Landslide early warning based on improved tangential angle and displacement rate: A case study of the leijiashan landslide in Shimen county, Hunan province
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摘要: 为了研究湖南省滑坡监测预警方法,提高预警成功率,以石门县雷家山滑坡为例展开研究。通过对灾害现场进行详细地质调查,本文对滑坡特征进行了描述,初步阐述了滑坡发生的成因机理。研究结果表明,独特的地形地貌、结构松散的土体是滑坡形成的内在因素,强降雨和工程切坡活动是导致滑坡的外因。基于GNSS系统获取滑坡的全过程变形-时间曲线,并对变形曲线特征进行分析,发现该滑坡具有明显的初始变形、等速变形、加速变形三阶段演化特征,属于渐变型滑坡。将切线角和变形速率阈值作为滑坡预警的重要指标,建立了预警判据,并对接群防群测信息平台,可以为相关部门展开防灾减灾工作和应急响应提供直接依据。雷家山滑坡实现成功避险,验证了该监测预警方法的实用价值。Abstract: To study landslide monitoring and early warning methods in Hunan province, and to improve the success rate of early warning, the Leijiashan landslide in Shimen county is used as a representative case. Through a detailed site investigation, this paper describes the characteristics of the landslide and provides a comprehensive analysis of its failure mechanism. The results reveal that the unique landscape and loose soil structure are internal factors contributing to the occurrence of the landslide, while heavy rainfall and the engineering excavation are external factors. By utilizing the GNSS system, complete displacement-time curves are obtained, and the types and features of these curves are analyzed to identify the evolutionary characteristics of the landslide, which include three stages: initial deformation, constant deformation, and accelerated deformation. Therefore, the landslide is classified as a gradual change type. By using the tangent angle and deformation rate thresholds as important indicators for landslide early warning, an early warning criterion is established. It is integrated with the community-based disaster prevention and early warning information platform, providing direct evidence for relevant departments to carry out disaster prevention, reduction, and emergency response. Successful mitigation of the Leijiashan landslide validates the practicality of this monitoring and early warning method.
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表 1 基于切线角阈值和变形速率综合预警判据
Table 1. Comprehensive early warning criteria based on tangential angle threshold and deformation rate
预警级别 注意级 警示级 警戒级 警报级 预报形式 蓝色 黄色 橙色 红色 变形阶段 等速变形阶段 初加速变形阶段 中加速变形阶段 临滑阶段 切线角 α≈45° 45°<α<80° 80°≤α<85° α≥85° 速率 20 mm/h 25~104 mm/h 144~266 mm/h >300 mm/h 滑坡变形时间 5月27日-6月13日 6月14日-6月25日 6月26日-7月1日 7月2日-7月6日 -
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