ISSN 1003-8035 CN 11-2852/P
    张平平,何书,李滨. 江西丘陵山区公路地质灾害危险性评价多耦合模型对比研究[J]. 中国地质灾害与防治学报,2024,35(4): 135-145. DOI: 10.16031/j.cnki.issn.1003-8035.202309011
    引用本文: 张平平,何书,李滨. 江西丘陵山区公路地质灾害危险性评价多耦合模型对比研究[J]. 中国地质灾害与防治学报,2024,35(4): 135-145. DOI: 10.16031/j.cnki.issn.1003-8035.202309011
    ZHANG Pingping,HE Shu,LI Bin. Comparative study of multi-coupling models for geohazard risk assessment along mountain highway in the hilly areas of Jiangxi Province[J]. The Chinese Journal of Geological Hazard and Control,2024,35(4): 135-145. DOI: 10.16031/j.cnki.issn.1003-8035.202309011
    Citation: ZHANG Pingping,HE Shu,LI Bin. Comparative study of multi-coupling models for geohazard risk assessment along mountain highway in the hilly areas of Jiangxi Province[J]. The Chinese Journal of Geological Hazard and Control,2024,35(4): 135-145. DOI: 10.16031/j.cnki.issn.1003-8035.202309011

    江西丘陵山区公路地质灾害危险性评价多耦合模型对比研究

    Comparative study of multi-coupling models for geohazard risk assessment along mountain highway in the hilly areas of Jiangxi Province

    • 摘要: 山区公路沿线地质灾害发育,影响山区城镇居民交通出行和生命财产安全。危险性评价可以综合分析地质灾害孕灾环境和致灾因子的贡献特征,对于公路防灾减灾具有重要的指导作用。以江西省S223省道竹头坑子—渠坎下段为例,基于频率比(frequency ratio,FR),耦合熵指数(entropy index,EI)、层次分析法(analytic hierarchy process,AHP)及二者组合权(EI-AHP),构建4种地质灾害危险性评价模型;针对公路沿线地质环境与地质灾害发育特征,选取自然坡度、坡向、地形起伏度、坡面形态、切坡高度、切坡坡度、地层岩性、断层与斜坡的关系等8个评价因子作为危险性评价指标,以斜坡单元作为评价单元,采用FR量化评价因子,结合AHP、EI计算评价因子的主客观权重,依托ArcGIS平台得到基于FR的多耦合模型,绘制不同评价模型的公路沿线地质灾害危险性分区图。结果表明:FR、EI-FR、AHP-FR及EI-AHP-FR 4个评价模型的AUC值分别为0.746,0.811,0.836,0.833,表明AHP-FR评价模型的预测精度最高,能有效对公路沿线地质灾害进行危险性评价;最终划分江西省S223省道竹头坑子—渠坎下段高危险区、较高危险区、中危险区、较低危险区、低危险区的面积依次为0.295,0.570,1.509,0.354,1.732 km2,分别占全区总面积的6.66%、12.79%、33.86%、7.97%、38.71%。研究结果可为公路的安全建设和正常运营提供科学的地质参考依据。

       

      Abstract: Geological hazards along mountain highways affect the transportation and safety of residents in mountainous towns. Risk assessment comprehensively analyzes the contributing characteristics of the geological hazard-prone environment and triggering factors, which is crucial for highway disaster prevention and mitigation. Taking the lower section of the provincial highway Zhutoukengzi - Dukanxia road (S223) in Jiangxi Province as an example, four types of geologic hazard evaluation models were constructed based on frequency ratio (FR), coupled entropy index (EI), hierarchical analysis method (AHP) and the combination of the two (EI- AHP). For the development characteristics of the geological environment and geologic hazards along the highway, the natural slopes were selected and the geologic hazards are evaluated. AHP), to construct four kinds of geohazard risk evaluation models. For the geological environment and geohazard development characteristics along the highway, eight evaluation factors, such as natural slope, slope direction, topographic relief, slope morphology, slope cutting height, slope cutting gradient, stratigraphic lithology, and the relationship between faults and slopes were selected as the risk evaluation indexes, and the slope units were selected as the evaluation unit, and FR was used to quantify the evaluation factors, and AHP and EI were combined to calculate the evaluation factors. AHP and EI were used to calculate the subjective and objective weights of the evaluation factors, and the multi-coupling model based on FR was obtained by relying on the ArcGIS platform, and the geohazard hazard zoning maps along the highway with different evaluation models were drawn. The results show that the AUC values of the four evaluation models, FR, EI-FR, AHP-FR and EI-AHP-FR, are 0.746, 0.811, 0.836, 0.833, respectively, indicating that the AHP-FR evaluation model has the highest prediction accuracy and can effectively evaluate the risk of geologic hazards along the highway. The areas classified as high-risk, relatively high-risk, moderate-risk, relatively low-risk, and low-risk zones for the lower section of the Zhutoukengzi-Qukan road in Jiangxi Province were 0.295 km2, 0.570 km2, 1.509 km2, 0.354 km2, and 1.732 km2, respectively, accounting for 6.66%, 12.79%, 33.86%, 7.97%, and 38.71% of the total area. This study provided a comprehensive zoning of potential geological hazards along the S223 road, offering scientific geological reference for the safe construction and operation of roads.

       

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