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基于有效降雨量的辽宁公路水毁风险评价

林毅 马强 张凯 李岚 李嘉宁 陆井龙 肇毓

林毅,马强,张凯,等. 基于有效降雨量的辽宁公路水毁风险评价[J]. 中国地质灾害与防治学报,2023,34(0): 1-9 doi: 10.16031/j.cnki.issn.1003-8035.202212017
引用本文: 林毅,马强,张凯,等. 基于有效降雨量的辽宁公路水毁风险评价[J]. 中国地质灾害与防治学报,2023,34(0): 1-9 doi: 10.16031/j.cnki.issn.1003-8035.202212017
LIN Yi,MA Qiang,ZHANG Kai,et al. Assessment of road water damage risk in Liaoning Province based on effective rainfall[J]. The Chinese Journal of Geological Hazard and Control,2023,34(0): 1-9 doi: 10.16031/j.cnki.issn.1003-8035.202212017
Citation: LIN Yi,MA Qiang,ZHANG Kai,et al. Assessment of road water damage risk in Liaoning Province based on effective rainfall[J]. The Chinese Journal of Geological Hazard and Control,2023,34(0): 1-9 doi: 10.16031/j.cnki.issn.1003-8035.202212017

基于有效降雨量的辽宁公路水毁风险评价

doi: 10.16031/j.cnki.issn.1003-8035.202212017
基金项目: 辽宁省气象服务中心山洪地质灾害防治气象保障工程 2020 年建设项目(公路气象灾害风险评估及服务系统建设)、2021年辽宁省地方标准《公路地质灾害气象风险预警等级评估》资助。
详细信息
    作者简介:

    林毅:林 毅(1985-),男,硕士,高级工程师,主要从事专业气象服务及机器学习方法在气象领域应用研究。E-mail:linyi_0330@163.com

    通讯作者:

    李 岚(1982-),女,硕士,高级工程师,研究方向为公共气象服务。E-mail:dy-pisces@163.com

  • 中图分类号: U418.5+4;P426.616

Assessment of road water damage risk in Liaoning Province based on effective rainfall

  • 摘要: 本文利用2017—2021年辽宁省降水诱发的高速公路、干线公路损毁记录数据,分析损毁事故发生的时间、空间特征,计算事故发生前有效雨量,并建立公路水毁概率拟合模型。结果表明:降水诱发的辽宁省公路损毁事件一般出现在5—10月,其中7—8月为高发期。公路水毁的发生时间呈现出从西北向东南逐渐延后的规律,事故数量与降水量有较高相关性。辽宁东部、西部为高发区域,丹东、朝阳、葫芦岛、本溪为省内高发地区。对比多种方法,公路水毁概率的拟合效果符合高斯分布概率密度函数。辽宁东部、南部致灾临界雨量值大于中部、北部,相同有效雨量条件下,平原地区发生公路水毁的风险高于以山地丘陵地区。利用2022年辽宁一次洪涝过程中公路水毁情况进行检验,综合评价结果具有较强的防汛指导作用。
  • 图  1  降水诱发的辽宁公路水毁灾害分布

    Figure  1.  Distribution of precipitation-induced highway flood damage in Liaoning Province

    图  2  辽宁气象地理分区

    Figure  2.  Meteorological geographic regions of Liaoning province

    图  3  辽宁公路水毁灾害发生数量及降水量

    Figure  3.  Highway flood damage and precipitation statistics in Liaoning province

    图  4  辽宁省各分区公路水毁灾害发生数量

    Figure  4.  Road flood damage and precipitation statistics in each Liaoning meteorological geographic region

    图  5  公路水毁降水致灾概率拟合结果

    Figure  5.  Fitting curves of probability density of highway flood damage and precipitation factor

    图  6  公路水毁位置及风险评价结果

    Figure  6.  Location and risk assessments of highway flood damage

    表  1  高斯拟合方程参数表

    Table  1.   Parameters of probability fitting equation for each region

    参数东部南部西部北部中部
    u3.1593.1933.0823.0813.076
    $ \sigma $0.3670.4650.3660.2720.316
    下载: 导出CSV

    表  2  三种拟合方法的确定系数

    Table  2.   Determination coefficients of three fitting methods

    分区高斯拟合二次多项式三次多项式
    辽宁东部0.9700.5660.810
    辽宁南部0.6710.5540.643
    辽宁西部0.8860.4960.679
    辽宁北部0.8810.4550.572
    辽宁中部0.7690.7330.735
    下载: 导出CSV

    表  3  降水风险等级及致灾概率对应临界雨量(mm)

    Table  3.   Corresponding critical rainfall for precipitation risk levels and disaster probability(mm)

    分区较低风险(20%)中等风险(40%)较高风险(60%)极高风险(80%)
    东部66.088.4111.9144.7
    南部61.789.5120.3165.3
    西部59.279.8101.6132.1
    北部64.980.896.7118.0
    中部62.380.599.2124.8
    下载: 导出CSV

    表  4  公路水毁点位数量及所在风险区

    Table  4.   Statistics of highway flood damage points and risk levels

    日期27日28日29日30日
    低风险1
    较低风险3
    中等风险131
    较高风险2241
    极高风险12
    下载: 导出CSV
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  • 收稿日期:  2022-12-28
  • 录用日期:  2023-08-26
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