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舟曲县果耶镇磨里滑坡成因及堵江危险性预测分析

郭一兵 姜鑫 郭富赟 丁保艳 吴正军 岳东霞 刘昌禄

郭一兵,姜鑫,郭富赟,等. 舟曲县果耶镇磨里滑坡成因及堵江危险性预测分析[J]. 中国地质灾害与防治学报,2023,34(0): 1-11 doi: 10.16031/j.cnki.issn.1003-8035.202211039
引用本文: 郭一兵,姜鑫,郭富赟,等. 舟曲县果耶镇磨里滑坡成因及堵江危险性预测分析[J]. 中国地质灾害与防治学报,2023,34(0): 1-11 doi: 10.16031/j.cnki.issn.1003-8035.202211039
GUO Yibing,JIANG Xin,GUO Fuyun,et al. Analysis on the formation causes of the moli landslide and river blockage risk in Guoye town, Zhouqu County[J]. The Chinese Journal of Geological Hazard and Control,2023,34(0): 1-11 doi: 10.16031/j.cnki.issn.1003-8035.202211039
Citation: GUO Yibing,JIANG Xin,GUO Fuyun,et al. Analysis on the formation causes of the moli landslide and river blockage risk in Guoye town, Zhouqu County[J]. The Chinese Journal of Geological Hazard and Control,2023,34(0): 1-11 doi: 10.16031/j.cnki.issn.1003-8035.202211039

舟曲县果耶镇磨里滑坡成因及堵江危险性预测分析

doi: 10.16031/j.cnki.issn.1003-8035.202211039
基金项目: 国家自然科学基金面上项目(42077230)
详细信息
    作者简介:

    郭一兵(1986-),男,硕士,甘肃兰州,高级工程师,主要从事地质灾害防治技术工作,E-mail:267255343@qq.com

Analysis on the formation causes of the moli landslide and river blockage risk in Guoye town, Zhouqu County

  • 摘要: 受降雨的影响,2 021年2月26日至28日,舟曲县果耶镇磨里滑坡发生蠕动变形,坡体裂缝发育,变形迹象明显,共造成92户402人受灾,直接经济损失约1 446.3万元。本文以舟曲县果耶镇磨里滑坡为研究对象,通过遥感解译、无人机航拍和地质勘察等方法,深入了解磨里滑坡所处的地质环境、土体物理力学性质等,对该滑坡的成因进行了详细分析、对滑坡的稳定进行了理论计算和位移监测分析。在野外调查和钻探分析的基础上,采用Massflow数值模型对舟曲县果耶镇磨里滑坡进行数值模拟与预测,确定物源区范围及厚度以预测滑坡的堆积过程以及堵江风险,预测了滑坡堵江的高度以及对上游和下游区域造成的危害。结果表明:(1)磨里滑坡呈长舌状,形态和变形清晰明显,滑体由碎石土和破碎千枚岩组成,平均深度40 m,总体积2 120×104 m3,属特大型深层滑坡。(2)不利的地形条件、岩土体的软化、强烈的构造运动、降雨的入渗和前缘河水冲刷下切形成临空面是滑坡形成的主要因素。(3)该滑坡存在摧毁滑坡体房屋道路和堵江的风险,建议对受磨里滑坡威胁的居民尽快采取避险搬迁措施。本研究可为类似滑坡地质灾害链的成因机制和应急防控等提供参考。
  • 图  1  磨里滑坡平面图

    Figure  1.  Aeial View of the Moli landslide

    图  2  Ⅰ—Ⅰ′主剖面图

    Figure  2.  Geological cross-section map at section Ⅰ—Ⅰ′

    图  3  千枚岩碎屑

    Figure  3.  Site photo of the phyllite detritus

    图  4  累计位移-深度曲线图(ZK3)

    Figure  4.  Cumulative displacement-depth curve (ZK3)

    图  5  累计位移-深度曲线图(ZK11)

    Figure  5.  Cumulative displacement-depth curve (ZK11)

    图  6  累计位移-深度曲线图(ZK16)

    Figure  6.  Cumulative displacement-depth curve (ZK16)

    图  7  GNSS应急位移监测曲线

    Figure  7.  GNSS emergency displacement monitoring curve

    图  8  磨里滑坡降轨InSAR观测结果

    Figure  8.  InSAR observation results of the Moli landslide descending track

    图  9  不同情景下滑坡堆积厚度

    Figure  9.  The thickness of landslide accumulation under different scenarios

    图  10  不同情景下河道内滑坡坝堆积厚度Fig. 10 The thickness of landslide dam accumulation in river under different scenarios

    图  11  不同滑坡堆积结果的溃决洪水演进过程

    Figure  11.  Outburst flood evolution of landslides with different accumulation results

    图  12  不同滑坡堆积结果漫顶时流深

    Figure  12.  Flow depth at the top of landslide with different accumulation deposits

    表  1  滑块滑带土取值表

    Table  1.   Property table of the soils at slide block slip zone

    状态容重( kN/m3强度指标实验标准值反演值采用值
    天然18内聚力C(KPa)20.519.920.2
    内摩擦角φ(°)16.315.916.1
    饱和24内聚力C(KPa)18.517.918.2
    内摩擦角φ(°)15.314.915.1
    下载: 导出CSV

    表  2  滑坡体稳定性成果汇总表

    Table  2.   2, Summary table of landslide stability results

    计算工况稳定系数稳定状态
    工况1:自重1.070基本稳定
    工况2:自重+暴雨0.925不稳定
    工况3:自重+地震0.835不稳定
    下载: 导出CSV

    表  3  滑坡动力过程模拟假设情景与参数

    Table  3.   Simulation scenarios and parameters for landslide dynamic process

    情景滑带土含水率粘聚力(KPa)内摩擦角(°)
    情景一6%54.7935
    情景二18%23.0524
    情景三30%0.2115
    下载: 导出CSV

    表  4  溃决洪水演进过程模拟假设情景与参数

    Table  4.   Simulation scenarios and parameters for evaluation of outburst flood

    情景河流流量
    (m3/s)
    曼宁
    系数
    抗剪强度
    系数
    床负载
    系数
    模拟时常
    (h)
    情景四200.040.131.515
    情景五150.040.131.515
    下载: 导出CSV
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  • 收稿日期:  2022-12-07
  • 录用日期:  2023-04-24
  • 网络出版日期:  2023-05-05

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