基于有效降雨量的辽宁公路水毁风险评价

林毅; 马强; 张凯; 李岚; 李嘉宁; 陆井龙; 肇毓

doi:10.16031/j.cnki.issn.1003-8035.202212017

基于有效降雨量的辽宁公路水毁风险评价

doi: 10.16031/j.cnki.issn.1003-8035.202212017

林毅^1,,
马强²,
张凯¹,
李岚^1, ,,
李嘉宁¹,
陆井龙³,
肇毓⁴

1.
辽宁省气象服务中心，辽宁沈阳　110166
2.
辽宁省交通运输事业发展中心，辽宁沈阳　110005
3.
辽宁省气象台，辽宁沈阳　110166
4.
辽宁省高速公路运营管理有限责任公司，辽宁沈阳　110055

基金项目: 辽宁省气象服务中心山洪地质灾害防治气象保障工程 2020 年建设项目(公路气象灾害风险评估及服务系统建设)、2021年辽宁省地方标准《公路地质灾害气象风险预警等级评估》资助。

详细信息

作者简介:
林毅：林　毅（1985-），男，硕士，高级工程师，主要从事专业气象服务及机器学习方法在气象领域应用研究。E-mail:linyi_0330@163.com

通讯作者:
李　岚（1982-），女，硕士，高级工程师，研究方向为公共气象服务。E-mail：dy-pisces@163.com

中图分类号: U418.5+4;P426.616
计量
- 文章访问数: 1
- HTML全文浏览量: 0
- PDF下载量: 2
- 被引次数: 0
出版历程
- 收稿日期: 2022-12-28
- 录用日期: 2023-08-26
- 修回日期: 2023-07-19
- 网络出版日期: 2023-10-25

Assessment of road water damage risk in Liaoning Province based on effective rainfall

Yi LIN^1
,,
Qiang MA²,
Kai ZHANG¹,
Lan LI^{1
, ,},
Jianing LI¹,
Jinglong LU³,
Yu ZHAO⁴

1.
Liaoning Province Meteorological Service Center, Shenyang, Shenyang, Liaoning　110166, China
2.
Liaoning Transportation Development Center, Shenyang, Liaoning　110005, China
3.
Liaoning Meteorological Observatory, Shenyang, Liaoning　110166, China
4.
Liaoning Province Expressway Operation Administration Co., Ltd., , Shenyang, Liaoning　110055, China

摘要

摘要: 本文利用2017—2021年辽宁省降水诱发的高速公路、干线公路损毁记录数据，分析损毁事故发生的时间、空间特征，计算事故发生前有效雨量，并建立公路水毁概率拟合模型。结果表明：降水诱发的辽宁省公路损毁事件一般出现在5—10月，其中7—8月为高发期。公路水毁的发生时间呈现出从西北向东南逐渐延后的规律，事故数量与降水量有较高相关性。辽宁东部、西部为高发区域，丹东、朝阳、葫芦岛、本溪为省内高发地区。对比多种方法，公路水毁概率的拟合效果符合高斯分布概率密度函数。辽宁东部、南部致灾临界雨量值大于中部、北部，相同有效雨量条件下，平原地区发生公路水毁的风险高于以山地丘陵地区。利用2022年辽宁一次洪涝过程中公路水毁情况进行检验，综合评价结果具有较强的防汛指导作用。
- 公路水毁 /
- 致灾雨量 /
- 风险评价 /
- 辽宁省
Abstract: This paper utilizes data on the records of damage to expressways and main roads caused by precipitation in Liaoning Province from 2017 to 2021. It analyzes the temporal and spatial characteristics of damage accidents, calculates the effective rainfall before the occurrence of accidents, and establishes a probability fitting model for road water damage. The results show that precipitation-induced road damage events in Liaoning Province generally occur from May to October, with a peak in July and August. The occurrence of road water damage follows a pattern of gradually delaying from northwest to southeast, and the number of accidents is highly correlated with precipitation. The eastern and western parts of Liaoning are high-incidence areas, with Dandong, Chaoyang, Huludao, and Benxi being the high-incidence areas within the province. Among various methods compared, the fitting effect of the road water damage probability conforms to the Gaussian distribution probability density function. The critical rainfall threshold for disaster in the eastern and southern parts of Liaoning is higher than that in the central and northern parts. Under the same effective rainfall conditions, the risk of road water damage in plain areas is higher than in mountainous and hilly areas. The road water damage situation during a flooding process in Liaoning in 2022 is used for verification, indicating a strong role in flood control guidance.
- road water damage /
- critical rainfall /
- risk assessment /
- Liaoning Province

HTML全文

图 1 降水诱发的辽宁公路水毁灾害分布

Figure 1. Distribution of precipitation-induced highway flood damage in Liaoning Province

下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片

图 2 辽宁气象地理分区

Figure 2. Meteorological geographic regions of Liaoning province

下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片

图 3 辽宁公路水毁灾害发生数量及降水量

Figure 3. Highway flood damage and precipitation statistics in Liaoning province

下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片

图 4 辽宁省各分区公路水毁灾害发生数量

Figure 4. Road flood damage and precipitation statistics in each Liaoning meteorological geographic region

下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片

图 5 公路水毁降水致灾概率拟合结果

Figure 5. Fitting curves of probability density of highway flood damage and precipitation factor

下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片

图 6 公路水毁位置及风险评价结果

Figure 6. Location and risk assessments of highway flood damage

下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片

表 1 高斯拟合方程参数表

Table 1. Parameters of probability fitting equation for each region

参数	东部	南部	西部	北部	中部
u	3.159	3.193	3.082	3.081	3.076
$ \sigma $	0.367	0.465	0.366	0.272	0.316

下载: 导出CSV

表 2 三种拟合方法的确定系数

Table 2. Determination coefficients of three fitting methods

分区	高斯拟合	二次多项式	三次多项式
辽宁东部	0.970	0.566	0.810
辽宁南部	0.671	0.554	0.643
辽宁西部	0.886	0.496	0.679
辽宁北部	0.881	0.455	0.572
辽宁中部	0.769	0.733	0.735

下载: 导出CSV

表 3 降水风险等级及致灾概率对应临界雨量（mm）

Table 3. Corresponding critical rainfall for precipitation risk levels and disaster probability（mm）

分区	较低风险（20%）	中等风险（40%）	较高风险（60%）	极高风险（80%）
东部	66.0	88.4	111.9	144.7
南部	61.7	89.5	120.3	165.3
西部	59.2	79.8	101.6	132.1
北部	64.9	80.8	96.7	118.0
中部	62.3	80.5	99.2	124.8

下载: 导出CSV

表 4 公路水毁点位数量及所在风险区

Table 4. Statistics of highway flood damage points and risk levels

日期	27日	28日	29日	30日
低风险	—	—	1	—
较低风险	—	—	3	—
中等风险	—	1	3	1
较高风险	—	2	24	1
极高风险	—	—	12	—

下载: 导出CSV

参考文献(26)

[1]	王振刚,赵甫. 公路沿线地质灾害孕灾环境与诱灾因子分析[J]. 水利与建筑工程学报,2020,18(5):85 − 90. [WANG Zhengang,ZHAO Fu. Geological-disaster environment and disaster-inducing factors along the highway in mountain area[J]. Journal of Water Resources and Architectural Engineering,2020,18(5):85 − 90. (in Chinese with English abstract) WANG Zhengang, ZHAO Fu. Geological-disaster environment and disaster-inducing factors along the highway in mountain area［J］. Journal of Water Resources and Architectural Engineering, 2020, 18（5）: 85 − 90. （in Chinese with English abstract）
[2]	赵建军. 公路边坡稳定性快速评价方法及应用研究[D]. 成都:成都理工大学,2007. [ZHAO Jianjun. Study and application on rapid slope stability evaluation method for highway[D]. Chengdu:Chengdu University of Technology,2007. (in Chinese with English abstract) ZHAO Jianjun. Study and application on rapid slope stability evaluation method for highway［D］. Chengdu: Chengdu University of Technology, 2007. （in Chinese with English abstract）
[3]	杨志华,吴瑞安,郭长宝,等. 川西巴塘断裂带地质灾害效应与典型滑坡发育特征[J]. 中国地质,2022,49(2):355 − 368. [YANG Zhihua,WU Ruian,GUO Changbao,et al. Geo-hazard effects and typical landslide characteristics of the Batang fault zone in the western Sichuan[J]. Geology in China,2022,49(2):355 − 368. (in Chinese with English abstract) YANG Zhihua, WU Ruian, GUO Changbao, et al. Geo-hazard effects and typical landslide characteristics of the Batang fault zone in the western Sichuan［J］. Geology in China, 2022, 49（2）: 355 − 368. （in Chinese with English abstract）
[4]	刘艳辉,方然可,苏永超,等. 基于机器学习的区域滑坡灾害预警模型研究[J]. 工程地质学报,2021,29(1):116 − 124. [LIU Yanhui,FANG Ranke,SU Yongchao,et al. Machine learning based model for warning of regional landslide disasters[J]. Journal of Engineering Geology,2021,29(1):116 − 124. (in Chinese with English abstract) LIU Yanhui, FANG Ranke, SU Yongchao, et al. Machine learning based model for warning of regional landslide disasters［J］. Journal of Engineering Geology, 2021, 29（1）: 116 − 124. （in Chinese with English abstract）
[5]	祝建,朱冬春,刘卫民. 川藏公路(西藏境)地质灾害类型与分布规律研究[J]. 灾害学,2018,33(增刊1):18 − 24. [ZHU Jian,ZHU Dongchun,LIU Weimin. Types and distribution of geological hazards in Sichuan Tibet highway (tibet border)[J]. Journal of Catastrophology,2018,33(Sup 1):18 − 24. (in Chinese with English abstract) ZHU Jian, ZHU Dongchun, LIU Weimin. Types and distribution of geological hazards in Sichuan Tibet highway （tibet border）［J］. Journal of Catastrophology, 2018, 33（Sup 1）: 18 − 24. （in Chinese with English abstract）
[6]	于秀珍,牟瑞芳. 雅康高速公路沿线地质灾害分布特征及影响因素分析[J]. 安全与环境学报,2022,22(2):876 − 884. [YU Xiuzhen,MOU Ruifang. Distribution characteristics and influencing factors of geological disasters along Yakang Expressway[J]. Journal of Safety and Environment,2022,22(2):876 − 884. (in Chinese with English abstract) YU Xiuzhen, MOU Ruifang. Distribution characteristics and influencing factors of geological disasters along Yakang Expressway［J］. Journal of Safety and Environment, 2022, 22（2）: 876 − 884. （in Chinese with English abstract）
[7]	李守定,乔华,马世伟,等. 基于温度-降雨双参数的新疆地质灾害预警模型[J]. 水利水电技术(中英文),2021,52(11):207 − 218. [LI Shouding,QIAO Hua,MA Shiwei,et al. Temperature-rainfall dual parameter-based early warning model for geological disasters in Xinjiang[J]. Water Resources and Hydropower Engineering,2021,52(11):207 − 218. (in Chinese with English abstract) LI Shouding, QIAO Hua, MA Shiwei, et al. Temperature-rainfall dual parameter-based early warning model for geological disasters in Xinjiang［J］. Water Resources and Hydropower Engineering, 2021, 52（11）: 207 − 218. （in Chinese with English abstract）
[8]	狄靖月,王志,田华,等. 降水引发的西南地区公路损毁风险预报方法[J]. 应用气象学报,2015,26(3):268 − 279. [DI Jingyue,WANG Zhi,TIAN Hua,et al. A risk forecast method for southwest road damages based on precipitation[J]. Journal of Applied Meteorological Science,2015,26(3):268 − 279. (in Chinese with English abstract) DI Jingyue, WANG Zhi, TIAN Hua, et al. A risk forecast method for southwest road damages based on precipitation［J］. Journal of Applied Meteorological Science, 2015, 26（3）: 268 − 279. （in Chinese with English abstract）
[9]	王志,田华,狄靖月,等. 降水引发的中国公路损毁灾害时空变化特征[J]. 气象与环境学报,2018,34(4):98 − 104. [WANG Zhi,TIAN Hua,DI Jingyue,et al. Research on the tempo-spatial characteristics of road damage induced by precipitation in China[J]. Journal of Meteorology and Environment,2018,34(4):98 − 104. (in Chinese with English abstract) WANG Zhi, TIAN Hua, DI Jingyue, et al. Research on the tempo-spatial characteristics of road damage induced by precipitation in China［J］. Journal of Meteorology and Environment, 2018, 34（4）: 98 − 104. （in Chinese with English abstract）
[10]	曲雪妍,李媛,杨旭东,等. 中国地质灾害总体特征与形势分析[J]. 中国地质灾害与防治学报,2016,27(4):109 − 113. [QU Xueyan,LI Yuan,YANG Xudong,et al. The general characteristics and situation analysis of geo-hazards in China[J]. The Chinese Journal of Geological Hazard and Control,2016,27(4):109 − 113. (in Chinese with English abstract) QU Xueyan, LI Yuan, YANG Xudong, et al. The general characteristics and situation analysis of geo-hazards in China［J］. The Chinese Journal of Geological Hazard and Control, 2016, 27（4）: 109 − 113. （in Chinese with English abstract）
[11]	辽宁省国土资源厅. 辽宁省地质灾害防治规划[Z]. 2018. Department of Land and Resources of Liaoning Province[Z]. Shenyang:Liaoning Province Geological Disaster Prevention and Control Plan,2018.
[12]	殷坤龙,张桂荣. 地质灾害风险区划与综合防治对策[J]. 安全与环境工程,2003,10(1):32 − 35. [YIN Kunlong,ZHANG Guirong. Risk zonation of geo-hazards and its comprehensive control[J]. Safety and Environmental Engineering,2003,10(1):32 − 35. (in Chinese with English abstract) YIN Kunlong, ZHANG Guirong. Risk zonation of geo-hazards and its comprehensive control［J］. Safety and Environmental Engineering, 2003, 10（1）: 32 − 35. （in Chinese with English abstract）
[13]	CROZIER M J. Landslides:causes,consequences,and environment[M]. London:Croom Helm,1986.
[14]	中国气象局. 暴雨诱发的地质灾害气象风险预警等级:QX/T 487—2019[S]. 北京:气象出版社,2019. [China Meteorological Bureau of the People’s Republic of China. Meteorological risk early warning levels of geological disaster induced by torrential rain:QX/T 487—2019[S]. Beijing:China Meteorological Press,2019. (in Chinese) China Meteorological Bureau of the People’s Republic of China. Meteorological risk early warning levels of geological disaster induced by torrential rain: QX/T 487—2019［S］. Beijing: China Meteorological Press, 2019. （in Chinese）
[15]	狄靖月,许凤雯,李宇梅,等. 东南地区引发地质灾害降水分型及阈值分析[J]. 灾害学,2019,34(1):62 − 67. [DI Jingyue,XU Fengwen,LI Yumei,et al. Precipitation type and threshold analysis of geological disasters in southeast[J]. Journal of Catastrophology,2019,34(1):62 − 67. (in Chinese with English abstract) DI Jingyue, XU Fengwen, LI Yumei, et al. Precipitation type and threshold analysis of geological disasters in southeast［J］. Journal of Catastrophology, 2019, 34（1）: 62 − 67. （in Chinese with English abstract）
[16]	陈静静,姚蓉,文强,等. 湖南省降雨型地质灾害致灾雨量阈值分析[J]. 灾害学,2014,29(2):42 − 47. [CHEN Jingjing,YAO Rong,WEN Qiang,et al. Hazard rainfall threshold analysis of rainfall-induced geological disasters in Hunan Province[J]. Journal of Catastrophology,2014,29(2):42 − 47. (in Chinese with English abstract) CHEN Jingjing, YAO Rong, WEN Qiang, et al. Hazard rainfall threshold analysis of rainfall-induced geological disasters in Hunan Province［J］. Journal of Catastrophology, 2014, 29（2）: 42 − 47. （in Chinese with English abstract）
[17]	陈力强,韩秀君,张立祥. 基于MM5模式的站点降水预报释用方法研究[J]. 气象科技,2003,31(5):268 − 272. [CHEN Liqiang,HAN Xiujun,ZHANG Lixiang. Study of station precipitation forecasting method based on MM5 model output[J]. Meteorological Science and Technology,2003,31(5):268 − 272. (in Chinese with English abstract) doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1671-6345.2003.05.003 CHEN Liqiang, HAN Xiujun, ZHANG Lixiang. Study of station precipitation forecasting method based on MM5 model output［J］. Meteorological Science and Technology, 2003, 31（5）: 268 − 272. （in Chinese with English abstract） doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1671-6345.2003.05.003
[18]	张若凝. 辽宁省降雨型泥石流易发区评价及预测预警[D]. 大连:辽宁师范大学,2022. [ZHANG Ruoning. Evaluation and prediction of debris flow susceptibility in Liaoning Province[D]. Dalian:Liaoning Normal University,2022. (in Chinese with English abstract) ZHANG Ruoning. Evaluation and prediction of debris flow susceptibility in Liaoning Province［D］. Dalian: Liaoning Normal University, 2022. （in Chinese with English abstract）
[19]	LIANG Xinzhong,WANG W C. Associations between China monsoon rainfall and tropospheric jets[J]. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society,1998,124(552):2597 − 2623. doi: 10.1002/qj.49712455204
[20]	公颖,周小珊,董博. 辽宁夏季降水时空分布特征及其成因分析[J]. 暴雨灾害,2018,37(4):373 − 382. [GONG Ying,ZHOU Xiaoshan,DONG Bo. The characteristic analysis and the research on the mechanism of the summer precipitation in Liaoning Province[J]. Torrential Rain and Disasters,2018,37(4):373 − 382. (in Chinese with English abstract) doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1004-9045.2018.04.010 GONG Ying, ZHOU Xiaoshan, DONG Bo. The characteristic analysis and the research on the mechanism of the summer precipitation in Liaoning Province［J］. Torrential Rain and Disasters, 2018, 37（4）: 373 − 382. （in Chinese with English abstract） doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1004-9045.2018.04.010
[21]	王高峰,高幼龙,姚亚辉,等. 甘肃省白龙江流域降雨型潜在泥石流危险性预报模型[J]. 中国地质,2022,49(3):732 − 748. [WANG Gaofeng,GAO Youlong,YAO Yahui,et al. Prediction model of potential debris flow hazard of rainfall type in Bailong River Basin,Gansu Province[J]. Geology in China,2022,49(3):732 − 748. (in Chinese with English abstract) WANG Gaofeng, GAO Youlong, YAO Yahui, et al. Prediction model of potential debris flow hazard of rainfall type in Bailong River Basin, Gansu Province［J］. Geology in China, 2022, 49（3）: 732 − 748. （in Chinese with English abstract）
[22]	LI Jie,CHEN Jianbing. The principle of preservation of probability and the generalized density evolution equation[J]. Structural Safety,2008,30(1):65 − 77. doi: 10.1016/j.strusafe.2006.08.001
[23]	张国平. 有效雨量和滑坡泥石流灾害概率模型[J]. 气象,2014,40(7):886 − 890. [ZHANG Guoping. Study on the relation between effective precipitation and landslide/debris-flow with probabilistic model[J]. Meteorological Monthly,2014,40(7):886 − 890. (in Chinese with English abstract) ZHANG Guoping. Study on the relation between effective precipitation and landslide/debris-flow with probabilistic model［J］. Meteorological Monthly, 2014, 40（7）: 886 − 890. （in Chinese with English abstract）
[24]	李宇梅,狄靖月,许凤雯,等. 基于当日临界雨量的国家级地质灾害风险预警方法[J]. 气象科技进展,2018,8(3):77 − 83. [LI Yumei,DI Jingyue,XU Fengwen,et al. A risk warning method based on the intraday critical precipitation for national geological disaster[J]. Advances in Meteorological Science and Technology,2018,8(3):77 − 83. (in Chinese with English abstract) LI Yumei, DI Jingyue, XU Fengwen, et al. A risk warning method based on the intraday critical precipitation for national geological disaster［J］. Advances in Meteorological Science and Technology, 2018, 8（3）: 77 − 83. （in Chinese with English abstract）
[25]	李忠燕,田其博,左晋,等. 贵州省降雨型滑坡预报模型及检验[J]. 沙漠与绿洲气象,2022,16(3):47 − 53. [LI Zhongyan,TIAN Qibo,ZUO Jin,et al. Validation of forecast model for rainfall-induced landslides in Guizhou Province[J]. Desert and Oasis Meteorology,2022,16(3):47 − 53. (in Chinese with English abstract) LI Zhongyan, TIAN Qibo, ZUO Jin, et al. Validation of forecast model for rainfall-induced landslides in Guizhou Province［J］. Desert and Oasis Meteorology, 2022, 16（3）: 47 − 53. （in Chinese with English abstract）
[26]	李宇梅,杨寅,狄靖月,等. 全国地质灾害气象风险精细化网格预报方法及其应用[J]. 气象,2020,46(10):1310 − 1319. [LI Yumei,YANG Yin,DI Jingyue,et al. Meteorological risk assessment method of geological disaster in China and its mesh refinement application[J]. Meteorological Monthly,2020,46(10):1310 − 1319. (in Chinese with English abstract) LI Yumei, YANG Yin, DI Jingyue, et al. Meteorological risk assessment method of geological disaster in China and its mesh refinement application［J］. Meteorological Monthly, 2020, 46（10）: 1310 − 1319. （in Chinese with English abstract）

施引文献

资源附件(0)

访问统计

点击查看大图

图(6) / 表(4)

计量

文章访问数: 1
HTML全文浏览量: 0
PDF下载量: 2
被引次数: 0

姓名
邮箱
手机号码
标题
留言内容
验证码

留言板

基于有效降雨量的辽宁公路水毁风险评价

doi: 10.16031/j.cnki.issn.1003-8035.202212017

作者简介:
林毅：林　毅（1985-），男，硕士，高级工程师，主要从事专业气象服务及机器学习方法在气象领域应用研究。E-mail:linyi_0330@163.com

通讯作者:
李　岚（1982-），女，硕士，高级工程师，研究方向为公共气象服务。E-mail：dy-pisces@163.com

计量

Assessment of road water damage risk in Liaoning Province based on effective rainfall

计量

目录

友情链接：

留言板

基于有效降雨量的辽宁公路水毁风险评价

doi: 10.16031/j.cnki.issn.1003-8035.202212017

作者简介: 林毅：林 毅（1985-），男，硕士，高级工程师，主要从事专业气象服务及机器学习方法在气象领域应用研究。E-mail:linyi_0330@163.com

通讯作者: 李 岚（1982-），女，硕士，高级工程师，研究方向为公共气象服务。E-mail：dy-pisces@163.com

计量

出版历程

Assessment of road water damage risk in Liaoning Province based on effective rainfall

计量

出版历程

目录

友情链接：

作者简介:
林毅：林　毅（1985-），男，硕士，高级工程师，主要从事专业气象服务及机器学习方法在气象领域应用研究。E-mail:linyi_0330@163.com

通讯作者:
李　岚（1982-），女，硕士，高级工程师，研究方向为公共气象服务。E-mail：dy-pisces@163.com