基于改进切线角和变形速率的滑坡预警

陈全明; 黄炜敏; 李娇

doi:10.16031/j.cnki.issn.1003-8035.202303041

基于改进切线角和变形速率的滑坡预警

doi: 10.16031/j.cnki.issn.1003-8035.202303041

湖南省自然资源事务中心，湖南长沙　410118

基金项目: 湖南省2019年自然资源科研（地方标准）项目和科技创新平台建设及科普基地建设资金(湘财建二指〔2019〕14号)

详细信息

作者简介:
陈全明（1984-），男，土家族，湖南，硕士，高级工程师，主要从事地质灾害监测预警和调查评价工作。E-mail：285440219@qq.com

通讯作者:
黄炜敏（1977-），男，汉族，湖南，硕士，高级工程师，主要从事地质灾害监测预警工作。E-mail：64854978@qq.com

中图分类号: P642.22
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出版历程
- 收稿日期: 2023-03-18
- 录用日期: 2023-07-10
- 修回日期: 2023-06-05
- 网络出版日期: 2023-07-14

Landslide early warning based on improved tangential angle and displacement rate: A case study of the leijiashan landslide in Shimen county, Hunan province

Hunan Center of Natural Resources Affairs, Changsha　410118, Hunan

摘要

摘要: 为了研究湖南省滑坡监测预警方法，提高预警成功率，以石门县雷家山滑坡为例展开研究。通过对灾害现场进行详细地质调查，本文对滑坡特征进行了描述，初步阐述了滑坡发生的成因机理。研究结果表明，独特的地形地貌、结构松散的土体是滑坡形成的内在因素，强降雨和工程切坡活动是导致滑坡的外因。基于GNSS系统获取滑坡的全过程变形－时间曲线，并对变形曲线特征进行分析，发现该滑坡具有明显的初始变形、等速变形、加速变形三阶段演化特征，属于渐变型滑坡。将切线角和变形速率阈值作为滑坡预警的重要指标，建立了预警判据，并对接群防群测信息平台，可以为相关部门展开防灾减灾工作和应急响应提供直接依据。雷家山滑坡实现成功避险，验证了该监测预警方法的实用价值。
- 滑坡 /
- 成功避险 /
- 预警判据 /
- 改进切线角 /
- 变形-时间曲线 /
- 人技融合
Abstract: To study landslide monitoring and early warning methods in Hunan province, and to improve the success rate of early warning, the Leijiashan landslide in Shimen county is used as a representative case. Through a detailed site investigation, this paper describes the characteristics of the landslide and provides a comprehensive analysis of its failure mechanism. The results reveal that the unique landscape and loose soil structure are internal factors contributing to the occurrence of the landslide, while heavy rainfall and the engineering excavation are external factors. By utilizing the GNSS system, complete displacement-time curves are obtained, and the types and features of these curves are analyzed to identify the evolutionary characteristics of the landslide, which include three stages: initial deformation, constant deformation, and accelerated deformation. Therefore, the landslide is classified as a gradual change type. By using the tangent angle and deformation rate thresholds as important indicators for landslide early warning, an early warning criterion is established. It is integrated with the community-based disaster prevention and early warning information platform, providing direct evidence for relevant departments to carry out disaster prevention, reduction, and emergency response. Successful mitigation of the Leijiashan landslide validates the practicality of this monitoring and early warning method.
- landslide /
- successful mitigation /
- early warning criterion /
- improved tangential angle /
- displacement-time curve /
- human-technology integration

HTML全文

图 1 研究区位置概况

Figure 1. Overview of research area location

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图 2 灾后滑坡全貌

Figure 2. Overall comprehensive view of post-disaster landslide

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图 3 滑面特征及滑体物质组成

Figure 3. Characteristic of sliding surface and composition of sliding mass

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图 4 灾前滑坡变形特征

Figure 4. Pre-disaster landslide deformation characteristics

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图 5 地下水和降雨关系曲线图

Figure 5. Relationship graph of rainfall and groundwater

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图 6 滑坡监测系统布置

Figure 6. Arrangement of landslide monitoring system

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图 7 2号GNSS累计位移和降雨关系曲线图

Figure 7. Comprehensive curve of cumulative displacement and rainfall relationship for GNSS No. 2

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图 8 滑坡切线角和变形速率变化规律

Figure 8. Incremental variations in landslide tangential angle and deformation rate

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图 9 人技融合预警发布流程

Figure 9. Schematic flowchart of human-technology integration for early warning publication

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表 1 基于切线角阈值和变形速率综合预警判据

Table 1. Comprehensive early warning criteria based on tangential angle threshold and deformation rate

预警级别	注意级	警示级	警戒级	警报级
预报形式	蓝色	黄色	橙色	红色
变形阶段	等速变形阶段	初加速变形阶段	中加速变形阶段	临滑阶段
切线角	α≈45°	45°<α<80°	80°≤α<85°	α≥85°
速率	20 mm/h	25～104 mm/h	144～266 mm/h	>300 mm/h
滑坡变形时间	5月27日-6月13日	6月14日-6月25日	6月26日-7月1日	7月2日-7月6日

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