ISSN 1003-8035 CN 11-2852/P
    田尤,陈龙,黄海,等. 藏东察雅县城地质灾害风险评价及源头管控对策建议[J]. 中国地质灾害与防治学报,2023,34(0): 1-9. DOI: 10.16031/j.cnki.issn.1003-8035.202208033
    引用本文: 田尤,陈龙,黄海,等. 藏东察雅县城地质灾害风险评价及源头管控对策建议[J]. 中国地质灾害与防治学报,2023,34(0): 1-9. DOI: 10.16031/j.cnki.issn.1003-8035.202208033
    TIAN You,CHEN Long,HUANG Hai,et al. Geological hazard risk assessment and suggestions for risk control in chaya county, eastern Tibet[J]. The Chinese Journal of Geological Hazard and Control,2023,34(0): 1-9. DOI: 10.16031/j.cnki.issn.1003-8035.202208033
    Citation: TIAN You,CHEN Long,HUANG Hai,et al. Geological hazard risk assessment and suggestions for risk control in chaya county, eastern Tibet[J]. The Chinese Journal of Geological Hazard and Control,2023,34(0): 1-9. DOI: 10.16031/j.cnki.issn.1003-8035.202208033

    藏东察雅县城地质灾害风险评价及源头管控对策建议

    Geological hazard risk assessment and suggestions for risk control in chaya county, eastern Tibet

    • 摘要: 以藏东察雅县城为研究区,选取高程、坡度、坡形、坡向、斜坡结构、地层、距断层距离7个评价指标,运用证据权重法,构建了地质灾害易发性评价模型。以四种降雨频率(10%、5%、2%、1%)下的年最大日降雨量作为动态诱发因子,建筑人口和交通设施作为承灾体,评价了地质灾害的动态风险性。结果表明,除围绕县城场镇两侧的斜坡以高风险和极高风险区为主外,研究区其他区域以中、低风险为主。随着降雨频率的降低,区内高风险区与极高风险区面积同比最大增长25.81%和0.44%;低风险区与中风险区面积最大下降幅度分别为20.03%和6.52%。基于风险评价结果,提出考虑不同降雨频率的地质灾害风险源头管控方法,具体为:针对10%、5%、2%和1%四种降雨频率下的极高风险区,建议分别采取工程治理、工程治理/专业监测、专业监测、专业监测/群专结合的管控手段;针对1%降雨频率下的高风险与中风险区,建议采取的风险管控措施为群专结合与群测群防。该风险管控体系考虑了不同降雨频率下斜坡的动态风险,可精细化提高山区城镇地质灾害风险的管控水平。

       

      Abstract: Chaya County Town in eastern Tibet was selected as the research area for the susceptibility assessment of geological disasters. Seven evaluation indexes, including elevation, slope grade, slope form, slope direction, slope structure, stratum, and distance from fault, were selected to construct an evaluation model of geological disaster susceptibility using the evidence weight method. Using the annual maximum daily rainfall under four rainfall frequencies (10%, 5%, 2%, 1% ) as the dynamic inducing factor and building population and transportation facilities as the hazard bearing body, the dynamic risk of geological hazards in the town was evaluated. The results show that except for the slopes on both sides of the county town, which were mainly high-risk and extremely high-risk areas, other areas in the research area were mainly medium and low-risk areas. As the frequency of rainfall decreased, the areas of high-risk and extremely high-risk areas increased by a maximum of 25.81% and 0.44%, respectively, while the areas of low-risk and medium-risk areas decreased by a maximum of 20.03% and 6.52%, respectively. Based on the risk assessment results, a method for controlling the source of geological hazard risk considering different rainfall frequencies was proposed. Specifically, for the extremely high-risk areas under the four rainfall frequencies of 10%, 5%, 2% and 1%, it is recommended to adopt engineering management, engineering management / professional monitoring, professional monitoring, and professional monitoring / combination of mass monitoring and professional monitoring. For the high-risk and medium-risk areas under a 1% rainfall frequency, the recommended risk control measures were the combination of mass monitoring and professional monitoring, and the combination of mass supervision and mass prevention.The risk management and control system accounted for the dynamic risks of slopes under different rainfall frequencies, which would enhance the management and control of geological hazard risks in mountainous urban areas in a refined manner.

       

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