Analysis on the formation of the Moli landslide and river blockage risk in Guoye Town, Zhouqu County of Gansu Province
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摘要: 受降雨的影响，2021年2月26—28日，舟曲县果耶镇磨里滑坡发生蠕动变形，坡体裂缝发育，变形迹象明显，共造成92户402人受灾，直接经济损失约1 446.3万元。文中以舟曲县果耶镇磨里滑坡为研究对象，通过遥感解译、无人机航拍和地质勘察等方法，深入了解磨里滑坡所处的地质环境、土体物理力学性质等，对该滑坡的成因进行了详细分析、对滑坡的稳定进行了理论计算和位移监测分析。在野外调查和钻探分析的基础上，采用Massflow数值模型对舟曲县果耶镇磨里滑坡进行数值模拟与预测，确定物源区范围及厚度以预测滑坡的堆积过程和堵江风险，预测了滑坡堵江的高度、对上下游造成的危害。结果表明：（1）磨里滑坡呈长舌状，有清晰的形态和变形特征，滑体由碎石土和破碎千枚岩组成，平均深度40 m，总体积2 120×104 m3，属特大型深层滑坡。（2）不利的地形条件、岩土体的软化、强烈的构造运动、降雨的入渗和前缘河水冲刷下切形成的临空面是发生滑坡主要因素。（3）该滑坡存在摧毁房屋道路和堵江的风险，建议尽快对受威胁采取避险搬迁措施。本研究可为类似滑坡地质灾害链的成因机制和应急防控等提供参考。Abstract: Due to the heavy rainfall, from February 26th to 28th 2021, the Moli landslide in Guoye Town, Zhouqu County, experienced creeping deformation with the development of slope cracks and obnious signs of deformation. A total of of 92 households with 402 people were affected, causing a direct economic loss of approximately 14.463 million yuan. This study focuses on the Moli landslide in Guoye Town, where the geological environment and physical and mechanical properties of the soil were deeply understood through remote sensing interpretation, aerial photography, and geological investigation. The cause of the landslide formation was analyzed in detail, and the stability of the landslide was calculated theoretically and analyzed for displacement monitoring. Based on field investigation and drilling analysis, the Massflow numerical model was used to simulate and predict the Moli landslide in Guoye Town, Zhouqu County. The range and thickness of the source area were determined to predict the accumulation process of the landslide and the risk of river blocking. The height of the river blocking and the harm caused by the landslide to the upstream and downstream regions were predicted. The results showed that: (1) Moli landslide is a super-large deep landslide with a long tongue shape, clear shape and deformation, and composed of broken phyllite and broken stone soil. The average depth of the slide body is 40m, and the total volume is 21.2 million stere. (2) The main factors of landslide formation are unfavorable topographic conditions, softening of rock and soil, strong tectonic movement, rainfall infiltration, and front river erosion. (3) The landslide has the risk of destroying the landslide houses, roads, and blocking the river. It is suggested that the residents threatened by the Moli landslide should take measures to avoid danger and relocate as soon as possible. This study can provide reference for the formation mechanism and emergency prevention and control of similar landslide geological disaster chains.
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图 8 磨里滑坡降轨InSAR观测结果
Figure 8. InSAR observation results of the Moli landslide descending track
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图 9 不同情景下滑坡堆积厚度
Figure 9. The thickness of landslide accumulation under different scenarios
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图 10 不同情景下河道内滑坡坝堆积厚度
Figure 10. The thickness of landslide dam accumulation in river under different scenarios
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图 11 不同滑坡堆积结果的溃决洪水演进过程
Figure 11. Outburst flood evolution of landslides with different accumulation results
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图 12 不同滑坡堆积结果漫顶时流深
Figure 12. Flow depth at the top of landslide with different accumulation deposits
表 1 滑块滑带土取值表
Table 1 Property table of the soils at slide block slip zone
状态 容重/（ kN·m−3） 强度指标 实验标准值 反演值 采用值 天然 18 c/kPa 20.5 19.9 20.2 φ/（°） 16.3 15.9 16.1 饱和 24 c/kPa 18.5 17.9 18.2 φ/（°） 15.3 14.9 15.1 
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表 2 滑坡体稳定性成果汇总表
Table 2 Summary table of landslide stability results
计算工况 稳定系数 稳定状态 工况1：自重 1.070 基本稳定 工况2：自重+暴雨 0.925 不稳定 工况3：自重+地震 0.835 不稳定
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表 3 滑坡动力过程模拟假设情景与参数
Table 3 Simulation scenarios and parameters for landslide dynamic process
情景 滑带土含水率/% 黏聚力/kPa 内摩擦角/（°） 情景一 6 54.79 35 情景二 18 23.05 24 情景三 30 0.21 15
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表 4 溃决洪水演进过程模拟假设情景与参数
Table 4 Simulation scenarios and parameters for evaluation of outburst flood
情景 河流流量
/（m3·s−1）曼宁
系数抗剪强度
系数床负载
系数模拟时长
/h情景四 20 0.04 0.13 1.5 15 情景五 15 0.04 0.13 1.5 15
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