Dynamic analysis and prediction of rear slope affected area of the Jianshanying landslide in Shuicheng County, Guizhou Province
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摘要: 2020年9月16日，受地下采动和降雨影响，贵州水城县发耳镇尖山营不稳定斜坡发生山体滑坡，约80万方的岩土体倾泻而下，在运动过程中破碎解体形成碎屑流。滑坡最大运动距离达到1 km，最大高差约300 m，摧毁了大量房屋和两条公路，所幸未造成人员伤亡。本文基于高精度无人机航测影像建立滑坡区三维数值模型，利用DAN3D动力分析软件对尖山营滑坡-碎屑流运动全过程开展数值模拟，分析了滑体动力学特征和堆积分布。在此基础上，利用反演确定的数值流变模型和参数，对尖山营不稳定斜坡潜在滑坡区开展致灾范围预测。研究成果为高位远程滑坡致灾范围预测和尖山营地区危险性评估提供了依据。Abstract: On September 16, 2020, the combination of mining activities and constant rainfall triggered a long runout landslide in Jianshanying area, Guizhou province, China, causing a landslide of approximately 800,000 m3 of rock and soil to slide down and form a debris flow. The maximum movement distance of the landslide reached 1 km, with a maximum height difference of about 300 m. Many houses and two roads were destroyed, fortunately without causing casualties. In this study, detailed field investigation combined with the UAV aerial photography were conducted to obtain the geological setting and the digital elevation model of the landslide region. Subsequently, the dynamic model DAN3D was utilized to study the dynamic characteristics and deposit distribution of the Jianshanying landslide. Simulated results were found to match the actual situation well, and the Frictional-Voellmy rheology was identified as an accurate tool for simulating the long runout landslide. Based on the numerical parameters determined from the inversion work, the sliding process and possible travel distance of the potential landslide were simulated. The findings from this study will be helpful aid in predicting landslide runout in high-altitude regions, particularly for the residents in the potential danger zone of the Jianshanying landslide.
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图 2 （a） 尖山营滑坡-碎屑流分区图 （b） 尖山营不稳定斜坡潜在滑体
Figure 2. Zoning partition at Jianshanying area of the (a) landslide-debris flow (b) potential landslide
图 3 尖山营滑坡剖面图（A-A’剖面）
Figure 3. Longitudinal cross-section geological profile of the Jianshanying landslide （section A-A’）
图 4 坡顶宽大裂缝
Figure 4. Aerial view of wide cracks at the top of the slope at Jianshanying area
图 6 尖山营滑坡-碎屑流运动过程不同时刻滑体堆积形态
Figure 6. Landslide accumulation distribution patterns for landslide-debris flow deposits of the Jianshanying landslide at different moments
图 7 尖山营滑坡-碎屑流运动过程不同时刻速度分布云图
Figure 7. Cloud map of velocity distribution of the landslide-debris flow movement in the Jianshanying landslide at different moments
图 8 尖山营潜在滑坡致灾范围预测
Figure 8. Prediction of affected area of the potential landslide at Jianshanying area
表 1 尖山营滑坡流变模型和参数取值
Table 1. Selected rheological models and parameter values of the Jianshanying landslide
流变模型 摩擦角 孔压系数 摩擦系数 湍流系数 滑源区 Frictional 27 0.5 − − 流通堆积区 Voellmy − − 0.18 600 
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