ISSN 1003-8035 CN 11-2852/P
  • 中国科技核心期刊
  • CSCD收录期刊
  • Caj-cd规范获奖期刊
欢迎扫码关注“i环境微平台”

留言板

尊敬的读者、作者、审稿人, 关于本刊的投稿、审稿、编辑和出版的任何问题, 您可以本页添加留言。我们将尽快给您答复。谢谢您的支持!

姓名
邮箱
手机号码
标题
留言内容
验证码

云南省哀牢山区地质灾害因子敏感性和易发性评价

杨文礼 白光顺 孙滨 张卫锋 杨雪梅

杨文礼,白光顺,孙滨,等. 云南省哀牢山区地质灾害因子敏感性和易发性评价−以新平县为例[J]. 中国地质灾害与防治学报,2023,34(0): 1-8 doi: 10.16031/j.cnki.issn.1003-8035.202303055
引用本文: 杨文礼,白光顺,孙滨,等. 云南省哀牢山区地质灾害因子敏感性和易发性评价−以新平县为例[J]. 中国地质灾害与防治学报,2023,34(0): 1-8 doi: 10.16031/j.cnki.issn.1003-8035.202303055
YANG Wenli,BAI Guangshun,SUN Bin,et al. Sensitivity and Susceptibility Assessment of Geological Hazard Factors in the Ailao Mountain Region of Yunnan province, China ——A case study of Xinping County[J]. The Chinese Journal of Geological Hazard and Control,2023,34(0): 1-8 doi: 10.16031/j.cnki.issn.1003-8035.202303055
Citation: YANG Wenli,BAI Guangshun,SUN Bin,et al. Sensitivity and Susceptibility Assessment of Geological Hazard Factors in the Ailao Mountain Region of Yunnan province, China ——A case study of Xinping County[J]. The Chinese Journal of Geological Hazard and Control,2023,34(0): 1-8 doi: 10.16031/j.cnki.issn.1003-8035.202303055

云南省哀牢山区地质灾害因子敏感性和易发性评价

doi: 10.16031/j.cnki.issn.1003-8035.202303055
基金项目: 云南省地质灾害综合防治体系建设专项计划(2013-2020)。
详细信息
    作者简介:

    杨文礼(1969-),男,云南华坪,高级工程师,开展地质灾害调查和防治研究工作。E-mail:516441283@qq.com

    通讯作者:

    白光顺(1986-),男,山东巨野,博士研究生,主要从事工程地质理论和应用研究。E-mail: baiguangshun@foxmail.com

  • 中图分类号: P208;P694

Sensitivity and Susceptibility Assessment of Geological Hazard Factors in the Ailao Mountain Region of Yunnan province, China ——A case study of Xinping County

  • 摘要: 针对地质灾害敏感因子选取和易发性评价问题,为寻求适宜云南省哀牢山区危险性分区方法,论文选择新平县为典型研究区,选择了工程地质岩组、距断裂距离、海拔、坡度、坡向、距水系距离、道路缓冲区和地类等因子,应用证据权计算法,进行了地质灾害因子敏感分析和易发性评价。评价结果显示地质灾害高易发区面积1532.94 km2、灾点占比74.06%;中易发区面积2119.07 km2、灾点占比24.68%;评价结果与历史地质灾害空间分布特征相符,证明了此次所选取的评价因子和评价模型的合理性,支持云南省哀牢山区灾害防治。
  • 图  1  因素基础数据图

    Figure  1.  Fundamental factor data chart

    图  2  各因素分级分区和地灾点数量相关性统计图

    Figure  2.  Correlation statistical charts between factor grading zones and the number of geological hazard points

    图  3  因素证据权重计算结果图

    Figure  3.  Calculation results charts of factor evidence weights

    图  4  模型预测性能ROC曲线图

    Figure  4.  ROC curve for model predictive performance

    图  5  地质灾害易发性分类图

    Figure  5.  Geological hazard susceptibility classification map

    表  1  数据简介

    Table  1.   Data overview introduction

    数据 灾点及
    致灾要素
    类型 来源
    地灾地灾点矢量点地质灾害历年调查数据
    地质工程地质岩组矢量面区域地质调查报告[14]
    距断裂距离矢量线和缓冲区区域地质调查报告[14]
    地形地貌高程栅格12.5 m DEM,https://asf.alaska.edu/
    坡度栅格根据DEM,应用ArcGIS提取
    坡向栅格根据DEM,应用ArcGIS提取
    道路距道路距离矢量线缓冲区根据矢量线用ArcGIS制作
    水系距水系距离矢量线缓冲区根据矢量线用ArcGIS制作
    土地类型地类栅格ESA WorldCover 10 m 2020,
    https://esa-worldcover.org/en
    下载: 导出CSV

    表  2  因素证据权重计算结果表

    Table  2.   Results of factor evidence weight calculation


    因素分级 因素分级
    面积百分
    比(%)
    灾点数
    百分比
    (%)
    β W+ W Wf
    因素分级 因素分级
    面积百分
    比(%)
    灾点数
    百分比
    (%)
    β W+ W Wf



    块状次硬岩组(A) 9.92 23.94 2.41 0.8824 −0.1693 0.7131
    <8° 10.63 10.47 0.98 −0.0144 0.0017 −0.0127
    块状次软岩组(B) 13.32 3.49 0.26 −1.3393 0.1075 −1.2319 8-15° 25.22 30.92 1.23 0.2041 −0.0794 0.1247
    层状软硬岩组(C) 74.45 69.83 0.94 −0.0642 0.1665 0.1023 15-25° 40.78 41.15 1.01 0.0089 −0.0062 0.0027
    层状软弱岩组(D) 1.42 1 0.70 −0.3520 0.0043 −0.3477 25-35° 19.2 15.46 0.81 −0.2170 0.0453 −0.1717
    松散岩组(E) 0.9 1.75 1.94 0.6658 −0.0086 0.6572 35-45° 3.83 2 0.52 −0.6514 0.0189 −0.6325




    0-50 m 1.01 2.99 2.96 1.0855 −0.0202 1.0652 45-69° 0.34 0 0.00 0.0000 0.0034 0.0034
    50-100 m 1.01 1.25 1.24 0.2158 −0.0024 0.2133



    <50 m 6 6.8 1.13 0.1252 −0.0086 0.1166
    100-300 m 4.06 8.73 2.15 0.7659 −0.0499 0.7160 50-100 m 5.91 7.05 1.19 0.1763 −0.0122 0.1642
    300-500 m 4.05 7.48 1.85 0.6157 −0.0365 0.5792 100-300 m 22.56 29.47 1.31 0.2673 −0.0935 0.1738
    500-1000 m 9.83 10.47 1.07 0.0640 −0.0072 0.0567 300-500 m 19.88 20.4 1.03 0.0260 −0.0066 0.0194
    >1000 m 80.05 69.08 0.86 −0.1475 0.4388 0.2912 500-1000 m 31.79 27.96 0.88 −0.1284 0.0546 −0.0737

    <800 m 10.45 9.73 0.93 −0.0717 0.0080 −0.0637 >1000 m 13.86 8.31 0.60 −0.5113 0.0624 −0.4489
    88-1100 m 14.44 14.46 1.00 0.0020 −0.0003 0.0016



    <50 m 4.63 7.23 1.56 0.4464 −0.0277 0.4187
    1100-1300 m 10.94 7.98 0.73 −0.3157 0.0327 −0.2830 50-100 m 4.55 7.48 1.64 0.4968 −0.0312 0.4656
    1300-1500 m 13.62 17.71 1.30 0.2630 −0.0486 0.2144 100-300 m 17.11 26.43 1.54 0.4354 −0.1194 0.3160
    1500-1700 m 14.53 18.7 1.29 0.2528 −0.0501 0.2027 300-500 m 15.02 19.2 1.28 0.2459 −0.0505 0.1954
    1700-1900 m 11.14 18.95 1.70 0.5317 −0.0921 0.4396 500-1000 m 28.64 25.19 0.88 −0.1286 0.0473 −0.0813
    1900-2100 m 8.94 10.22 1.14 0.1340 −0.0142 0.1198 >1000 m 30.04 14.46 0.48 −0.7315 0.2013 −0.5302
    2100-2500 m 11.43 2 0.17 −1.7462 0.1013 −1.6449
    林地(A) 70.37 47.38 0.67 −0.3959 0.5752 0.1793
    2500-3200 m 4.52 0.25 0.06 −2.8976 0.0438 −2.8539 灌木(B) 0.4 0.5 1.25 0.2097 −0.0009 0.2087

    北东(NE) 14.73 17.96 1.22 0.1979 −0.0385 0.1594 草地(C) 13.55 14.46 1.07 0.0655 −0.0107 0.0548
    东(E) 13.72 20.95 1.53 0.4236 −0.0876 0.3360 耕地(D) 11.34 26.18 2.31 0.8378 −0.1834 0.6544
    南东(SE) 12.99 14.21 1.09 0.0902 −0.0142 0.0760 建筑(E) 0.64 2.49 3.89 1.3701 −0.0189 1.3512
    南(S) 12.73 12.22 0.96 −0.0409 0.0058 −0.0351 裸地(F) 3.47 8.98 2.59 0.9509 −0.0588 0.8921
    南西(SW) 10.93 7.23 0.66 −0.4129 0.0407 −0.3722 开阔水域(G) 0.22 0 0.00 0.0000 0.0022 0.0022
    西(W) 10.43 6.48 0.62 −0.4757 0.0431 −0.4325
    北西(NW) 11.34 8.23 0.73 −0.3206 0.0345 −0.2861
    北(N) 13.14 12.72 0.97 −0.0323 0.0048 −0.0275
    下载: 导出CSV

    表  3  地质灾害易发性分区表

    Table  3.   Geological hazard susceptibility zoning table

    易发性分区面积(km2占总面积(%)灾点数灾点比(%)
    1532.9436.1129774.06
    2119.0749.929924.69
    592.7213.9751.25
    下载: 导出CSV
  • [1] 曹慧,何政伟,陈亮. 云南某县地质灾害与土地利用类型相关性分析[J]. 测绘科学,2007,32(2):114 − 115. [CAO Hui,HE Zhengwei,CHEN Liang. The relevancy analysis of geological hazard and land-use types in some County of Yunnan Province[J]. Science of Surveying and Mapping,2007,32(2):114 − 115. (in Chinese with English abstract) doi: 10.3771/j.issn.1009-2307.2007.02.041

    CAO Hui, HE Zhengwei, CHEN Liang. The relevancy analysis of geological hazard and land-use types in some County of Yunnan Province[J]. Science of Surveying and Mapping, 2007, 322): 114115. (in Chinese with English abstract) doi: 10.3771/j.issn.1009-2307.2007.02.041
    [2] 仲冰. 云南省新平县滑坡灾害风险评估研究[D]. 北京:中国地质大学(北京),2008. [ZHONG Bing. Study on risk assessment of landslide disaster in Xinping County,Yunnan Province[D]. Beijing:China University of Geosciences,2008. (in Chinese with English abstract)

    ZHONG Bing. Study on risk assessment of landslide disaster in Xinping County, Yunnan Province[D]. Beijing: China University of Geosciences, 2008. (in Chinese with English abstract)
    [3] 徐为. 基于区域风险评估的降雨型地质灾害监测预警方法研究——以云南哀牢山新平县为例[D]. 北京:中国科学院大学,2013. [XU Wei. Study on monitoring and early warning method of rainfall geological disasters based on regional risk assessment:A case study of Xinping County,ailao mountain,Yunnan Province[D]. Beijing:University of Chinese Academy of Sciences,2013. (in Chinese with English abstract)

    XU Wei. Study on monitoring and early warning method of rainfall geological disasters based on regional risk assessment: A case study of Xinping County, ailao mountain, Yunnan Province[D]. Beijing: University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, 2013. (in Chinese with English abstract)
    [4] 康杰. 云南新平县地质灾害形成机制及易发性分区研究[D]. 昆明:昆明理工大学,2021. [KANG Jie. Study on formation mechanism and susceptibility zoning of geological disasters in Xinping County,Yunnan Province[D]. Kunming:Kunming University of Science and Technology,2021. (in Chinese with English abstract)

    KANG Jie. Study on formation mechanism and susceptibility zoning of geological disasters in Xinping County, Yunnan Province[D]. Kunming: Kunming University of Science and Technology, 2021. (in Chinese with English abstract)
    [5] 金德山. 县域地质灾害调查是构筑地灾防治工作体系的基石——以云南省为例[J]. 中国地质灾害与防治学报,2005,16(3):28 − 30. [JIN Deshan. County territory investigation of geo-disaster is the footstone of geo-disaster control system:Taking the Yunnan Province as a example[J]. The Chinese Journal of Geological Hazard and Control,2005,16(3):28 − 30. (in Chinese with English abstract) doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1003-8035.2005.03.007

    JIN Deshan. County territory investigation of geo-disaster is the footstone of geo-disaster control system: Taking the Yunnan Province as a example[J]. The Chinese Journal of Geological Hazard and Control, 2005, 163): 2830. (in Chinese with English abstract) doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1003-8035.2005.03.007
    [6] BONHAM-CARTER G,AGTERBERG F,WRIGHT D. Weights of evidence modelling:A new approach to mapping mineral potentia[J]. Paper - Geological Survey of Canada,1990:171 − 183.
    [7] AGTERBERG F P. Combining indicator patterns in weights of evidence modeling for resource evaluation[J]. Nonrenewable Resources,1992,1(1):39 − 50. doi: 10.1007/BF01782111
    [8] AGTERBERG F P,BONHARN-CARTER G F. Weights of evidence modeling and weighted logistic regression for mineral potential mapping[M]//Computers in Geology - 25 Years of Progress. Oxford:Oxford University Press,1994
    [9] Lusted Lee B. An Introduction to Medical Decision Making[J]. American Journal of Physical Medicine & Rehabilitation,1970,49(5):322.
    [10] SPIEGELHALTER D J,KNILL-JONES R P. Statistical and knowledge-based approaches to clinical decision-support systems,with an application in gastroenterology[J]. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A (General),1984,147(1):35. doi: 10.2307/2981737
    [11] 杨华阳,许向宁,杨鸿发. 基于证据权法的九寨沟地震滑坡危险性评价[J]. 中国地质灾害与防治学报,2020,31(3):20 − 29. [YANG Huayang,XU Xiangning,YANG Hongfa. The Jiuzhaigou co-seismic landslide hazard assessment based on weight of evidence method[J]. The Chinese Journal of Geological Hazard and Control,2020,31(3):20 − 29. (in Chinese with English abstract) doi: 10.16031/j.cnki.issn.1003-8035.2020.03.03

    YANG Huayang, XU Xiangning, YANG Hongfa. The Jiuzhaigou co-seismic landslide hazard assessment based on weight of evidence method[J]. The Chinese Journal of Geological Hazard and Control, 2020, 313): 2029. (in Chinese with English abstract) doi: 10.16031/j.cnki.issn.1003-8035.2020.03.03
    [12] 闫怡秋,杨志华,张绪教,等. 基于加权证据权模型的青藏高原东部巴塘断裂带滑坡易发性评价[J]. 现代地质,2021,35(1):26 − 37. [YAN Yiqiu,YANG Zhihua,ZHANG Xujiao,et al. Landslide susceptibility assessment based on weight-of-evidence modeling of the Batang fault zone,eastern Tibetan Plateau[J]. Geoscience,2021,35(1):26 − 37. (in Chinese with English abstract) doi: 10.19657/j.geoscience.1000-8527.2020.091

    YAN Yiqiu, YANG Zhihua, ZHANG Xujiao, et al. Landslide susceptibility assessment based on weight-of-evidence modeling of the Batang fault zone, eastern Tibetan Plateau[J]. Geoscience, 2021, 351): 2637. (in Chinese with English abstract) doi: 10.19657/j.geoscience.1000-8527.2020.091
    [13] 刘璐瑶,高惠瑛. 基于证据权与Logistic回归模型耦合的滑坡易发性评价[J]. 工程地质学报,2023,31(1):165 − 175. [LIU Luyao,GAO Huiying. Landslide susceptibility evaluation based on the coupling of evidence weight and Logistic regression model[J]. Journal of Engineering Geology,2023,31(1):165 − 175. (in Chinese) doi: 10.13544/j.cnki.jeg.2020-482

    LIU Luyao, GAO Huiying. Landslide susceptibility evaluation based on the coupling of evidence weight and Logistic regression model[J]. Journal of Engineering Geology, 2023, 311): 165175. (in Chinese) doi: 10.13544/j.cnki.jeg.2020-482
    [14] 黄发明,石雨,欧阳慰平,等. 基于证据权和卡方自动交互检测决策树的滑坡易发性预测[J]. 土木与环境工程学报(中英文),2022,44(5):16 − 28. [HUANG Faming,SHI Yu,OUYANG Weiping,et al. Landslide susceptibility prediction modeling based on weight of evidence and Chi-square automatic interactive detection decision tree[J]. Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering,2022,44(5):16 − 28. (in Chinese with English abstract)

    HUANG Faming, SHI Yu, OUYANG Weiping, et al. Landslide susceptibility prediction modeling based on weight of evidence and Chi-square automatic interactive detection decision tree[J]. Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering, 2022, 445): 1628. (in Chinese with English abstract)
    [15] 白光顺,杨雪梅,朱杰勇,等. 基于证据权法的昆明五华区地质灾害易发性评价[J]. 中国地质灾害与防治学报,2022,33(5):128 − 138. [BAI Guangshun,YANG Xuemei,ZHU Jieyong,et al. Vulnerability assessment of geological disasters in Wuhua district of Kunming based on the evidence right method[J]. The Chinese Journal of Geological Hazard and Control,2022,33(5):128 − 138. (in Chinese)

    BAI Guangshun, YANG Xuemei, ZHU Jieyong, et al. Vulnerability assessment of geological disasters in Wuhua district of Kunming based on the evidence right method[J]. The Chinese Journal of Geological Hazard and Control, 2022, 335): 128138. (in Chinese)
    [16] 孙滨,祝传兵,康晓波,等. 基于信息量模型的云南东川泥石流易发性评价[J]. 中国地质灾害与防治学报,2022,33(5):119 − 127. [SUN Bin,ZHU Chuanbing,KANG Xiaobo,et al. Susceptibility assessment of debris flows based on information model in Dongchuan,Yunnan Province[J]. The Chinese Journal of Geological Hazard and Control,2022,33(5):119 − 127. (in Chinese with English abstract)

    SUN Bin, ZHU Chuanbing, KANG Xiaobo, et al. Susceptibility assessment of debris flows based on information model in Dongchuan, Yunnan Province[J]. The Chinese Journal of Geological Hazard and Control, 2022, 335): 119127. (in Chinese with English abstract)
    [17] 云南地质环境监测总站、云南地质工程第二勘察院. 云南省新平县地质灾害调查与区划报告[R],2003. [Yunnan Geological Environment Monitoring Station,The Second Survey Institute of Geological engineering. Geological hazards survey and division in Xinping County,Yunnan Province[R],2003. (in Chinese)

    Yunnan Geological Environment Monitoring Station, The Second Survey Institute of Geological engineering. Geological hazards survey and division in Xinping County, Yunnan Province[R], 2003. (in Chinese)
    [18] 尹洪峰,谢博,赵体,等. 云南省新平县地质灾害发育特征及防治对策研究[J]. 长春工程学院学报(自然科学版),2006,7(2):54 − 56. [YIN Hongfeng,XIEBo,ZHAOTi,et al. Research on developing characteristics and preventing measures of geology disaster in Xinping Country of Yunnan Province[J]. Journal of Changchun Institute of Technology (Natural Sciences Edition),2006,7(2):54 − 56. (in Chinese with English abstract) doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1009-8984.2006.02.018

    YIN Hongfeng, XIEBo, ZHAOTi, et al. Research on developing characteristics and preventing measures of geology disaster in Xinping Country of Yunnan Province[J]. Journal of Changchun Institute of Technology (Natural Sciences Edition), 2006, 72): 5456. (in Chinese with English abstract) doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1009-8984.2006.02.018
    [19] 地质灾害风险调查评价技术要求,(1∶ 50000 )2020.3. .
    [20] HOYER A,KUSS O. Meta-analysis of full ROC curves with flexible parametric distributions of diagnostic test values[J]. Research Synthesis Methods,2020,11(2):301 − 313. doi: 10.1002/jrsm.1395
    [21] WALKER S P. The ROC curve redefined—optimizing sensitivity (and specificity) to the lived reality of cancer[J]. New England Journal of Medicine,2019,380(17):1594 − 1595. doi: 10.1056/NEJMp1814951
    [22] OMAR L,IVRISSIMTZIS I. Using theoretical ROC curves for analysing machine learning binary classifiers[J]. Pattern Recognition Letters,2019,128:447 − 451. doi: 10.1016/j.patrec.2019.10.004
  • 加载中
图(5) / 表(3)
计量
  • 文章访问数:  30
  • HTML全文浏览量:  1
  • PDF下载量:  8
  • 被引次数: 0
出版历程
  • 收稿日期:  2022-12-03
  • 录用日期:  2023-09-19
  • 修回日期:  2022-12-04
  • 网络出版日期:  2023-10-10

目录

    /

    返回文章
    返回