Susceptibility analysis on influencing factors of rockfalls and landslides in Tibet
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摘要: 西藏地区地形地貌复杂，构造活动强烈，气候条件多样，地质灾害频发，对全区经济建设和社会发展的影响日趋显著。其中，崩塌、滑坡是西藏地区常见的地质灾害，为了定量分析研究区内崩塌、滑坡影响因子的敏感性，文中基于GIS与确定性系数分析方法，选取了坡度、坡向、地形起伏度、坡形、高程、距地质构造距离、河网密度、工程地质岩组等8个因子开展了崩塌、滑坡影响因子敏感性分析。分析结果表明：（1）西藏地区崩塌、滑坡影响因子高敏感性区间为：斜坡坡度大于30°，坡向为南东向、南向、南西向，地形起伏度在200～800 m/km2，坡形为凹形坡，高程在1 500～4 500 m，距地质构造距离0～3 km，河网密度>0.5 km/km2，代号为YJ2、TS1、TS2、BZ1的岩组，灾害与影响因子之间表现出较好的相关性。（2）影响因子间的敏感性大小：坡度>工程地质岩组>高程>坡形>河网密度>地形起伏度>坡向>距地质构造距离。研究结果对西藏地区崩塌、滑坡易发性评价工作提供了参考。Abstract: Geological disasters such as rockfalls and landslides are common in the Tibet region due to its complex topography, strong tectonic movements, and diverse climate conditions. These disasters have an increasingly significant impact on the region's economic construction and social development. In order to assess the susceptibility of rockfalls and landslides in a quantitative manner, this study selected eight factors, including slope, aspect, topographic relief, slope shape, elevation, distance to fault, river density, and engineering geological group, to conduct the sensitivity analysis of the influencing factors by applying GIS and certainty factor analysis methods. The research shows that there is a direct correlation between rockfall, landslide and influencing factors, and the susceptibility of these hazards is high in the areas with: (1) a slope greater than 30°, (2) aspect facing southeast, south, or southwest direction, (3) topographic relief of 200~800 m/km2, (4) concave slope, (5) elevation between 1500 and 4500 m, (6) distance between 0 and 3 km to fault, (7) river density greater than 0.5 km/km2, (8) lithologies identified by the codes of YJ2, TS1, TS2, and BZ1. The susceptibility of the factors is ranked in descending order as slope > engineering geological group > elevation > slope shape > river density > topographic relief > aspect > distance to fault. These results can be used as a reference for assessing the susceptibility of rockfalls and landslides in Tibet.
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Key words:
- Tibet region /
- rockfall /
- landslide /
- influencing factor /
- susceptibility analysis /
- certainty factor
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图 1 西藏地区崩塌滑坡灾害分布图
Figure 1. Distribution map of rockfalls and landslides in Tibet region
图 2 崩塌滑坡影响因子分布图
Figure 2. Distribution map of influencing factors for rockfalls and landslides in Tibet region
图 3 崩塌滑坡影响因子各分类敏感性分布图
注：红色柱状表示CFij值为正，绿色柱状表示CFij值为负。
Figure 3. Distribution curve and histogram of each classified influencing factor for rockfalls and landslides in Tibet region
表 1 影响因子分级标准及确定性系数值
Table 1. Classification standard for influencing factors and value of certainty factors
影响因子 因子分级 灾害点/处 PiPj/（处·km−2） CFij CFi 坡度/ （°） [0，5] 0 0.000 00 −1.000 0.79 (5，10] 7 0.000 04 −0.990 (10，15] 55 0.000 41 −0.894 (15，20] 115 0.001 00 −0.741 (20，25] 233 0.002 21 −0.425 (25，30] 374 0.003 90 0.015 (30，35] 565 0.007 03 0.456 (35，40] 724 0.012 71 0.701 (40，45] 855 0.026 24 0.857 (45，50 779 0.048 39 0.924 (50，55] 576 0.074 80 0.952 >55 434 0.070 67 0.949 坡向 平地 0 0.000 00 −1.000 0.36 北向 473 0.003 01 −0.217 北东 434 0.002 88 −0.250 东向 564 0.003 75 −0.022 南东 676 0.004 68 0.180 南向 795 0.005 08 0.245 南西 778 0.005 15 0.255 西向 550 0.003 73 −0.030 北西 447 0.003 15 −0.181 地形起伏度/（ m·km−2） [0，100] 65 0.000 18 −0.952 0.49 (100，200] 378 0.001 71 −0.557 (200，300] 871 0.005 04 0.239 (300，400] 1 242 0.007 57 0.495 (400，500] 1 110 0.008 71 0.561 (500，600] 594 0.007 16 0.466 (600，700] 263 0.005 24 0.268 (700，800] 129 0.004 52 0.151 (800，900] 42 0.002 81 −0.270 >900 23 0.001 99 −0.483 坡形
（负值为凹形坡，
0为直线形坡，
正值为凸形坡，
负值越大坡形越凹，
正值越大坡形越凸）−4 41 0.048 35 0.924 0.59 −3 231 0.034 19 0.891 −2 918 0.016 77 0.774 −1 1 147 0.007 03 0.455 0 1 288 0.002 02 −0.475 1 741 0.002 89 −0.248 2 261 0.003 62 −0.058 3 84 0.002 71 −0.295 4 6 0.001 05 −0.728 高程/ m [0，1 000] 31 0.002 28 −0.407 0.68 (1 000，1 500] 34 0.003 30 −0.141 (1 500，2 000 113 0.010 31 0.630 (2 000～2 500] 121 0.011 36 0.664 (2 500，3 000] 297 0.023 65 0.841 (3 000，3 500 796 0.042 13 0.912 (3 500，4 000] 1 348 0.030 21 0.876 (4 000，4 500] 1 335 0.010 64 0.642 (4 500，5 000] 590 0.001 19 −0.691 >5 000 52 0.000 11 −0.972 距地质构造
距离/ km[0，1] 855 0.006 32 0.394 0.33 (1，2] 748 0.005 97 0.358 (2，3] 583 0.005 24 0.268 (3，4] 417 0.004 26 0.098 (4，5] 351 0.004 04 0.049 (5，6] 314 0.004 06 0.055 (6，7] 217 0.003 16 −0.177 (7，8] 128 0.002 11 −0.451 (8，9] 98 0.001 85 −0.520 (9，10] 95 0.002 04 −0.468 >10 911 0.002 49 −0.352 河网密度/（ km·km−2） [0.00，0.25] 339 0.000 64 −0.834 0.56 (0.25，0.50] 645 0.002 38 −0.380 (0.50，0.75] 1 574 0.006 97 0.451 (0.75，1.00 1 381 0.010 35 0.631 (1.00，1.25] 591 0.011 53 0.670 (1.25，1.50] 168 0.012 77 0.702 >1.50 19 0.007 37 0.481 工程地质岩组 坚硬块状中酸性岩岩组（YJ1） 16 0.000 08 −0.979 0.73 坚硬—较坚硬块状基性超基性岩岩组（YJ2） 904 0.057 63 0.937 坚硬—较坚硬层状块状火山岩组（YJ3） 120 0.002 64 −0.314 坚硬层状砂岩岩组（SX1） 51 0.000 31 −0.920 较坚硬—软弱层状砾岩、粉砂岩、泥岩岩组（SX2） 984 0.003 90 0.015 坚硬层状—块状弱岩溶化灰岩岩组（TS1） 1 047 0.016 22 0.766 坚硬—较坚硬层状弱岩溶化灰岩夹碎屑岩岩组（TS2） 898 0.006 85 0.441 坚硬—较坚硬块状混合岩岩组（BZ1） 556 0.012 67 0.700 较坚硬—较软弱层块状片岩、片麻岩岩组（BZ2） 29 0.000 15 −0.960 第四系松散岩组（Q） 112 0.001 09 −0.717 
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