舟曲县果耶镇磨里滑坡成因及堵江危险性预测分析

郭一兵; 姜鑫; 郭富赟; 丁保艳; 吴正军; 岳东霞; 刘昌禄

doi:10.16031/j.cnki.issn.1003-8035.202211039

舟曲县果耶镇磨里滑坡成因及堵江危险性预测分析

doi: 10.16031/j.cnki.issn.1003-8035.202211039

1.
甘肃省地矿局第三地质矿产勘查院，甘肃兰州　7300500
2.
甘肃省地质环境监测院，甘肃兰州　730050
3.
兰州大学地质科学与矿产资源学院，甘肃兰州　730030

基金项目: 国家自然科学基金面上项目（42077230）

详细信息

作者简介:
郭一兵（1986-），男，硕士，甘肃兰州，高级工程师，主要从事地质灾害防治技术工作，E-mail：267255343@qq.com

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出版历程
- 收稿日期: 2022-12-07
- 录用日期: 2023-04-24
- 网络出版日期: 2023-05-05

Analysis on the formation causes of the moli landslide and river blockage risk in Guoye town, Zhouqu County

1.
The third geological and Mineral Exploration Institute of Gansu Bureau of Geology and mineral resources, Gansu, Lanzhou　7300500
2.
Gansu provincial institute of Geological Environmental Monitoring, Gansu, Lanzhou　730050
3.
School of Lanzhou University geology and Mineral Resources, Gansu, Lanzhou　730030, China

摘要

摘要: 受降雨的影响，2 021年2月26日至28日，舟曲县果耶镇磨里滑坡发生蠕动变形，坡体裂缝发育，变形迹象明显，共造成92户402人受灾，直接经济损失约1 446.3万元。本文以舟曲县果耶镇磨里滑坡为研究对象，通过遥感解译、无人机航拍和地质勘察等方法，深入了解磨里滑坡所处的地质环境、土体物理力学性质等，对该滑坡的成因进行了详细分析、对滑坡的稳定进行了理论计算和位移监测分析。在野外调查和钻探分析的基础上，采用Massflow数值模型对舟曲县果耶镇磨里滑坡进行数值模拟与预测，确定物源区范围及厚度以预测滑坡的堆积过程以及堵江风险，预测了滑坡堵江的高度以及对上游和下游区域造成的危害。结果表明：（1）磨里滑坡呈长舌状，形态和变形清晰明显，滑体由碎石土和破碎千枚岩组成，平均深度40 m，总体积2 120×10⁴ m³，属特大型深层滑坡。（2）不利的地形条件、岩土体的软化、强烈的构造运动、降雨的入渗和前缘河水冲刷下切形成临空面是滑坡形成的主要因素。（3）该滑坡存在摧毁滑坡体房屋道路和堵江的风险，建议对受磨里滑坡威胁的居民尽快采取避险搬迁措施。本研究可为类似滑坡地质灾害链的成因机制和应急防控等提供参考。
- 特大型滑坡 /
- 成因分析 /
- 堵江数值模拟 /
- 危险性预测 /
- 舟曲县
Abstract: Due to the heavy rainfall, from February 26^th to 28^th 2021, the Moli landslide in Guoye Town, Zhouqu County, experienced creeping deformation with the development of slope cracks and obnious signs of deformation. A total of of 92 households with 402 people were affected, causing a direct economic loss of approximately 14.463 million yuan. This study focuses on the Moli landslide in Guoye Town, where the geological environment and physical and mechanical properties of the soil were deeply understood through remote sensing interpretation, aerial photography, and geological investigation. The cause of the landslide formation was analyzed in detail, and the stability of the landslide was calculated theoretically and analyzed for displacement monitoring. Based on field investigation and drilling analysis, the Massflow numerical model was used to simulate and predict the Moli landslide in Guoye Town, Zhouqu County. The range and thickness of the source area were determined to predict the accumulation process of the landslide and the risk of river blocking. The height of the river blocking and the harm caused by the landslide to the upstream and downstream regions were predicted. The results showed that: (1) Moli landslide is a super-large deep landslide with a long tongue shape, clear shape and deformation, and composed of broken phyllite and broken stone soil. The average depth of the slide body is 40m, and the total volume is 21.2 million square meters. (2) The main factors of landslide formation are unfavorable topographic conditions, softening of rock and soil, strong tectonic movement, rainfall infiltration, and front river erosion. (3) The landslide has the risk of destroying the landslide houses, roads, and blocking the river. It is suggested that the residents threatened by the Moli landslide should take measures to avoid danger and relocate as soon as possible. This study can provide reference for the formation mechanism and emergency prevention and control of similar landslide geological disaster chains.
- large-scale landslide /
- cause analysis /
- numerical simulation of river blocking /
- hazard prediction /
- Zhugqu County

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图 1 磨里滑坡平面图

Figure 1. Aeial View of the Moli landslide

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图 2 Ⅰ—Ⅰ′主剖面图

Figure 2. Geological cross-section map at section Ⅰ—Ⅰ′

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图 3 千枚岩碎屑

Figure 3. Site photo of the phyllite detritus

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图 4 累计位移-深度曲线图（ZK3）

Figure 4. Cumulative displacement-depth curve (ZK3)

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图 5 累计位移-深度曲线图（ZK11）

Figure 5. Cumulative displacement-depth curve (ZK11)

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图 6 累计位移-深度曲线图（ZK16）

Figure 6. Cumulative displacement-depth curve (ZK16)

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图 7 GNSS应急位移监测曲线

Figure 7. GNSS emergency displacement monitoring curve

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图 8 磨里滑坡降轨InSAR观测结果

Figure 8. InSAR observation results of the Moli landslide descending track

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图 9 不同情景下滑坡堆积厚度

Figure 9. The thickness of landslide accumulation under different scenarios

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图 10 不同情景下河道内滑坡坝堆积厚度Fig. 10 The thickness of landslide dam accumulation in river under different scenarios

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图 11 不同滑坡堆积结果的溃决洪水演进过程

Figure 11. Outburst flood evolution of landslides with different accumulation results

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图 12 不同滑坡堆积结果漫顶时流深

Figure 12. Flow depth at the top of landslide with different accumulation deposits

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表 1 滑块滑带土取值表

Table 1. Property table of the soils at slide block slip zone

状态	容重（ kN/m³）	强度指标	实验标准值	反演值	采用值
天然	18	内聚力C（KPa）	20.5	19.9	20.2
天然	18	内摩擦角φ（°）	16.3	15.9	16.1
饱和	24	内聚力C（KPa）	18.5	17.9	18.2
饱和	24	内摩擦角φ（°）	15.3	14.9	15.1

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表 2 滑坡体稳定性成果汇总表

Table 2. 2, Summary table of landslide stability results

计算工况	稳定系数	稳定状态
工况1：自重	1.070	基本稳定
工况2：自重+暴雨	0.925	不稳定
工况3：自重+地震	0.835	不稳定

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表 3 滑坡动力过程模拟假设情景与参数

Table 3. Simulation scenarios and parameters for landslide dynamic process

情景	滑带土含水率	粘聚力（KPa）	内摩擦角（°）
情景一	6%	54.79	35
情景二	18%	23.05	24
情景三	30%	0.21	15

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表 4 溃决洪水演进过程模拟假设情景与参数

Table 4. Simulation scenarios and parameters for evaluation of outburst flood

情景	河流流量（m³/s）	曼宁系数	抗剪强度系数	床负载系数	模拟时常（h）
情景四	20	0.04	0.13	1.5	15
情景五	15	0.04	0.13	1.5	15

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