原人,硕士生,研究方向:环境地质与灾害地质。E-mail:1048485867@qq.com

    通讯作者:

    朱杰勇(1961-),男,云南昆明人,教授,硕士生导师,主要从事矿产普查与勘探、地质灾害、工程地质与水文地质研究。E-mail:zhujieyong@kmust.edu.cn

Evaluation of geological hazard susceptibility of collapse and landslide in Yuanyang County using slope units and random forest modeling

  • 摘要: 针对基于栅格单元与定性定量方法模型的地质灾害易发性评价的频繁使用及弊端,采用斜坡单元与机器学习方法-随机森林模型相结合开展元阳县崩滑地质灾害易发性评价。在ArcGIS中,利用曲率分水岭法划分出7851个斜坡单元。经过大量统计研究与地质环境条件分析,选取工程地质岩组、地貌类型、高程、坡度、坡向、曲率、起伏度、河流距离、断层距离9个因子作为评价指标,并通过SPSS软件,将9个评价指标与灾点发育特征的关系进行数据分析,得出各评价指标权重。在SPSS中,采用随机森林模型,建立易发性评价模型,将元阳县崩滑地质灾害易发性等级划分为低、中、高、极高4类易发区,所占面积分别为410.06 km2、470.21 km2、550.02 km2和776.87 km2,分别占元阳县面积的18.58%、21.30%、24.92%和35.20%。经与详查结果对比,评价结果与实际高度吻合。利用ROC曲线得出区划结果精度AUC值为92.7%,区划结果相当好。元阳县中部和西南两个部分地质灾害集中,易发性极高。
  • 图  1  元阳县崩滑灾点分布图

    Figure  1.  Distribution map of collapse and landslide disaster sites in Yuanyang County

    图  2  斜坡单元划分流程图

    Figure  2.  Flowchart of slope unit division process

    图  3  元阳县斜坡单元划分结果

    Figure  3.  Slope unit division results in Yuanyang County

    图  4  评价因子特征重要性

    Figure  4.  Significance of evaluation factor characteristics

    图  5  混淆矩阵热力图

    Figure  5.  Thermal diagram of confusion matrix

    图  6  地质灾害易发性区划图

    Figure  6.  Zoning map of geological hazard susceptibility

    图  7  ROC曲线

    Figure  7.  ROC curve

    图  8  易发性评价结果实际对比图

    Figure  8.  Comparison chart of actual susceptibility evaluation results

    表  1  随机森林模型参数

    Table  1.   Summary table of Random forest model parameters

    参数名参数值
    训练用时0.156s
    数据切分0.7
    数据洗牌
    交叉验证
    节点分裂评价准则gini
    决策树数量100
    有放回采样TRUE
    袋外数据测试FALSE
    划分时考虑的最大特征比例auto
    内部节点分裂的最小样本数2
    叶子节点的最小样本数1
    叶子节点中样本的最小权重0
    树的最大深度10
    叶子节点的最大数量50
    节点划分不纯度的阀值0
    下载: 导出CSV

    表  2  数据集精确率

    Table  2.   Summary table of dataset accuracy

     准确率召回率精确率F1
    训练集0.920.920.9260.92
    测试集0.7050.7050.7050.704
    下载: 导出CSV

    表  3  易发性分级数据统计

    Table  3.   Sueceptibility classification data statistics

    易发性等级灾点数比重区间面积(km²)比重
    197.34%410.0618.58%
    218.11%470.2121.30%
    7729.73%550.0224.92%
    极高14254.83%776.8735.20%
    下载: 导出CSV

    表  4  评价结果对比表

    Table  4.   Comparison table of evaluation results

    结果来源易发性等级灾点数比重区间面积(km²)比重
    本文评价结果197.34%410.0618.58%
    218.11%470.2121.30%
    7729.73%550.0224.92%
    极高14254.83%776.8735.20%
    详查评价结果00.00%369.7016.75%
    197.34%511.1823.16%
    8030.89%591.3026.79%
    极高15760.62%734.9833.30%
    下载: 导出CSV
  • [1] 殷坤龙,张桂荣. 地质灾害风险区划与综合防治对策[J]. 安全与环境工程,2003,10(1):32 − 35. [YIN Kunlong,ZHANG Guirong. Risk zonation of geo-hazards and its comprehensive control[J]. Safety and Environmental Engineering,2003,10(1):32 − 35. (in Chinese with English abstract) doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1671-1556.2003.01.010
    [2] 田述军,张珊珊,唐青松,等. 基于不同评价单元的滑坡易发性评价对比研究[J]. 自然灾害学报,2019,28(6):137 − 145. [TIAN Shujun,ZHANG Shanshan,TANG Qingsong,et al. Comparative study of landslide susceptibility assessment based on different evaluation units[J]. Journal of Natural Disasters,2019,28(6):137 − 145. (in Chinese with English abstract) doi: 10.13577/j.jnd.2019.0615
    [3] 王磊,常鸣,邢月龙. 基于信息量法模型与GIS的滑坡地质灾害风险性评价[J]. 地质灾害与环境保护,2021,32(2):14 − 20. [WANG Lei,CHANG Ming,XING Yuelong. Risk assessment of landslide geological hazards based on information method model and GIS[J]. Journal of Geological Hazards and Environment Preservation,2021,32(2):14 − 20. (in Chinese with English abstract) doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1006-4362.2021.02.003
    [4] 于成龙. 和龙市典型地质灾害风险性区划与地质环境承载力综合评价研究[D]. 长春: 吉林大学, 2021

    YU Chenglong. Study on risk mapping of typical geological hazards and comprehensive evaluation of geological environment carrying capacity in Helong city[D]. Changchun: Jilin University, 2021. (in Chinese with English abstract)
    [5] 朱浩濛, 马晓峰, 张义顺. 基于斜坡单元下的层次分析法在地质灾害易发性区划中的应用[C]//防治地灾 除险安居——浙江省地质学会2017年学术年会论文集. 杭州, 2017: 79 − 84.
    [6] 赵晓燕,谈树成,李永平. 基于斜坡单元与组合赋权法的东川区地质灾害危险性评价[J]. 云南大学学报(自然科学版),2021,43(2):299 − 305. [ZHAO Xiaoyan,TAN Shucheng,LI Yongping. Risk assessment of geological hazards in Dongchuan District based on the methods of slope unit and combination weighting[J]. Journal of Yunnan University (Natural Sciences Edition),2021,43(2):299 − 305. (in Chinese with English abstract)
    [7] 李益敏,李驭豪,赵志芳. 基于确定性系数模型的泸水市泥石流易发性评价[J]. 水土保持研究,2019,26(4):336 − 342. [LI Yimin,LI Yuhao,ZHAO Zhifang. Assessment on susceptibility of debris flow in Lushui based on the certain factor model[J]. Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2019,26(4):336 − 342. (in Chinese with English abstract) doi: 10.13869/j.cnki.rswc.2019.04.050
    [8] 胡燕,李德营,孟颂颂,等. 基于证据权法的巴东县城滑坡灾害易发性评价[J]. 地质科技通报,2020,39(3):187 − 194. [HU Yan,LI Deying,MENG Songsong,et al. Landslide susceptibility evaluation in Badong County based on weights of evidence method[J]. Bulletin of Geological Science and Technology,2020,39(3):187 − 194. (in Chinese with English abstract)
    [9] 牛瑞卿,彭令,叶润青,等. 基于粗糙集的支持向量机滑坡易发性评价[J]. 吉林大学学报(地球科学版),2012,42(2):430 − 439. [NIU Ruiqing,PENG Ling,YE Runqing,et al. Landslide susceptibility assessment based on rough sets and support vector machine[J]. Journal of Jilin University (Earth Science Edition),2012,42(2):430 − 439. (in Chinese with English abstract)
    [10] 郑迎凯,陈建国,王成彬,等. 确定性系数与随机森林模型在云南芒市滑坡易发性评价中的应用[J]. 地质科技通报,2020,39(6):131 − 144. [ZHENG Yingkai,CHEN Jianguo,WANG Chengbin,et al. Application of certainty factor and random forests model in landslide susceptibility evaluation in Mangshi City,Yunnan Province[J]. Bulletin of Geological Science and Technology,2020,39(6):131 − 144. (in Chinese with English abstract)
    [11] 陆跃萍. 从元阳县城滑坡灾害看山区城镇建设的环境因素[J]. 云南环境科学,1993,12(1):39 − 41. [LU Yueping. Environmental factors of urban construction in mountainous areas from landslide disaster in Yuanyang County[J]. Yunnan Environmental Science,1993,12(1):39 − 41. (in Chinese with English abstract)
    [12] 戚琦. 基于GIS和目标层次联合分析方法的元阳县地质灾害易发程度评价研究[D]. 北京: 中国地质大学(北京), 2012

    QI Qi. Study on the evaluation of the susceptibility of geological hazards occurring in Yuan Yang County based on the combination of AHP and GIS[D]. Beijing: China University of Geosciences, 2012. (in Chinese with English abstract)
    [13] 屠水云,张钟远,付弘流,等. 基于CF与CF-LR模型的地质灾害易发性评价[J]. 中国地质灾害与防治学报,2022,33(2):96 − 104. [TU Shuiyun,ZHANG Zhongyuan,FU Hongliu,et al. Geological hazard susceptibility evaluation based on CF and CF-LR model[J]. The Chinese Journal of Geological Hazard and Control,2022,33(2):96 − 104. (in Chinese with English abstract) doi: 10.16031/j.cnki.issn.1003-8035.2022.02-12
    [14] 温鑫,范宣梅,陈兰,等. 基于信息量模型的地质灾害易发性评价—以川东南古蔺县为例[J]. 地质科技通报,2022,41(2):290 − 299. [WEN Xin,FAN Xuanmei,CHEN Lan,et al. Susceptibility assessment of geological disasters based on an information value model:A case of Gulin County in Southeast Sichuan[J]. Bulletin of Geological Science and Technology,2022,41(2):290 − 299. (in Chinese with English abstract)
    [15] 毕鸿基,聂磊,曾超,等. 基于三种多变量不安定指数分析模型的汶川县地质灾害易发性评价[J]. 中国地质灾害与防治学报,2022,33(1):123 − 131. [BI Hongji,NIE Lei,ZENG Chao,et al. Geological hazard susceptibility evaluation in Wenchuan area based on three models of multivariate instability index analysis[J]. The Chinese Journal of Geological Hazard and Control,2022,33(1):123 − 131. (in Chinese with English abstract) doi: 10.16031/j.cnki.issn.1003-8035.2022.01-15
    [16] 韩用顺,孙湘艳,刘通,等. 基于证据权-投影寻踪模型的藏东南地质灾害易发性评价[J]. 山地学报,2021,39(5):672 − 686. [HAN Yongshun,SUN Xiangyan,LIU Tong,et al. Susceptibility evaluation of geological hazards based on evidence weight-projection pursuit model in southeast Tibet,China[J]. Mountain Research,2021,39(5):672 − 686. (in Chinese with English abstract) doi: 10.16089/j.cnki.1008-2786.000629
    [17] 祁于娜,王磊. 层次分析-熵值定权法应用于山区城镇地质灾害易发性评价[J]. 测绘通报,2021(6):112 − 116. [QI Yuna,WANG Lei. Application of AHP-entropy weight method in hazards susceptibility assessment in mountain town[J]. Bulletin of Surveying and Mapping,2021(6):112 − 116. (in Chinese with English abstract) doi: 10.13474/j.cnki.11-2246.2021.0187
    [18] 曹文霞. 基于组合赋权法的交口县地质灾害易发性评价研究[D]. 太原: 太原理工大学, 2021

    CAO Wenxia. Study on geohazard susceptibility evaluation based on combination weighting method in Jiaokou country[D]. Taiyuan: Taiyuan University of Technology, 2021. (in Chinese with English abstract)
    [19] 孙长明,马润勇,尚合欣,等. 基于滑坡分类的西宁市滑坡易发性评价[J]. 水文地质工程地质,2020,47(3):173 − 181. [SUN Changming,MA Runyong,SHANG Hexin,et al. Landslide susceptibility assessment in Xining based on landslide classification[J]. Hydrogeology & Engineering Geology,2020,47(3):173 − 181. (in Chinese with English abstract) doi: 10.16030/j.cnki.issn.1000-3665.201906074
    [20] 姬永涛, 王鲜, 郝业, 等. 基于斜坡单元的陕西省城镇地质灾害风险调查评价——以西安市蒋村街道为例[J]. 灾害学: 1 − 12

    Ji Yongtao, WANG Xian, HAO Ye, et al. Disaster: 1 − 12. ( in Chinese with English abstract
    [21] 邹凤钗,冷洋洋,陶小郎,等. 基于斜坡单元的滑坡风险识别—以贵州万山浅层土质斜坡为例[J]. 中国地质灾害与防治学报,2022,33(3):114 − 122. [ZOU Fengchai,LENG Yangyang,TAO Xiaolang,et al. Landslide hazard identification based on slope unit:A case study of shallow soil slope in Wanshan,Guizhou Province[J]. The Chinese Journal of Geological Hazard and Control,2022,33(3):114 − 122. (in Chinese with English abstract)
    [22] 王家柱, 高延超, 铁永波, 徐伟, 白永健, 张彦锋. 基于斜坡单元的山区城镇滑坡灾害易发性评价: 以康定为例[J]. 沉积与特提斯地质: 1 − 17

    Wang Jiazhu, Gao Yan-chao, Tie Yong-bo, Xu Wei, Bai Yong-jian, ZHANG Yan-feng. Evaluation of landslide hazard susceptibility in mountainous towns based on slope element: A case study of Kangding city[J]. Sedimentary and Tethyan Geology: 1 − 17. ( in Chinese with English abstract
    [23] 胡瑞林,陈平,庄茂国,等. “坡长制斜坡地质灾害防治体系”的建立与技术要点[J]. 工程地质学报,2020,28(4):748 − 761. [HU Ruilin,CHEN Ping,ZHUANG Maoguo,et al. Establishment and technical essentials of slope-geohazard prevention system of slope-unit administrant[J]. Journal of Engineering Geology,2020,28(4):748 − 761. (in Chinese with English abstract) doi: 10.13544/j.cnki.jeg.2020-057
    [24] 申泽西,张强,吴文欢,等. 青藏高原及横断山区地质灾害易发区空间格局及驱动因子[J]. 地理学报,2022,77(5):1211 − 1224. [SHEN Zexi,ZHANG Qiang,WU Wenhuan,et al. Spatial pattern and attribution analysis of the regions with frequent geological disasters in the Tibetan Plateau and Hengduan Mountains[J]. Acta Geographica Sinica,2022,77(5):1211 − 1224. (in Chinese with English abstract) doi: 10.11821/dlxb202205012
    [25] 杨硕,李德营,严亮轩,等. 基于随机森林模型的乌江高陡岸坡滑坡地质灾害易发性评价[J]. 安全与环境工程,2021,28(4):131 − 138. [YANG Shuo,LI Deying,YAN Liangxuan,et al. Landslide susceptibility assessment in high and steep bank slopes along Wujiang River based on random forest model[J]. Safety and Environmental Engineering,2021,28(4):131 − 138. (in Chinese with English abstract) doi: 10.13578/j.cnki.issn.1671-1556.20200956
    [26] 吴润泽,胡旭东,梅红波,等. 基于随机森林的滑坡空间易发性评价:以三峡库区湖北段为例[J]. 地球科学,2021,46(1):321 − 330. [WU Runze,HU Xudong,MEI Hongbo,et al. Spatial susceptibility assessment of landslides based on random forest:a case study from Hubei section in the Three Gorges Reservoir area[J]. Earth Science,2021,46(1):321 − 330. (in Chinese with English abstract)
    [27] 刘磊,殷坤龙,张俊. 三峡库区万州主城区第四系堆积层厚度的估算方法及应用[J]. 地质科技情报,2016,35(1):177 − 183. [LIU Lei,YIN Kunlong,ZHANG Jun. Estimation method of the quaternary deposits thickness and its application in Wanzhou central district,Three Gorges Reservoir region[J]. Geological Science and Technology Information,2016,35(1):177 − 183. (in Chinese with English abstract)
  • 加载中
图(8) / 表(4)
计量
  • 文章访问数:  249
  • HTML全文浏览量:  21
  • PDF下载量:  23
  • 被引次数: 0
出版历程
  • 收稿日期:  2022-07-15
  • 录用日期:  2022-08-17
  • 修回日期:  2022-07-16
  • 网络出版日期:  2023-05-06

目录

    /

    返回文章
    返回