Analysis and application of safety risks for gas pipelines in karst sinkhole-prone areas based on the D/I-MICMAC-VS integrated method
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摘要: 为降低岩溶塌陷隐患区燃气管道的风险水平，基于人、物、环境、管理4类事故诱因，文章选用DEMATEL/ISM法厘清系统因素间的层次结构和因果关系，结合MICMAC法分析风险因素的依赖度和驱动力，并基于Visual Studio平台开发了“岩溶塌陷隐患区燃气管道风险分析软件”，形成了一种D/I-MICMAC-VS集成风险分析方法并开展实例研究。结果表明：（1）岩溶塌陷隐患区燃气管道风险因素分布于6个层级，通过对表层直接因素的严格管理可以在短期内降低风险事故发生的可能性。中层间接因素在系统中起承上启下作用。只有重视深层根本因素，才能够从根本上对燃气管道事故进行控制。（2）自发集群是燃气管道事故风险管控的关键抓手，通过优先干预可对事故防治起到显著作用。独立集群通过自身的变化发展直接影响系统的风险水平。联动集群对事故的演化发展起到传递推动作用。只有厘清诱发依赖集群变化的深层根本因素才能实现有效风险管控。
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关键词:
- DEMATEL/ISM法 /
- MICMAC法 /
- Visual Studio /
- 岩溶塌陷隐患区 /
- 燃气管道 /
- 风险分析
Abstract: To mitigate the risk of gas pipelines in karst sinkhole-prone areas, this study employs the DEMATEL/ISM method to elucidate the hierarchical structure and causal relationships among various factors in the system, considering four categories of accident causes: human, material, environment and management. Additionally, the MICMAC method is utilized to analyze the dependence and driving force of risk factors. Utilizing the Visual Studio platform, the software for risk analysis of gas pipelines in karst sinkhole-prone areas is developed. This research introduces the D/I-MICMAC-VS integrated risk analysis method and provides an example analysis. The results demonstrate that: (1) The risk factors for gas pipelines in karst sinkhole-prone areas are distributed across six levels. The possibility of risk accidents can be reduced in the short term by rigorously managing surface-level direct factors, while middle-level indirect factors play an intermediary role in the system. Effective control of gas pipeline accidents can only be achieved by addressing deep-rooted factors fundamentally. (2) The spontaneous cluster serves as a key element for risk management and control of gas pipeline accidents, and prioritized intervention significantly aids in accident prevention. The independent cluster directly influences the system’s risk level through its own changes and development. The linkage cluster plays a pivotal role in transmitting and promoting the evolution and development of accidents. Effective risk management and control can be achieved by discerning the deep root factors that inducing changes in the dependency cluster.-
Key words:
- DEMATEL/ISM method /
- MICMAC method /
- Visual Studio /
- karst sinkhole-prone area /
- gas pipeline /
- risk analysis
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图 1 岩溶发育过程中埋地管道变形特征
Figure 1. Deformation characteristics of buried pipelines during karst development process
图 2 轨迹交叉-因果连锁事故复合致因模型
Figure 2. Compound causal model of trajectory intersections and causal chain accidents
图 3 基于Cartesian坐标系的MICMAC分析结果
Figure 3. MICMAC analysis results based on Cartesian coordinate system
图 6 风险因素依赖度-驱动力图
Figure 6. Schematic diagram of dependency-driving force of risk factors
表 1 岩溶塌陷形成原因
Table 1. Formation causes of karst collapse
类型 具体形成原因 地下水活动 地下水活动对岩溶塌陷的诱发作用主要表现在溶蚀、渗透潜蚀、真空吸蚀、地下水位波动的散解、
地下水的水击等方面大气降水及地表水渗透潜蚀 大气降水与地表水借由土体缝隙逐层下渗或通过落水洞、漏斗等以渗漏直接注入的方式向岩溶水
补给，对沿层土体进行潜蚀、淘空地震作用 地震载荷诱发土层错动，导致岩溶土洞顶板破裂坍塌；岩溶洞隙上覆浅埋的松散饱水细粒砂层在地
震作用下引发“土壤液化”现象，导致土体强度降低、土拱结构破坏重力作用 在土拱结构支撑下小尺寸土洞通常趋于稳态，但在外部因素驱动下土洞逐渐向上发育扩展，土洞顶
板在岩溶覆盖层重力作用下持续受力，最终达到强度极限并失稳坍塌人类活动作用 地下工程导致地下水失衡 工程施工极易引起地下水位波动诱发地质失衡，对岩溶土体稳定性造成直接影响 酸碱液化学潜蚀 工业废液通过土层缝隙流入地下后与可溶性物质发生化学反应，加剧岩溶土体的溶蚀作用 占压荷载产生附加压力 城镇化发展带动地表占压载荷的施加将加剧地下土拱结构失稳，诱发岩溶土洞顶板坍塌 
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表 2 风险因素指标体系
Table 2. Risk factor indicator system
维度 具体风险因素 人员不安全状态 受教育程度不高（e1）、专业技能不足（e2）、管道保护意识淡薄（e3）、安全意识薄弱（e4）、应急处置能力不足（e5） 管道不安全状态 管道老化（e6）、管道腐蚀（e7）、安全设施失效（e8）、建设工艺不达标（e9） 环境不安全状态 人类活动强度（e10）、施工与震动（e11）、抽取地下水（e12）、经济发展水平（e13）、法律法规（e14）、岩溶地质发育（e15）、
地下水活动（e16）、覆盖层特征（e17）、构造条件（e18）、地形地貌（e19）、气象条件（e20）管理漏洞 安全监管欠缺（e21）、安全宣传不到位（e22）、应急保障不完善（e23）、规章制度不合理（e24）
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表 3 风险因素的直接影响矩阵
Table 3. Direct impact matrix of risk factors
e1 e2 e3 e4 e5 e6 e7 e8 e9 e10 e11 e12 e13 e14 e15 e16 e17 e18 e19 e20 e21 e22 e23 e24 e1 0 4 4 4 4 0 0 0 3 0 0 0 3 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 3 3 3 e2 2 0 2 2 4 4 4 4 4 0 0 0 0 2 4 2 2 3 3 3 3 2 3 2 e3 0 0 0 4 0 2 2 2 0 3 3 3 0 2 2 0 0 0 2 0 4 4 4 3 e4 0 2 4 0 3 0 0 3 3 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 4 4 4 3 e5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 0 0 0 0 2 2 2 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 4 0 e6 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 e7 0 0 0 0 0 3 0 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 e8 0 0 0 0 0 2 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 e9 0 0 0 0 0 4 4 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 e10 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 4 4 3 2 3 3 0 0 3 2 0 0 0 0 e11 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 2 0 2 0 3 2 0 3 3 2 2 3 0 0 0 0 0 e12 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 4 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 e13 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 4 4 4 0 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 3 3 3 3 e14 2 4 4 4 4 2 2 3 4 0 4 2 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 4 4 4 4 e15 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 4 4 3 4 0 0 0 0 0 e16 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 4 0 3 3 2 2 0 0 0 0 e17 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 3 0 2 2 0 0 0 0 0 e18 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 4 4 4 0 4 0 0 0 0 0 e19 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 3 3 3 0 4 4 4 2 0 4 0 0 0 0 e20 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 2 2 0 0 3 4 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 e21 0 4 0 4 4 4 4 4 4 3 4 6 0 2 3 0 0 3 0 0 0 4 4 4 e22 0 2 4 4 3 2 2 2 3 2 3 3 0 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 3 2 e23 0 3 2 2 4 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 2 3 0 0 0 0 3 2 2 0 3 e24 0 4 2 3 3 3 3 3 4 2 4 4 0 3 3 0 0 0 0 0 4 4 4 0
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