Hazard analysis of debris flows based on different evaluation units and disaster entropy：A case study in Wudu section of the Bailong river basin
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摘要: 白龙江流域为泥石流等地质灾害密集分布区。2020年8月由于强降雨激发，白龙江流域武都段发生了大规模的群发性泥石流灾害，造成严重损失。文章以白龙江流域甘肃省陇南市武都段（宕昌县两河口乡—武都区桔柑镇）为研究区，通过野外实地考察，选取流域面积、流域形状系数、平均坡度、沟谷密度、物源参照值（HI）、岩性、流域中心距活动断层距离、一小时最大降雨量、植被覆盖度作为泥石流危险性评价因子。基于灾害熵理论，分别以泥石流单沟和小流域单元作为评价单元，利用ArcGIS软件，进行区域泥石流危险性评价。分析结果表明，研究区内泥石流沟大多数都属于中、高危险性。致灾因子中岩性、物源参照值（HI）、距断层距离、植被覆盖度及平均坡度的权重最大,与实际考察结果一致。且以小流域单元作为评价单元的评价结果更符合研究区的泥石流发育情况。Abstract: The Bailong river basin is a densely distributed area of geological disasters such as debris flow. In August 2020, due to the stimulation of heavy rainfall, a large-scale group debris flow disaster occurred in Wudu section of Bailong river basin, causing serious losses. This paper takes the Wudu section (Lianghekou Township, Dangchang County to Jugan Town, Wudu District) of Longnan City in Gansu Province as the research area. Through field investigation, we selected the area of drainage basin, shape coefficient of basin, average slope, density of gully, reference value of material source (HI), lithology, distance between basin center and active fault, one hour maximum rainfall and vegetation coverage as debris flow hazard assessment factors. Taking single gully and small watershed units of debris flow as evaluation units, the regional debris flow hazard assessment is carried out by using ArcGIS software based on the theory of disaster entropy. The results show that most of the debris flows in the study area belong to medium and high hazard debris flow gullies. Some of the most heavily weighted disaster-causing factors like the weight of lithology, source reference value (HI), distance from fault, vegetation coverage and average slope are consistent with the actual investigation results. Moreover, the evaluation results of small watershed units are more consistent with the development of debris flow in the study area.
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Keywords:
- Bailong river basin /
- debris flow /
- disaster entropy /
- watershed unit /
- hazard
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图 3 评价因子分级图（泥石流沟为评价单元）
Figure 3. Grading of evaluation factors (debris flow gully as evaluation unit)
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图 4 泥石流沟危险性评价图（泥石流沟为评价单元）
Figure 4. Debris flow gully hazard assessment (debris flow gully as assessment unit)
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图 7 泥石流沟危险性评价图（小流域为评价单元）
Figure 7. Debris flow gully hazard assessment (small watershed as assessment unit)
表 1 数据介绍
Table 1 Data introduction
序号 数据 来源 1 DEM数据 http://www.gscloud.cn/ 2 一小时最大降雨量 甘肃省地质环境监测院 3 植被指数 http://www.geodata.cn/ 4 地质图 中国地质力学所 5 遥感影像 图新地球 
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表 2 研究区泥石流沟岩性分类表
Table 2 Lithology classification of debris flow gully in study area
岩性
分类坚硬块状
岩浆岩软弱中厚
层碎屑岩坚硬中厚
层碎屑岩松散软弱
堆积层及
冲洪积层较坚硬中
厚层-厚层
碳酸盐岩、
薄层板岩、
碎屑岩软弱-坚硬
中厚层-
厚层板岩、
碎屑岩赋值 1 3 5 7 8 10
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表 3 泥石流沟危险性评价指标标准化分级表
Table 3 Standardized classification table of debris flow gully hazard assessment index
评价指标 标准化赋值 1 2 3 流域面积/km2 >10 <3 3～10 流域形状系数 >1.5 1.3～1.5 <1.3 平均坡度/(°） 0～20 20～30 >30 沟谷密度/(km·km−2) <0.5 0.5～1 >1 HI <0.45 >0.60 0.45～0.6 岩性因子（DSF） <5 5～7 >7 距断层距离/km >3 1～3 <1 降雨/mm <36 36～38 >38 NDVI >0.4 0.25～0.4 <0.25
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表 4 评价指标灾害熵及其权重
Table 4 Evaluation index disaster entropy and its weight
评价指标 流域面积 流域形状系数 平均坡度 沟谷密度 物源参照值 岩性 距断层距离 降雨量 NDVI 灾害熵 12.994670 12.969065 13.502476 12.941899 14.539949 14.707807 13.840045 12.426344 13.758987 信息效用值 −11.994670 −11.969065 −12.502476 −11.941899 −13.539949 −13.707807 −12.840045 −11.426344 −12.758987 评价指标的权重 0.106448 0.106221 0.110954 0.105979 0.120162 0.121651 0.113950 0.101404 0.113231
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表 5 评价指标灾害熵及其权重
Table 5 Evaluation index disaster entropy and its weight
评价指标 流域面积 流域形状系数 平均坡度 沟谷密度 物源参照值 岩性 距断层距离 降雨量 NDVI 灾害熵 46.777098 39.015534 42.694335 42.127049 40.254309 49.717080 45.202859 40.145965 42.355624 信息效用值 −45.777098 −38.015534 −41.694335 −41.127049 −39.254309 −48.717080 −44.202859 −39.145965 −41.355624 评价指标的权重 0.120692 0.100228 0.109927 0.108432 0.103494 0.128443 0.116541 0.103209 0.109034
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