ISSN 1003-8035 CN 11-2852/P
    魏平新,郑志文,周志华,等. 基于斜坡失稳动力预警模型的广东省暴雨型浅层滑坡灾害气象风险预警初探[J]. 中国地质灾害与防治学报,2024,35(2): 1-9. DOI: 10.16031/j.cnki.issn.1003-8035.202312040
    引用本文: 魏平新,郑志文,周志华,等. 基于斜坡失稳动力预警模型的广东省暴雨型浅层滑坡灾害气象风险预警初探[J]. 中国地质灾害与防治学报,2024,35(2): 1-9. DOI: 10.16031/j.cnki.issn.1003-8035.202312040
    WEI Pingxin,ZHENG Zhiwen,ZHOU Zhihua,et al. Preliminary analysis on risk early warning for rainfall-induced shallow landslides in Guangdong Province based on a dynamic slope instability model[J]. The Chinese Journal of Geological Hazard and Control,2024,35(2): 1-9. DOI: 10.16031/j.cnki.issn.1003-8035.202312040
    Citation: WEI Pingxin,ZHENG Zhiwen,ZHOU Zhihua,et al. Preliminary analysis on risk early warning for rainfall-induced shallow landslides in Guangdong Province based on a dynamic slope instability model[J]. The Chinese Journal of Geological Hazard and Control,2024,35(2): 1-9. DOI: 10.16031/j.cnki.issn.1003-8035.202312040

    基于斜坡失稳动力预警模型的广东省暴雨型浅层滑坡灾害气象风险预警初探

    Preliminary analysis on risk early warning for rainfall-induced shallow landslides in Guangdong Province based on a dynamic slope instability model

    • 摘要: 针对县级地质灾害气象风险预警面临的精度及模型建设问题,根据广东省地质灾害主要发生在坡面残坡积浅表层的突出特点,通过对典型地质灾害物理模拟试验和数值模拟研究广东省浅表层斜坡失稳发生机理。由此,通过对研究区划分斜坡单元,按各斜坡单元的坡长、坡度、岩土类型、分层及其关键物理力学参数开展斜坡单元概化分类与数值建模,构建斜坡失稳动力预警模型,初步探索了坡面单元尺度下地质灾害气象风险预警斜坡失稳动力学预警技术应用。

       

      Abstract: In light of the accuracy and model construction challenges in county-level meteorological risk early warning for geo-hazards, and considering the prominent characteristics that these geo-hazards mainly occur on the shallow surface of residual slopes, the mechanism of shallow surface slope instability in Guangdong Province was studied through physical simulation experiments and numerical simulations of typical geo-hazards. Subsequently, by dividing the study area into slope units, we developed a generalized classification and numerical modeling of these units based on parameters such as slope length, slope gradient, rock and soil type, stratification, and key physical and mechanical parameters of each slope unit. The slope instability dynamics warning model was then constructed, and the application of dynamic early-warning technology for slope instability in meteorological risk early warning for geological hazards was preliminarily explored at the scale of slope units.

       

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