ISSN 1003-8035 CN 11-2852/P

    基于确定性系数模型的密云区公路边坡灾害主控因素分析

    Analysis of dominant controlling factors for highway slope hazards in Miyun District using the certainty factor model

    • 摘要: 公路边坡灾害作为影响山区交通基础设施安全的重要隐患,其主控因素的科学识别是灾害风险评估与防治的关键。本研究以北京市密云区为研究区域,基于确定性系数模型,系统分析了公路边坡灾害的主控因素及其量化影响程度。首先,在详细分析密云区地质环境条件和灾害历史数据特征的基础上,筛选出影响边坡稳定性的潜在因素。然后,利用确定性系数模型的数理统计原理,计算各因素与边坡灾害发生的相关性系数(CF值),分析各因素对灾害的“促进”或“抑制”作用及贡献度。进一步,通过敏感性指数来探究各因子对灾害发生的影响程度,从而识别出主控因素和灾害易发区间。研究表明:密云区公路边坡灾害的主控因素有9个,按照影响程度大小依次为公路扰动强度、土地利用类型、植被覆盖指数、距水系距离、高程、地形起伏度、工程岩组、距断裂距离和坡度,其中公路扰动强度、土地利用类型、植被覆盖指数和距水系距离四个因子影响最大。本研究通过确定性系数模型实现了对密云区公路边坡灾害主控因素的定量化分析,为区域灾害风险区划和防治措施优化提供了科学依据,也为类似地质环境区的边坡灾害研究提供了方法参考。

       

      Abstract: Highway slope hazards represent a significant hidden risk to the safety of transportation infrastructure in mountainous areas. Scientific identification of their dominant controlling factors is key to disaster risk assessment and prevention. Taking Miyun District of Beijing as the study area, this research systematically analyzed the dominant controlling factors of highway slope hazards and their quantitative influence based on the Certainty Factor Method. First, based on the detailed analysis of the geological environment conditions and the characteristics of disaster historical data in Miyun District, the potential factors affecting slope stability were screened out. Then, using the statistical principle of the Certainty Factor model, the correlation coefficients (CF values) between each factor and slope hazard occurence were calculated to assess the "promoting" or "inhibiting" effects and contribution of each factor. Furthermore, a sensitivity index was employed to evaluate the degree of influence of each factor on hazard occurrence, thereby identifying the dominant controlling factors and disaster-prone zones. The results shows that there are nine main controlling factors of highway slope hazards in Miyun District, ranked by influence as follows: highway disturbance intensity, land use type, normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), distance from the water system, elevation, topographic relief, engineering rock group, distance from the fault and slope, among which the four factors of highway disturbance intensity, land use type, NDVI and distance from the water system exert the greatest influence. This study achieves a quantitative analysis of the dominant controlling factors of highway slope hazards in Miyun District using the Certainty Factor model, providing a scientific basis for regional hazard risk zoning and optimization of prevention and control measures, and also provides a methodological reference for slope hazard studies in similar geological environments.

       

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