ISSN 1003-8035 CN 11-2852/P
    张平平,李滨,高浩源,等. 雅鲁藏布江下游多雄河流域高位雪崩易发性区划研究[J]. 中国地质灾害与防治学报,2024,35(6): 1-14. DOI: 10.16031/j.cnki.issn.1003-8035.202402021
    引用本文: 张平平,李滨,高浩源,等. 雅鲁藏布江下游多雄河流域高位雪崩易发性区划研究[J]. 中国地质灾害与防治学报,2024,35(6): 1-14. DOI: 10.16031/j.cnki.issn.1003-8035.202402021
    ZHANG Pingping,LI Bin,GAO Haoyuan,et al. Research on high-altitude avalanche Susceptibility Area Zoning based on informativeness modeling in the Duoxiong River Basin, Tibet[J]. The Chinese Journal of Geological Hazard and Control,2024,35(6): 1-14. DOI: 10.16031/j.cnki.issn.1003-8035.202402021
    Citation: ZHANG Pingping,LI Bin,GAO Haoyuan,et al. Research on high-altitude avalanche Susceptibility Area Zoning based on informativeness modeling in the Duoxiong River Basin, Tibet[J]. The Chinese Journal of Geological Hazard and Control,2024,35(6): 1-14. DOI: 10.16031/j.cnki.issn.1003-8035.202402021

    雅鲁藏布江下游多雄河流域高位雪崩易发性区划研究

    Research on high-altitude avalanche Susceptibility Area Zoning based on informativeness modeling in the Duoxiong River Basin, Tibet

    • 摘要: 随着全球气候变暖,冰雪融化速率加剧,雪崩灾害事件频发,严重威胁高寒山区的人民生命财产和交通廊道安全。以雅鲁藏布江下游多雄河流域为研究对象,基于遥感解译和野外调查,识别并验证了70个雪崩点,运用皮尔逊相关系数进行共线性分析,综合选取了高程、坡度、坡向、坡面曲率、地表切割深度、地表覆盖类型、植被覆盖度、TWI、年平均最低气温、NDSI等10个评价因子构建雪崩易发性评价体系,通过ArcGIS平台使用信息量模型进行雪崩易发性分区,将研究区分为低易发、中易发、高易发区三类,并采用ROC曲线进行了精度检验。结果表明,雪崩易发性评价模型AUC值为0.835,具有较好的预测精度;低易发、中易发、高易发区面积分别为60.61 km2、74.33 km2、96.91 km2,分别占研究区总面积的26.14%、32.06%、41.80%,其中高易发区主要分布在中高及高海拔地区,以多雄拉山、阳嘎拉、拉格最为典型。最后依据主-被动防御措施相结合提出天-地一体化监测预警技术和相应建筑结构,该研究可为多雄河流域工程建设及防灾减灾提供技术支撑和科学参考。

       

      Abstract: With global climate warming, the rate of snow and ice melting has accelerated, leading to frequent avalanche disasters, which seriously threaten people's lives and properties and the safety of transportation corridors in alpine mountainous areas. Taking the Daxiong River Basin downstream of the Yarlung Zangbo River as the research object, 70 avalanche points were identified and verified based on remote sensing interpretation and field investigation. Pearson correlation coefficient analysis was used for conducting covariance analysis, and 10 evaluation factors including elevation, slope, slope direction, ground curvature, surface cutting depth, surface cover type, vegetation coverage, TWI, average annual minimum temperature, and NDSI were comprehensively selected to construct an avalanche susceptibility evaluation system. The information value model was used for avalanche susceptibility zoning on the ArcGIS platform, dividing the study area into three categories: low susceptibility, medium susceptibility, and high susceptibility zones, and accuracy verification was conducted using ROC curve. The results show that the AUC value of the avalanche susceptibility evaluation model is 0.835, indicating good predictive accuracy. The areas of low, medium, and high susceptibility zones are 60.61 km2, 74.33 km2, and 96.91 km2, respectively, accounting for 26.14%, 32.06%, and 41.80% of the total area of the study area. High susceptible zones are mainly located in mid-to-high and high-altitude areas, with Mount Duoxiongla, YangGaLa, and LaGe being typical. Finally, based on the combination of active and passive defense measures, integrated monitoring and early warning techniques, and corresponding architectural structures are proposed, providing technical support and scientific reference for engineering construction and disaster prevention and mitigation in the Duoxiong River Basin.

       

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